中亚五国二氧化碳排放变化特征及其影响因素

强调走低碳经济是目前中亚五国乃至全世界所面临的气候变化背景下不可动摇的战略选择。分析中亚五国1993—2009年CO2总排放量、人均CO2排放以及CO2排放强度变化特征，利用Kaya模型定量分析各种影响因素的相对重要性，结果表明：（1）中亚五国的CO2排放情况存在较大的差异。哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦CO2排放水平已远高于世界的平均水平，其中哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦CO2排放量有继续上升的趋势，乌兹别克斯坦已经控制在某一个稳定的水平。（2）经济发展和人口增长是导致中亚五国CO2排放的主要因子，能源结构的调整也在一定程度上对CO2排放带来了压力，而能源强度对减缓CO2排放的贡献是极大的。

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Central Asia Carbon Dioxide Emissions

According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, global warming has caused a serious threatto the environmental, ecological, social and economic systems of the five Central Asian countries. The riseof CO2 emission and other greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere caused by human and socio-economic activities are main factors that induced global warming. Five Central Asian countries are at thestage of industrialization and urbanization, it is therefore an unshakeable strategic choice to learn the lessonsthat developed countries have gotten during the industrialization period and to stress on going low-carboneconomies. Analyzing the five Central Asian counties＇ total CO2 emission, per capita CO2 emission andCO2 emission intensity from 1993 to 2009, this paper showed： ①a big difference exists between them inCO2 emission. The level of CO2 emission of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan is far beyond theworld average, the CO2 emission of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan continues to rise while Uzbekistan hascontrolled the situation and kept a stable level. ②the economic development and population growth arethe main factors leading to CO2 emission in these countries. The adjustment of energy structure has alsobrought about the pressure on CO2 emission to some extent, while the energy intensity has great mitigationeffect on CO2 emission.