产业疏解背景下北京市人口保有规模测算

根据《北京城市总体规划(2016—2035年)》,2020年北京常住人口规模应控制在2300万以内,以后长期稳定在这一水平。然而从目前的人口变化趋势来看,北京市人口规模很有可能会出现持续减少,保持稳定面临挑战。如何在保证疏解非首都功能的情况下维持城市应有活力和可持续发展,将成为亟待关注的问题。利用城市经济学理论与方法,通过对北京市城市基础部门和非基础部门的辨识及确定各部门间就业人口的合理比例关系,测算出北京市疏解非首都功能后所必须保留的最低人口规模即人口保有规模为1800万;北京市疏解非首都功能后的总就业人口规模约940万。由此得出的结论,希冀为北京市制定未来的人口政策提供理论支持和参考建议。

The Calculation of Population Size in Beijing Based on the Background of Industrial Deregulation

According to the Beijing urban master plan(2016-2035),the permanent population scale of Beijing will be controlled within 23 million in 2020,and it will be stable at this level for a long time.However,from the perspective of current population changes,it is likely that there will be a sustained reduction,and maintaining stability will face challenges.How to maintain the vitality and sustainable development of the city under the condition of ensuring the non-capital function will become an urgent problem to be concerned.Based on the theory and method of urban economics,this paper calculates the minimum population size that must be retained after Beijing releases the non-capital function,the population retention scale about 18 million and the total employment population size after Beijing releases the non-capital function about 9.39 million,by identifying the basic and non-basic sectors of Beijing and their proportional relationship.The conclusion is expected to provide theoretical support and reference suggestions for Beijing to formulate population policy in the future.