Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility |
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Authors: | Luis Angeles |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, University of Houston and NBER, Houston, TX 77204, USA |
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Abstract: | The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in
order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of
developed and developing countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account
the dynamic nature of the relationship, and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show
that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about
10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the
demographic transition based on changes in GDP per capita. |
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