人口老龄化与延迟退休关系的定量研究

文章基于个人养老金财富的视角,根据中国现行养老保险制度,构建延迟退休的养老金财富损益模型,定量考察人口老龄化对养老金财富的影响,从而判断其对延迟退休的激励效应。测算结果：人口老龄化对延迟退休具有正激励效应,但激励程度取决于参数组合水平。在可能的参数组合下,养老金财富都存在上升的区间;随着预期寿命的延长,同一退休年龄对应的养老金财富更多,且养老金财富达到最大时的退休年龄相应更高;当预期寿命一定时,延迟退休的最高年龄具有一定稳定性和可预见性,且男女最高退休年龄的一致性更具显著性;女性延长退休年限的空间大于男性,延长相同年限时,女性利益增进程度高于男性。在此基础上,提出相应的政策建议。

Quantifying Study on the Relationship between Population Aging and Postpone Retirement

In this paper,based on to pension wealth and China pension insurance system,Build benefit-loss model of pension wealth,Quantifying analysis on effects of population aging on pension wealth,and determine its incentive effects of postpone retirement. Calculation results： incentive effect of population aging on postpone retirement is positive,but the level of excitation depends on the parameter combinations. Under possible parameter combinations,the presence of rising pension wealth range; with the increase of life expectancy,pension wealth of the same retirement age is greater,the retirement age is greater when pension wealth reaches the maximum; when life expectancy is predictable,the longest delay retirement age has a certain stability and predictability,and the maximum retirement age for men and women is significantly consistency; extension space of retirement age for women is longer than men,to extend the same time,women will get more benefit than men. On the basis,recommend the corresponding policies.