Die systematische Entstehung von versicherungsmathematischen Gewinnen und Verlusten bei der Bewertung von Pensionsverpflichtungen

The accounting for pension obligations is based upon numerous parameters, whose future developments must be forecasted for valuation purposes. If the actual realizations of theses parameters deviate from their original estimations there are generated so-called actuarial gains and losses. IAS 19 provides three alternative accounting treatments with respect to these actuarial gains and losses. In particular the equity and the corridor approach, both frequently used in practice, implicitly assume that the actuarial gains and losses offset each other in the long run. However different studies have demonstrated by using the Monte-Carlo-Simulation-technique that this long-term offset is not assured. But those studies do not propose a rationale for the observed generation of systematic actuarial gains and losses. The present paper provides an analytic rationale for the systematic appearance of actuarial gains and losses and comes to the following conclusion: The long-term offset of actuarial gains and losses is assured only if the parameters that must be estimated for valuation purposes are independent. However if there is an interdependence between those parameters, which seems to be a sound assumption in reality, the offset of actuarial gains and losses is not given. In case of a positive correlation actuarial losses are generated on a systematic basis, whereas a negative correlation results in actuarial gains.