河流生态恢复意愿调查居民支付与否的经济学分析——基于上海城市河流2010年和2006年数据的比较

意愿价值评估法(CVM)应用于生态服务价值评估时,零支付意愿的处理直接影响结果的估计值。我国特有的社会结构和发展阶段使得零支付意愿的原因复杂化、特殊化。在2006年研究成果的基础上,应用CVM方法于2010年再次调查上海居民对城市内河生态恢复的支付意愿(WTP),问卷中增加了对居民家庭中工作人口数量、房屋产权情况、是否步行到达河边等因素的调查。采用Logit概率模型分析影响居民支付与否的主要影响因素。结果显示:非高等教育、非沪户籍、老年人、对水体环境不满意、距离河流较远等因素增加了居民不愿意支付的概率。与2006年调查相比较,户籍、教育等因素影响呈现一定稳定性。沿河居住时期、家庭中工作人口数等因素呈现不同影响。最后指出:我国经济转型阶段的社会结构、制度安排等造成CVM支付意愿和真实需求之间的偏离,应用CVM方法及结果时须考虑这一效应。

Comparison Study on WTP for River Environmental Restoration of Urban River in Shanghai:Case Studies in 2006 and 2010

Chinese special influential factors of positive probability of WTP(willingness to pay) are studied on the basis of CVM(Contingent Valuation Method)case study in 2006 and 2010 in Shanghai.Applying probability model of Logit to regress positive probability of WTP with influential factors,the results based on 2010 data indicate that the factors such as non-Shanghai Huji,old people and long distance to river also add points to the probability.Compared with result from 2006,the factor such as Huji status,education level,environmental awareness have same effect to positive WTP.The result proves the expectancy of general economic theories and the nature of ecosystem or environment.It is also in accordance with the social structure,system arrangement and characteristics of economic development pattern in China.