| 风险条件下基于实物期权的研发项目多阶段评价模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 谷晓燕,何锋,蔡晨.风险条件下基于实物期权的研发项目多阶段评价模型[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(4):68-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谷晓燕 何锋 蔡晨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100191;
2. 北京航空航天大学电子信息工程学院, 北京 100191;
3. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(90718042) |
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| 摘 要： | 研发项目投资决策是现代企业研发管理的核心内容,对研发项目进行合理、准确的评估,具有高度的战略意义和现实意义.本文基于实物期权理论,考虑到研发项目投资的灵活性,结合研发项目的阶段性特征,综合分析了研发项目寿命期内面临的市场风险、技术风险和突发风险对研发项目潜在现金流的影响,构建了风险条件下研发项目多阶段评价模型.最后通过算例对模型进行验证、横向对比和敏感性分析,证实了模型的正确合理性.
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| 关 键 词： | 研发项目 实物期权 风险 阶段 评价模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-11-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-6-13 |
R&D Project Multi-Stage Evaluation Model Based on Real Option Under the Circumstance of Risks |
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| GU Xiao-yan,HE Feng,CAI Chen.R&D Project Multi-Stage Evaluation Model Based on Real Option Under the Circumstance of Risks[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2011,19(4):68-75. |
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| Authors: | GU Xiao-yan HE Feng CAI Chen |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;
2. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;
3. Institute of Policy & Management, Chinese A cademy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | R&D project investment decision is the key of R&D management in modern enterprises,and the reasonable and correct R&D project evaluation has great strategic and practical significance.In this paper,on the real option perspective,taking into account the flexibility of R&D project investment,combining the character of stages of R&D project,analyzing comprehensively market risk,technology risk and emergency risk during the lifetime,the multi-stage R&D project evaluation model is established under the circumsta... |
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| Keywords: | R&D project real option risk stage evaluation model |
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