“天安舰事件”后东亚战略形势与中国选择

"天安舰事件"是美国战略重心东移提速的重要信号,美韩黄海军演是美国保守派在向中国摊牌并对奥巴马"新尼克松义"政策施压,这对目前基于远东雅尔塔法权体制的美国国家利益的影响是灾难性的。笔者主张中美在雅尔塔体制中的合作,而不应当寻求"零和"式的冲突。今天美国衰落的原因是美国财政已无力支持其过于庞大的战略目标,该战略目标已使美国对手林立并越打越多。遏制中国已成为美国巨大的政治和财务包袱,美国已没有必要———当然也日益没有能力———坚守遏制中国的"第一链条"。中国实现台海统一只是在恢复半个世纪前已在雅尔塔体制中确定的中国合法权利,并不损害美国的雅尔塔利益。笔者建议,为了美国未来的可持续发展和繁荣,为了保持美国在世界政治中应有的大国地位,美国应当放手台湾于中国,由此赢得亚太在新的政治基础上的和平。中国必须为此做好最坏和最好的准备。

East Asia Strategic Situation and China's Choice Adter the Accident of Sinking of Tian An

This paper maintains that the accident of the Sinking of Tian An is an important sign heralding the moving eastward of US strategic gravity. The US - South - Korean military exercise scheduled to be held in HuangHai is a showdown staged by the US conservatives and is also to exert pressure on Obama＇ s ＂new Nixonism＂. This is disastrous for the US national interests based on the Far East Yaha system of right. The author proposes that China and US cooperate within the Yalta System and should not seek ＂peaceless＂ conflicts. Today, what accounts for the decline of US is that US cannot financially afford the far - fetched and colossal strategic objectives which have antagonized more and more countries. The cumbersome responsibility of containing China has become a heavy burden for US politically and financially. US needn＇ t defend the ＂first Island Chain＂ to contain China. China＇ s realization of the unification across Strait is merely to recover China＇ s legitimate right confirmed in the Yaha system half a century ago, and does not do any harm to US interests inherited from the Yalta Agreement. The author suggests that for US future sustainable development and prosperity and in order to keep US＇ s deserved position as a powerful state in the world politics, US should give up Taiwan to China, so as to win peace for Asia - Pacific on a new political base. China must be prepared for the worst and the best.