我国经济周期波动的实证分析

周期波动是经济发展过程中的常见现象。建国以来,我国经济经历了9次周期波动,主要为增长型周期,经济波动程度逐渐由剧烈转向平稳,周期的长度逐渐拉长。经济体制的转变是我国经济增长的波动情况发生改变的主要原因。未来我国经济周期将向中周期过渡,世界经济周期对我国周期的影响将进一步增强。

A Positive Analysis of the Cyclic Fluctuation of China''''s Economy

Cyclic fluctuation is a common phenomenon in the economic development. Since 1949, China's economy has undergone nine fluctuations, mainly characterized by the growing cycles. The economic fluctuation, from a violent state, has gradually calmed down, with an increasingly prolonged cycle. The change of fluctuation in the state of economic growth is mostly attributed to the transition of economic system. In the future, China's economic cycle will shift to the intermediate cycle, and global economic cycle will have greater influence on that of China.