世界经济增长的长期停滞:问题、成因与对策

全球次贷金融危机和全球新冠肺炎疫情冲击以来,世界经济增长陷入停滞的困境,通过宏观历史数据分析,发现这种长期停滞主要表现为7项特征事实:全球经济增速长期低迷、贸易增速总体下降、FDI较为低迷且结构分化不断加剧、发达国家面临通缩压力而发展中国家面临通胀压力、失业压力持续高悬、粮食危机频发、全要素生产率增长放缓。研究认为,形成这种长期停滞的成因主要包括政府债务不断增长、世界人口老龄化加剧、人力资本水平提升放缓、技术进步的推动力不断下降、新旧能源替代的产业冲击、世界产业结构迁移升级愈加缓慢、民粹主义和保护主义的加剧、世界各国财富分配不平等普遍扩大、单一美元主导的全球货币体系结构性矛盾、地缘政治风险频发等方面的结构性问题。研究还认为,在解决所有约束之中,形成更加负责任的国际经济与产业合作治理体系,开展更为强劲的技术合作创新,积极改善收入和财富分配不平等,重视加强国际金融治理合作等,是世界经济增长突破长期停滞困境的关键问题,也是进一步带动其他长期内生动能不断增强的重要因素。

Long-term stagnation of world economic growth:problems,causes and solutions

Since the breakout of the subprime financial crisis in 2008 and the recent impact of the global pandemic COVID-19, the world economic growth has been stagnant for quite a long time. Based on macro historical data analysis, it has been found that this long-term stagnation has seven characteristics: sustained sluggish economic growth speed, overall declining trend in trade growth, relatively low FDI and the intensifying structural differentiation of FDI, deflationary pressures for developed countries and inflationary pressures for developing countries, constant high unemployment rate, frequent food crisis, and slowed total factor productivity growth rate. This research suggests that the main causes of this long-term stagnation mainly include ten structural issues: the continuous growth of government debt, the aggravation of the aging of the overall world population, the slowdown of the improvement of human capital level, the continuous decline in the driving force of technological progress, the industrial impact of replacing old energy with new energy, the increasingly slow migration and upgrading of the world industrial structure, the intensification of populism and protectionism, the widening inequality in wealth distribution all over the world, structural conflicts in the global monetary system that is dominated by the single dollar, and frequent geopolitical risks. In dealing with all these constraints, forming a more responsible international economic and industrial cooperative governance, carrying out closer technological cooperation and innovation, actively reducing the inequality in income and wealth distribution, and paying more attention to strengthening international financial governance cooperation are the four key issues that need to be addressed promptly for the world economic growth to break out of the stagnation. They are also important factors that further promote the continuous strengthening of other long-term endogenous drivers.