中国国际收支经常账户与资本金融账户关系研究：1981-2007

 本文针对中国国际收支多年来“双顺差”的事实，利用1981～2007年度中国国际收支时序数据和我们认为与之相关的最重要的两个宏观经济变量：中国的对外开放度指标和实际GDP的增长率数据，构建了多组向量自回归（VAR）模型，通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法，实证检验了中国国际收支经常账户及其子账户与资本金融账户之间，各账户与宏观经济变量之间的因果关系、动态冲击响应和变量间影响的相对重要性。

A Study on The Relationships of Current Accounts and Capital & Financial Accounts of BOP in China:1981-2007

Aiming at reality of double-surplus of BOP in china for many years, this paper establishes several groups of VAR models using time series data of BOP and two relevant important macroeconomic variables: OPEN index and real GDP growth rate of China from 1981 to 2006. Under VAR model frame, we employ Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition to examine the causality relations, the impulse responses and relative importance of random disturbances between CA and KA, as well as all kinds of accounts and macroeconomic variables.