中国的家庭结构转变--来自居住方式与人口因素的作用

基于历次人口普查数据,利用SOCSIM微观模拟方法将家庭转变的关键影响因素分解为人口因素和居住方式因素两个方面,并进一步将人口因素分解为人口惯性、生育率、死亡率和结婚率四个层面进行计量分析.结果发现,当前人口变动相对稳定,较小的波动使其在家庭转变中的贡献率相对较小,而居住方式的影响相对较大;对人口因素的进一步分解还发现,人口惯性及生育率水平的作用相对更大,生育率水平、结婚率水平带来的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是一致的,均提高了一人户、一代户、二代户的人口比重,降低了三代及以上户的人口比重.与之相反,死亡率的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是相反的.

Changes in Family Structure in China: Impact of Residence Pattern and Demographic Factors

Based on previous census data in mainland China, this paper uses SOCSIM microscopic simulation method to decompose the key factors of family transition into demographic and residence pattern factors, and the former are further broken down into demographic inertia, fertility, mortality and marriage rate.The results indicate that the current demographic changes are relatively stable and accordingly the small fluctuations of demographic changes contribute much less than residence pattern to the family transition.Demographic inertia and fertility have a greater effect on family transition within demographic factors and the impacts caused by fertility and marriage rate are consistent with the direction of the overall influence of demographic factors: increasing the proportion of one-person household, one-generation household, two-generation household and decreasing the proportion of three-or-more-generation households.In contrast, the direction of the impact of mortality is reversed.