副省级城市综合韧性评价及障碍因子识别

为了提升副省级城市韧性,探索其可持续发展路径。该文以15个副省级城市为研究对象,运用改进的CRITIC-熵权组合赋权法、TOPSIS法、方差分解法、障碍度模型对2011—2020年15个副省级城市综合韧性进行评价,并对其障碍因子进行识别分析。结果显示:15个副省级城市综合韧性在2011—2020年间呈现波动上升的趋势,整体形势较好;各副省级城市综合韧性、分项韧性排名存在明显差异;从方差分解结果来看,宁波、成都、长春、哈尔滨四个城市的经济韧性和生态韧性对综合韧性的贡献度最大,而其余副省级城市则是经济韧性和社会韧性的贡献度最大;从障碍度结果分析,经济系统和社会系统是制约副省级城市韧性提升的主要障碍系统,对于具体指标,每百人公共图书馆藏书(b₃)和一般公共预算收入(a₄)是大部分副省级城市的主要障碍因子。未来,各副省级城市应依据发展情况着力补齐短板,从完善社会应急保障体系、扩大社会文化产业影响力和增加科教领域的投入等方面增强城市韧性,推动副省级城市实力整体提升。

Comprehensive Resilience Assessment of Sub-Provincial Cities and Identification of Barrier Factors

In order to enhance the resilience of sub-provincial cities in China and explore their sustainable development paths, this paper takes 15 sub-provincial cities as research objects and assesses their comprehensive resilience from 2011 to 2020 via the improved CRITIC-entropy weight combination method, TOPSIS method, variance decomposition method and barrier degree model, thus identifying and analyzing their barrier factors. The results show that: there has been a fluctuating upward trend and a relatively good situation in terms of their comprehensive resilience; there exist significant ranking differences in terms of their comprehensive resilience and sub-divided resilience factors; based on the variance decomposition results, the economic and ecological resilience contributes to the comprehensive resilience the most in the cities such as Ningbo, Chengdu, Changchun, and Harbin while the economic and social resilience makes the largest contribution among the remaining sub-provincial cities; based on the analysis of the barrier degree results, the economic system and social system are the main barriers restricting the resilience improvement of sub-provincial cities, specifically, public-library book collections per 100 people (b3) and general public budget revenue (a4) are the main barrier factors for most sub-provincial cities. In the future, sub-provincial cities should focus on making up for their drawbacks according to their development situation, and enhance their resilience by improving their social emergency guarantee systems, expanding the influence of social and cultural industries and increasing investment in the field of science and education. In this sense, the comprehensive power of sub-provincial cities can be enhanced.