Scenario building: an integral methodology for learning,decision-making,and human resource development

Recognizing and managing the complexities of strategic change is a difficult endeavor for organizational leaders, and is one that is increasingly necessary for organizations that exist in uncertain and rapidly changing environments. Organizations, and the individuals within them, must develop expertise and tools to operate effectively in these conditions. Scenario building has gained attention as a methodology that enriches traditional strategic planning methods by helping organizational leaders recognize and better prepare for the critical uncertainties and complexities of forces driving future change. Scenario building is explored in this article to provide HRD professionals with a solid exposure to the art of scenario building. The process is defined and explained, its history briefly explored, and key benefits as a learning and decision-making tool as well as for the field of human resource development are discussed.