高等教育结构与产业结构、就业结构的关系

基于经济增长的内生化视角,围绕高等教育结构、就业结构、产业结构三者的辩证关系,基于MRW模型验证"三结构"之间逻辑关系,并运用面板数据回归和门限值回归的方法,检验"三结构"之间实际相互关系.研究发现,在经济增长的不同阶段三者表现出不同的传导关系,即在经济增长的低级阶段,以产业结构调整的"拉动"为主,到经济增长的高级阶段以高等教育结构调整的"推动"为主.高等教育结构对产业结构和就业结构影响的实证结果表明,高等教育结构对于第一产业结构和就业结构比例的下降有促进作用,与第二产业和第三产业结构的调整呈弱负相关.如果高等教育结构充分发挥对以第三产业为主导的产业结构的作用,则高等教育需要从大众化向普及化阶段过渡.对传导机制的测算结果显示,2001-2013年产业结构到高等教育结构的传导时滞为8年,从高等教育结构到产业结构的时滞为6年.

The Relationship of Higher Education Structure,Industry Structure and Employment Structure

From the standpoint of endogenous economic growth, this paper explored the relationship among higher education structure, employment structure and industrial structure. Using the panel data regression and threshold regression method, we test the actual relationship among "the three structures" The relationship changed in different economic growth period: in the lower phase of economic growth, industrial structure adjustment is the most important one, while, the higher education structure is the most important one in the higher stage of economic growth. The empirical analysis on the effect of higher education structure on the industrial structure and employment structure show: the higher education structure promote the decline of industrial structure and employment structure in the agriculture sector, but it has weak negative association with the second industry and the tertiary industry structure. The effect of the higher education on the tertiary industry will more obvious if it transfer from popularization to universalness so as to give full play. From 2001 to 2013, the transmission mechanism shows that there is an 8-years time lag between the industrial structure and the higher education structure, and a 6-years time lag between the higher education structure to the industrial structure.