| 两种人口预测模型的精确度比较——以人口年龄移算法和灰色预测模型为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 茆长宝,程琳. 两种人口预测模型的精确度比较——以人口年龄移算法和灰色预测模型为例[J]. 南京人口管理干部学院学报, 2009, 25(1): 29-32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 茆长宝 程琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学,人口研究所
2. 四川大学,经济学院,四川,成都,610064 |
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| 摘 要： | 对灰色预测模型、人口年龄移算法在人口预测结果中的精确度问题进行了比较研究.结论是:(1)灰色预测模型的预测精确度优于人口年龄移算法;(2)灰色预测模型残差在小范围内呈波动趋势,而人口年龄移算法残差表现为随预测时间的推移而增加的趋势;(3)灰色预测模型比人口年龄移算法更适合较长时期的人口预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 灰色模型 人口年龄移算 精确度 |
A Comparative Study of Accuracy Between Two Models for Population Projections:Taking GM and Population-shift Algorithm as Examples |
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| MAO Chang-bao,CHEN lin. A Comparative Study of Accuracy Between Two Models for Population Projections:Taking GM and Population-shift Algorithm as Examples[J]. Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management, 2009, 25(1): 29-32 |
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| Authors: | MAO Chang-bao CHEN lin |
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| Abstract: | A comparison was made between two demographic models,gray forecasting model(GM)and the model of population-shift algorithm,to study their accuracy in population projection.The authors have come to three conclusions as follows:Firstly,GM is more accurate than the other one.Secondly,the residual error of GM fluctuates in a small range while the residual error of the other model increases as time goes by.Thirdly,the GM is much more adapted to long-period population projections. |
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| Keywords: | Population Projections GM Population-shift Algorithm Analysis of Accuracy |
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