用水量组合预测模型的研究

为了给水资源规划提供依据，我们要对城市用水量进行预测，以期揭示其变化规律和发展趋势。本文从分析城市用水量变化规律着手，给出了城市用水量预测的常用模型，进而确定组合预测模型。通过引入层次分析法（AHP）确定组合预测权系数，将目前常用的用水量预测模型有机地结合起来，建立了用水量组合预测的结构模型。算例结果表明，该组合预测模型在预测准确性方面能得到改进，能对城市用水量进行有效地预测。

Research on Combination Forecast Model for Water-demand

The quantity of water that will be consumed should be forecast before the water policy is made. This article analyzes the water quantity that is consumed, builds models that normally are used to forecast the quantity of water that will be consumed, and decides the model of combination forecast. The weight coefficient is decided by AHP, which combines different structure models to build forecasting model for consumed water quantity. The results show that this forecast model have good forecasting precisions and can forecast the quantity of water consumed in city efficiently.