基于电信业务推广的扩散模型修正与应用研究

文章旨在将业务扩散模型引入我国电信业,从而预测电信业未来的发展空间。鉴于传统业务扩散模型前提假设与电信业务扩散的实际存在较大的不同,通过对电信业务发展历程的分析,修正了传统的Bass模型 借助固定电话业务发展数据验证了修正模型的有效性 明确了模型参数的经济意义,为我国电信运营商未来业务拓展提供了理论依据。

Study on communications development forecasting based on modified Bass model

This article uses Bass model to forecast communications development in China. There are many differences between the assumptions of the traditional Bass model and reality of telecom business. In this sense, this article modifies the traditional Bass model based on the analysis of the process of communication development in China. The validity of the modified model is proved by the fixed-line business data. At the same time, the economic significance of the model parameters is much clearer. The modified model provides theoretical basis for communications development forecasting.