城市化与能源消费:动态关系计量与贡献度测算——基于甘肃省数据的实证分析

长期来看,甘肃省城市化水平与能源消费之间存在稳定同步上升的关系;而且这种长期同步上升关系在短期能够得到显著的修正;同时甘肃省城市化能Granger引起能源消费。虽然甘肃省城市化进程对能源消费的贡献作用比较小,但呈逐年增长趋势。因此调整城市化结构,提高城市能源的利用效率,降低对能源需求的增长程度是促进城市化与经济社会协调发展重要的途径。

Econometric Analysis of Dynamic Relationship and Contribution Measuring between Urbanization and Energy Consumption:Based on Gansu Province Data

There are not only long-run equilibrium but also short-term equilibrium between urbanization and energy consumption in Gansu Province,and this long-run equilibrium is adjusted by the short-term change.At the same time urbanization does Granger Cause energy consumption.Although the contribution which urbanization pull energy consumption is relatively small,the trend is increase year by year.Therefore,It is an important pathway for the harmony between urbanization and society economy to adjust the structure of urbanization,to improve energy using efficiency,to reduce reliance on energy demand.