政府终结--基本经验模式与演绎模式

分析了政府终结的方法———基本经验模式和演绎模式方法。基本经验模式发展成主体,将日益复杂微妙的事件应用于数据统计,并受到学界很大程度的认可。演绎方法发展为不合作博弈,以主要政治角色的反应为标准,譬如,如果政府快要垮台,有关可能的选举结果就会被准确地预测。把这两种传统模式融合为一种综合的研究模式目前还没有转化为现实。

Government Termination--The Fundamental Empirical Approach and the Priori Approach

This article analyzes the approaches to government termination: the fundamental empirical approach and the priori approach.The empirical approach has evolved into a body of work that applies increasingly sophisticated event to a dataset that has become to a large extent common within the profession.The priori approach has developed within the traditions of non-cooperative game theory to model the responses of key actors to new information,for example,about the likely results of an election that might be called if the government were to fall.There is clearly unfulfilled potential to merge these two research traditions into a single more comprehensive account of government termination.