中国内陆港建设对亚欧通道运输服务贸易脆弱性影响研究

为研究“一带一路”倡议下中国内陆港建设对亚欧通道沿线不同经济发展水平国家“交通-经贸”的影响,推动沿线地区经济协同发展,选取亚欧通道沿线24个经济体的2010—2019年相关经济数据,基于拓展的贸易引力模型对影响沿线国家进出口贸易因素进行实证分析,并将研究样本按照发达国家和发展中国家进行分组回归,探讨中国内陆港建设对不同样本组的影响; 通过测算沿线国家显示性比较优势指数,分析各国运输服务贸易国际竞争力水平,并概括其脆弱性影响因素。研究认为,中国内陆港建设对亚欧通道沿线国家进出口贸易的影响显著为正,且分组回归结果有所不同,对发展中国家的影响系数显著大于发达国家; 亚欧通道沿线国家的显性竞争优势指数整体较高,运输业直接投资和物流基础设施建设成为影响各国运输服务贸易脆弱性的重要因素。研究还认为,中国内陆港建设与亚欧通道沿线国家间的进出口贸易呈现协同发展趋势,大多数亚欧通道沿线国家的运输服务贸易均呈现出较强的竞争力,中国内陆港建设对亚欧通道沿线发展中国家的进出口贸易影响程度大于发达国家。研究表明,需要发挥物流枢纽的规模经济效应,构建“海-陆”联动机制,创新“交通-经贸”发展模式,以“国家物流枢纽”建设为契机,以内陆港和自贸区建设为依托,推进内陆地区“物流、经贸、产业”深度融合,是培育中国国际竞争新优势的有效路径。

Study on the impact of China's inland port construction on the vulnerability of transport service trade in the Eurasian Corridor

In order to study the impact of China's inland port construction on the “transport-economy and trade” of countries with different economic development levels along the Eurasian Corridor under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and promote the coordinated economic development of regions along the Corridor, relevant economic data of 24 economies along the Eurasian Corridor from 2010 to 2019 were selected. Based on the expanded trade gravity model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the import and export trade of the countries along the Belt and Road, and makes a grouped regression of the research samples according to the classification of developed countries and developing countries, and discusses the influence of China's inland port construction on different groups. By measuring the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index of countries along the Corridor, the international competitiveness level of transport service trade of countries is analyzed, and the influencing factors of vulnerability are summarized. The research shows that the impact of China's inland port construction on the import and export trade of countries along the Eurasian Corridor is significantly positive, and the grouped regression results are different, and the influence coefficient of developing countries is significantly greater than that of developed countries. The Revealed Comparative Advantage Index of countries along the Eurasian Corridor is generally higher, and the direct investment in transport industry and the construction of logistics infrastructure are important factors affecting the vulnerability of transport service trade of countries. The results show that: China's inland port construction and import and export trade between countries along the Eurasian Corridor presents the trend of coordinated development; the transport service trade of most of the countries along the Eurasian Corridor are showing strong competitiveness; the influence of China's inland port construction on the import and export trade of the developing countries along the Eurasian Corridor is greater than that on the developed countries. Therefore, we need to give full play to the effect of economies of scale of logistics hub, construct the “sea-land” linkage mechanism, optimize the “transport-economy and trade” development model in an innovative way, and promote the in-depth integration of “logistics, economy and trade and industry” in the inland region using the construction of “national logistics hub” as an opportunity based on the inland port and free trade area construction. That is an effective path of cultivating the new international competitive advantage of China.