| 延迟决策对一类产出系统演化的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李煜,盛昭瀚,陈国华.延迟决策对一类产出系统演化的影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2004,12(2):118-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李煜 盛昭瀚 陈国华 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学工程管理学院 南京 210093 |
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| 摘 要： | 企业作为有限理性的经济主体,在做下阶段的生产决策时可能不仅考虑本期而是要综合考虑以往连续多期的边际利润情况。研究表明,加入时滞以后,系统纳什平衡点的稳定域明显扩大,从而为在混沌经济系统中实现倍周期分岔控制提供了现实途径,同时,还会使系统在纳什平衡点出现hopf分岔等新的动力学演化行为。而且,以累积利润为指标的系统表现可以得到改善。首先引入延迟决策的企业将获得更大的相对竞争优势。而在两家企业都引入延迟决策的情况下,伴随第二家企业产量调整速度的增加,它们将交替获得竞争优势。
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| 关 键 词： | 生产决策 混沌 倍周期分岔 Hoft分岔 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-207(2004)02-0118-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-06-05; |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月5日 |
The Influence of the Delayed Decision on the Dynamical Evolution of a Production System |
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| LI Yu,SHENG Zhao-han,CHEN Guo-hua.The Influence of the Delayed Decision on the Dynamical Evolution of a Production System[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2004,12(2):118-123. |
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| Authors: | LI Yu SHENG Zhao-han CHEN Guo-hua |
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| Institution: | School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
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| Abstract: | firms are bounded rationally in the market.So they make production decisions not only based on the marginal profit of current period but on the marginal profits of many continuous periods.The paper studies the influence of the delay on the system and finds that the stable region of Nash equilibrium is enlarged,which offers a realistic way to realize the control of the period doubling bifurcations.Meanwhile,when two parameters,adjusting speed and weighted factor,satisfy certain conditions,other complicated dynamical behaviors such as Hopf bifurcation will occur at the Nash equilibrium.Delayed decision rule can improve the system performance and has great influence on the market competition. |
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| Keywords: | production decision chaos period doubling bifurcation Hopf bifurcation |
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