农村老年女性贫困的决定因素分析——基于Cox比例风险模型的研究视角

文章使用2009年在山东省沂蒙山区部分县市的调查数据,运用Cox比例风险模型识别影响女性老年人口贫困及持续时间的决定性因素指标,把老年女性的贫困区分为暂时性贫困和持续性贫困,而持续性贫困才是政府重点解决和帮扶的对象;并且通过Cox比例风险模型,找出影响农村老年女性持续性贫困的决定性因素。文章认为解决农村老年女性贫困的最优方案不是设计一个新的制度,而是对目前的针对农村居民的社会保障项目加以整合,然后重点对该部分群体加以倾斜和覆盖。

Determinant Factors of China's Rural Old Age Impoverished Female:A application of Cox proportion risk model

Based on 2009 data collected in Yimeng mountainous regions,Shandong province,this paper analyzes factors affecting old women's povertyand its duration. Temporarypoverty and persisting poverty are distinguished,and the latter should be governments'main target for poverty reduction. By using Cox proportion risk model,the author found the determining factors which affect persisting poverty of rural old women. The author argues that to integrate social security schemes for rural citizens and give priority to th...