China's population policy: A model of a constant stream of births

The current population policy of China, which emphasizes one child per family, is facing considerable challenge brought about by socioeconomic reforms. The principal challenge is greater individual freedom created by the reforms. The present article examines this conflict.Based on cohort-period fertility analysis, the author proposes a policy of a constand stream of births which ensures a moderate growth rate and a smooth age structure while enabling each couple to have at least two children. Simulation suggests that, in order to achieve the two goals of limiting population size (to about 1.2 billion in 2000 and 1.4 billion in the 2050s) and allowing more individual fertility choice (2.2 children per family), the annual stream of births should be around 20 million and the mean age of childbearing has to increase from 26 to 30 over the next 10–15 years.The author concludes that, if the policy proposed here succeeds, some social and economic problems associated with the conflict between the reforms initiated by the government and its one-child policy will be mitigated.Paper presented at the 1989 meeting of the Population Association of America.