我国加工贸易发展动因的实证研究

基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数建立理论模型,运用1983-2005年加工贸易时间序列数据计量分析表明,丰富、廉价的劳动力资源是产生我国加工贸易比较优势的主要原因,但劳动力比较优势正在逐渐削弱;中间产品进口是加工贸易出口快速增长的直接原因;成本导向型的外商直接投资具有贸易创造效应,是推动我国加工贸易迅速发展的重要力量;"干中学"效应引起的动态比较优势已成为我国加工贸易发展新的动力。根据实证分析结论,提出了调整我国加工贸易政策的建议。

Empirical Study of Causes of China's Processing Trade Development

Based on Cobb-Douglas’ production function, this paper establishes its theoretical model. The employment of the data of 1983-2005 processing trade time sequence shows that rich and cheap labor force is the major reason for China’s relatively advantaged processing trade. However, the relatively advantaged labor force is gradually lessening. Intermediate products importation is the immediate reason for the fast growth of processing trade exportation. The immediate investment of the cost driven foreigners produces the effect of trade creation, which is a considerable force that contributes to the fast development of China's processing trade. On the basis of the conclusions of the empirical study, the paper puts forward some suggestions for adjustment of the strategies of China's processing trade.