国家战略调整:国防建设为主还是经济建设为主——基于MS-AR模型的实证分析

受Laurent Ferrara(2003)启发, 选用1953-2010年的中国国防费支出占中央财政支出比率的时间序列作为实证数据, 运用MS-AR模型对该时间序列进行了区制转换检验。研究表明:利用MS-AR模型得到的划分时间表和中国实际国情十分吻合, 说明中国国防费支出占中央财政支出比率时间序列的确受到了国家战略这一潜在变量的影响;说明中国的国防政策是防御性的, 中国的国防建设服从于经济建设, 如果不发生严重威胁中国国家主权和安全的情况, 中国就不会大幅度实质性增加国防费;研究进一步证明,最近几年中国国防费的增加是适度合理的, 有力地反击了“中国军事威胁论”。

The Adjustment of National Strategy: Prioritize National Defence Construction or Economic Construction -An Empirical Analysis Based on MS-AR Model

This paper was inspired by Laurent Ferrara(2003), which chose the time series for national defense expense accounts for the central fiscal expenditure ratio during 1953-2010 as the empirical data, and applied MS-AR model to regime switching test. Research results show that: the Classification Schedule obtained by the model agreed with China’ actual case very well, and the time series was indeed influenced by National Strategy; China's national defense policy was defensive, national defense construction was subject to economic construction, and as long as there was no serious threat to national sovereignty and security, defense expenditure would not have substantial increase; the study further proved that the recent increase for defense expenditure was moderate and reasonable, striking back at the “China threat theory ”.