| 人民币汇率贬值影响因素及趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王欣,王剑. 人民币汇率贬值影响因素及趋势分析[J]. 天津市财贸管理干部学院学报, 2014, 0(5): 5-8 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王欣 王剑 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津商务职业学院,天津300350 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津商务职业学院2013年度院级科研项目《现阶段人民币汇率政策的相机抉择》（TCC2013YB07）的阶段性研究成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 自2014年2月开始,从长期的升值至贬值再至双向波动的震荡调整市,人民币汇率进入了新的运行轨道。美国经济复苏退出QE、国内经济增长趋缓、外汇交易者心理预期及央行的主动调控无疑是推动这一转变的基本要素。在目前人民币汇率基本达到均衡水平的现状下,不论是经济环境还是政策环境都不再支持人民币在中期出现强劲的升值和贬值,中期走势呈现小幅度的双向波动将成为大概率事件。
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| 关 键 词： | 人民币贬值 量化宽松货币政策 经济增长 |
The Factors to Influence the Depreciation of RMB Exchange Rate and Its Tendency Analysis |
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| WANG Xin,WANG Jian. The Factors to Influence the Depreciation of RMB Exchange Rate and Its Tendency Analysis[J]. Journal of Tianjin Institute of Financial and Commercial Management, 2014, 0(5): 5-8 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xin WANG Jian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.2.Tianjin College of Commerce, Tianjin 300350) |
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| Abstract: | Since Feb, 2014, the RMB exchange rate has entered into a new track of an unstable market, from long-term appreciation to devaluation and then to volatility. The basic factors to push the change are resulted from the United States quitting the QE, the slow growth for national economy, the expectation of foreign exchange trading dealer and the adjustment and control from the central bank. Inview of RMB exchange rate being in balance carrently, both economic environment and policy environment are no longer support RMB＇s sharp appreciation and depreciation during the medium term. Therefore, the medium trend that presents volatility by a small margin is great probability. |
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| Keywords: | RMB depreciation quantitative easing monetary policy economic growth |
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