农业补贴与城乡消费差距:一个政策模拟分析

基于我国城乡居民消费差距不断扩大的事实，运用持久收入假说理论测算了农村居民持久性收入和暂时性收入，并在此基础上，将持久性收入与农村居民消费总额进行回归分析以衡量其对农村居民消费的边际效应，并取其增加量的负值为消费者补贴等值对农村居民进行直接补贴，以此模拟农业补贴对缩小城乡消费差距的实际效用。研究表明，农业补贴不仅能够显著性影响农村居民的消费结构，加速农村居民从生存型消费向发展型消费的过渡，而且能够有效提高农村居民消费水平，对缩小城乡消费差距发挥重要作用。同时，模拟分析表明，现阶段我国已经具备农业补贴转向的经济环境，并且无论是国内生产总值还是农业生产总值都能够满足农业补贴对财政支出的要求，然而事实上，我国财政支农比重不仅明显偏低，而且提升速度缓慢，财政支农政策与其实际执行力度严重偏颇。

Agricultural Subsidies and Urban rural Consumption Gap: A Policy Simulation Analysis

Based on the expanding gap between urban and rural residents＇ consumption, this paper estimated rural residents＇ persistent income and temporary income by using the permanent income hypothesis theory, and re- gressed persistent income with the total consumption of rural residents, aiming to measure marginal effect of ruralresidents＇ persistent income to consumption and to consider the part of the increase as consumer subsidy equiva- lents for rural residents~ direct subsidy, and then simulated the effect of agricultural subsidies to urban-rural con- sumption gap. The results of the study show that agricultural subsidies not only can significantly impact the con- sumption structure of rural residents and accelerate the transition of rural residents from the survival of consump- tion to the development of consumer, but also can effectively improve the level of consumption of rural residents, playing an important role in narrowing the urban-rural consumption gap. Meanwhile, the simulation analysis shows that China at this stage is able to steer the economic environment of the agricultural subsidies, at the same time, whether GDP or agricultural GDP all can meet the demand of the fiscal expenditure of agricultural subsidies, but in fact, the proportion of spending on agriculture in China not only is obviously low, but also the speed of its improvement is slow. And the financial support for agriculture policy and its enforcement is seriously biased.