| Abstract: | When energy-GDP relationship is analyzed on a global scale for any one-time period the correlations derived are always very high. Yet these results are deceiving-and of lattle practical value-because of regional and income differences and the dynamic and highly individual behavior of the various countries. Consequently, the only meaningful approach is to analyze energy-GDP patterns over a long time on an individual country basis and to do so by defining GDP in terms of national currency.Correlations obtained by the latter method are uniformly and extremely high enabling a planner who can forecast the GDP levels of a country with some confidence to derive energy consumption from an appropriate regression equation with almost a pinpoint precision.Needless to say that these results, reflecting the developmentsduring a highly stable period of economic growth and low-and fairly stable-energy prices, should be applied with caution, especially as far as long-range projections are concerned. Each country's energy-GDP pattern is determined predominantly by climate, orientation of the economy, efficiency of industrial and household conversions and the share of non-productive energy uses. |
