Sanctions Peers,and Deviance: Preliminary Models Of A Social Control Process*

Research on sanction threat-behavior relationships has suffered because investigators, using cross-sectional data, have failed to meet methodological requirements concerning the causal order of variables and the statistical control of other relevant variables. We estimate several models of a social-control process that meet these requirements, using longitudinal panel data from a sample of 265 adolescents. Our models consider the relationships among an inhibitor (threat of sanction), a generator (peer-group influence), and a measure of deviance (use of marijuana). The results obtained from the best-fitting model indicate that sanction threat does not exert any long-term effects (at least of one year), although there was evidence that it has modest instantaneous effects on deviance. Having marijuana-using friends has the greatest effect on marijuana use. The pattern of coefficients suggests that peers may initially be selected because of their deviant conduct, and that once chosen, they exert independent generative (or causative) influence on deviance.