亚洲货币合作:理论与可行性研究

在总结区域货币合作基本理论的基础上,对亚洲货币合作可行性的研究表明:亚洲地区仅在某些方面符合构建最优货币区的基本条件,而在一些重要方面尚存有欠缺。此外,并非所有国家之间进行货币合作都具备条件。因此,亚洲尚不具备建立一个真正意义上、有制度保障、以汇率目标区为主体的货币合作机制的条件。现实的选择是,小型开放经济体可以根据各自的不同情况,选择最优合作伙伴,逐步推进次区域货币合作。

Study on the Theory and Possibility of Asian Monetary Cooperation

Traditional theory of monetary cooperation can be traced back to the theory of Optimum Currency Area pioneered by Robert Mundell and consists of "the theory of Optimum Currency Area","the theory of One Market One Money","the theory of 'GG-LL'" and "the theory of some positive methods".According to all these theories,the demand for regional monetary cooperation is based on economic conditions including the level of economic interdependence,regional trade and capital flow,economic openness,factor mobility and the level of economic development.The degree of the integration of East Asian nations becomes higher and higher,as is mainly represented by the big amount of trade and capital flow,the high level of economic openness.When considering the factor mobility,the interdependence of financial market,the level of economic development,the economic structure and the likelihood of economic policy,we could find that there is still a long way to regional monetary cooperation in East Asia and such a conclusion is also supported by the OCAI test of East Asia.However,it is possible to establish some sub-regional monetary cooperation firstly.Furthermore,East Asia would be able to establish a Monetary Union like the EMU after a long-term hard working.