| 中国石油脆弱性的测算及其情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王宝,李泓泽. 中国石油脆弱性的测算及其情景分析[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 0(1): 10-13 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王宝 李泓泽 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京,102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 选取构建了影响中国石油脆弱性的7个主要指标,运用主成分分析方法,对1998—2008年中国石油脆弱性进行了综合测算。结果表明：近年来中国石油脆弱性总体不断加深。在得出各指标对中国石油脆弱性的敏感性系数后,基于情景分析,模拟了2009—2015年中国石油脆弱性。为能源安全政策制定者提供了一定的参考和依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油脆弱性 主成分分析 情景分析 |
Measurement and Scenario Analysis of China's Oil Vulnerability |
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| WANG Bao,LI Hong-ze. Measurement and Scenario Analysis of China's Oil Vulnerability[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences), 2011, 0(1): 10-13 |
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| Authors: | WANG Bao LI Hong-ze |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | Seven major indicators that affect China’s oil vulnerability are selected or constructed and China’s oil vulnerability over the period 1998—2008 is comprehensively measured through the adoption of principal component analysis.Results demonstrate that China’s oil vulnerability has generally been increased in recent years.After the sensitivity coefficient of each indicator to China’s oil vulnerability is obtained,China’s oil vulnerability for the duration of 2009—2015 is simulated on the basis of scenario analysis.Some references and bases are provided for energy policy-makers. |
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| Keywords: | oil vulnerability principal component analysis scenario analysis |
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