财政农业支出与农民收入增长关系研究

我国财政农业支出包括支农支出、农业基本建设支出、农业科技三项费用、农村救济费和其他支出．利用1978～2010年的财政支农数据，分析了我国财政支农的现状并在建立结构式向量自回归模型的基础上，运用广义脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解考察我国财政支农支出的各类支出与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明：各项财政农业支出在促进农民收入增长中的贡献度和影响力有着显著差异，并且存在着一定的作用时滞；中国财政各项农业支出中支农支出在财政农业总支出中的平均比重为66．7％，而其对农村居民家庭人均纯收入方差贡献率却仅为12．3％，中国财政各项农业支出中农业科技三项费用在财政农业总支出中的平均比重虽然仅为0．9％，但其对农村居民家庭人均纯收入方差贡献率却达到了20．6％。最后提出建议：政府应特别加强对中国财政农业支出中支农支出部分的资金监管力度，进一步完善相关机制进而提升对这部分支农资金的使用效率；另外，在中国财政农业支出总额一定的情况下，政府应尽快对我国财政的农业支出结构进行调整，适当减小财政农业支出中支农支出的投入比例，增大农业科技三项费用的投入比例。

Relation Between Different Kinds of Fiscal Agriculture Expenditure and the Increase of Peasants＇ Income Based on SVAR Analysis

On the basis of data about financial support for agriculture from 1978 to 2010, this article analyses the present situation of financial support for agriculture. Based on SVAR model, it also analyses dynamic correla- tion between fiscal agriculture expenditure and the increase of peasants＇ income, with the methods of generalized impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The study shows that different constituent parts of fiscal agriculture expenditure have significant differences in contribution degree and influence degree in promoting the famers＂ income, and sometimes there even exists time-lag action. For example, the average proportion of expendi- ture for supporting agricultural production is 66.7%, but its contribution degree on promoting famers＇ income is only 12.3%; the average proportion of expenditures for trial manufacture of new products, related experimenta- tion, and subsidies for key scientific research projects is 0. 9%, but its contribution degree reaches 20. 6%. At last, it suggests that the government should strengthen supervision on the expenditure for supporting agricultural production and perfect correlative mechanism to promote its capital usage efficiently. Moreover, the government should adjust the structure of fiscal agriculture expenditure as soon as possible, by decreasing the expenditure for supporting agricultural production and increasing that for trial manufacture of new products, related experimenta- tion, and subsidies for key scientific research projects.