Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis |
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Authors: | Jun Yang Wei Zhang Simla Tokgoz |
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Affiliation: | 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;2. Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA;3. University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China |
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Abstract: | This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S. |
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Keywords: | F13 O24 |
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