中国老年人口的养老意愿及其城乡差异——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的分析

老年人的养老意愿是建立养老服务体系必须考虑的重要方面.文章根据中国人民大学2014年"中国老年社会追踪调查"数据,分析我国老年人的养老意愿及其影响因素.采用多分类Logit回归模型比较城市和农村老年人的居住意愿.分析发现城市老年人的居住意愿受个体、家庭、社区三类因素的共同影响,呈现多元化特点,而对农村老年人居住意愿有显著影响的因素则基本集中于家庭因素.结果表明城市老年人更趋向于独立居住或入住养老机构,而农村老年人对社会养老服务的需求更取决于家庭成员的态度和支持程度.

The Intention for the Old-age Support of the Chinese Elderly and Its Differences between Urban and Rural Elderly: A Study Based on the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey

The intention for old-age support of the Chinese elderly is an important aspect for developing the social service system for older people.Based on the "China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey" by Renmin University of China in 2014, this paper analyzes the intention for old-age support and its influencing factors, and compares the living intention between urban and rural elderly by multinomial logit model.The results show that the living intentions of the urban elderly are influenced by the individual, family and community factors, and show a diversified characteristic.However, the living intention of the rural elderly are only significantly associated with the family factors.The results indicate that urban elderly tend to live independently or in institutions, while the demands for social care services by rural elderly are more likely to be affected by the attitudes and supports of family members.