首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

21世纪中国人口发展前景
引用本文:刘金塘,林富德. 21世纪中国人口发展前景[J]. 人口学刊, 2001, 0(3): 14-18
作者姓名:刘金塘  林富德
作者单位:中国人民大学人口所,北京,100872
摘    要:20世纪90年代以来,中国的总和生育率已降至更替水平以下,并呈递减态势。我们以目前政策允许的生育水平为低方案,设计了低、中、高三个生育率方案来观照21世纪中国的人口前景,结果发现,虽然三种方案下我国的人口形势都不容乐观,但可以肯定的是,1.8的总和生育率较为适当,女性人口普遍生育二胎的提法是不可取的。

关 键 词:21世纪  中国  人口
文章编号:1004-129X(2001)03-0014-05
修稿时间:2001-02-21

China's population devlopment prospect in 21~(st) century
LIU Jin-tang,LIN Fude. China's population devlopment prospect in 21~(st) century[J]. Population Journal, 2001, 0(3): 14-18
Authors:LIU Jin-tang  LIN Fude
Abstract:Since the 1990s, total fertility rate of China has dropped to under the replace standard and decreased progressively. Regarding the fertility as the low scheme that is allowed by the present policy, we designed three birth rate schemes-low, medium and high to take population prospect of China into consideration in the 2lst century. The result shows that population situations in our country are not optimist under three kinds of schemes. But it is affinmed that the total fertility rate of 1.8 is comparatively proper, and the formulation that women give birth to two children is inadvisable.
Keywords:st century   China   population
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号