电子商务环境下基于合作预测的库存补充策略

随着企业电子商务的实现,通过EDI和Intemet可获得大量实时可用的信息,这一切正改变企业处理事务的方式,使得企业之间的进一步合作成为可能.本文主要通过分析供应链管理中需求的预测问题,建立了一定奈件下的合作预测过程模型和基于合作预测的库存补充策略模型,并通过仿真对其性能进行了对比分析.     

一类制造商与零售商纵向集成供应链的最优生产与库存策略

对供应链内部库存系统进行优化控制是提高供应链协调性的一种重要手段.而竞争的不断激化加剧了需求的波动,此时作为消化需求波动缓冲库的库存系统对提高供应链的协调性起着重要的作用.本文综合考虑顾客退货、库存自然损失等随机因素对供应链生产和库存策略的影响,构造出一类制造商与零售商纵向集成的供应链的最优生产与库存模型,并借助于动态规划的最优性原理给出了最优生产库存策略的表达式.本文从协调生产与销售的角度探索了提高供应链协调性的方法,不仅对供应链协调性的理论研究而且对实际应用中如何供应链协调性都作了一个崭新的尝试.     

多分销中心供应链模型及其牛鞭效应的H∞控制

本文在文^[1]具有一个分销中心供应链模型的基础上,建立了具有多个分销中心的供应链结构模型,采用供应链上游库存与订货偏差波动之和与下游顾客需求偏差波动之比描述牛鞭效应。提出顾客末端需求波动最差条件下H_∞控制方法,以抑制牛鞭效应。这一方法本质就是供应链末端需求波动最差情况下,制定供应链管理的最优决策。并且以一个石油分销系统为对象进行了供应链牛鞭效应的H_∞控制仿真实验。     

船公司“利他偏好”与航运供应链上的纵向合作

在大幅波动的世界航运市场上，营销投入和需求波动是航运供应链上船公司与船代公司共同面对的双重成本压力。从而也给船公司以保证市场份额和竞争力为目的，而对船代公司采取“利他”行为提供了可能环境。本文构建了船公司与船代公司组成的风险厌恶型航运供应链，运用Stackelberg博弈模型，分析船公司的“利他偏好”行为对航运市场各方决策行为以及航运供应链纵向合作的影响。研究发现：（1）船公司的“利他偏好”会激励船代公司加大营销投入、拓展市场需求，从而提高航运供应链整体收益和竞争力；（2）虽然效果不及“纵向联盟”，但船公司的“利他偏好”可以加强航运供应链的纵向合作；（3）收益共享成本共担契约可以实现风险厌恶型航运供应链的契约协调，提高航运供应链整体利润和稳定性；（4）船公司的“利他偏好”可以提高收益共享成本共担契约决策的柔性，更有利于强化航运供应链上纵向合作的稳定性。     

非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业牛鞭效应的存在性分析

本文从供应链管理的角度出发,将牛鞭效应的概念和模型引入虚拟企业的运营过程中,运用可变系数的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型对虚拟企业上下游成员企业需求信息进行预测,研究非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业内上下游企业订货水平的差异,证明了虚拟企业运营中牛鞭效应的存在性,最后提出除虚拟企业的敏捷经营、信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响以外,需求的波动也是影响牛鞭效应的重要因素,并讨论了信息完全共享的情况下牛鞭效应存在的条件.     

销售商的努力影响需求变化的供应链的合约

本文首先重新考察报童模型,认识设计使供应链达到合作的合约的内在机制。在此基础上,提出一个设计供应链合约的一般模型,然后利用此模型分析在销售商的努力影响需求变化的情形下使供应链达到合作的合约的设计框架,同时提出一个在销售商的努力影响需求变化的情形下使供应链达到合作的合约。     

招聘服务供应链中广告合作模型研究

招聘和求职是人才市场上需方和供方之间的博弈过程。鉴于招聘企业与求职人才均无法充分知晓对方的需求信息，招聘网站服务商应运而生。本文引入网站简历适配度参数，构建网站服务商和招聘企业之间的广告合作模型，预测招聘企业、服务商和服务供应链期望效用。招聘企业可选定一个或几个网站服务商构建长期合作的招聘服务供应链，通过合作发布招聘广告的形式，吸引求职人才投递简历，提高招聘效果。研究发现，网站广告效应越大，越便于求职人才投递简历，招聘效用越大；网站简历适配度越大，人才简历量越多，招聘效用越大。预先确定广告赠送率或职位价格，可预测另一参数及其对应的招聘效用。通过案例研究，本文方法成功帮助一家招聘企业选定两个理想的网站服务商构建长期合作的并联招聘服务供应链。实践证明本文广告合作模型具有良好的应用价值。     

存在绿色消费者的再制造供应链信息分享策略

研究了制造商预测信息的分享对存在普通消费者及绿色消费者的再制造供应链的影响.建立并求解了集中模式、分散合作模式和分散竞争模式下信息无分享和信息分享的期望利润模型,并用比较和数值仿真的方法对结果进行了分析.研究表明:合作模式下信息分享对原制造商和供应链不利,对再制造商有利;竞争模式下信息分享对原制造商、再制造商、供应链均有利;当普通消费者支付意愿较小时,随着绿色消费者市场份额的增大,再制品需求上升,新产品需求下降;无论哪种决策模式,原制造商、再制造商和供应链的利润随着绿色消费者份额的增大而增大;集中模式下供应链的总利润大于两种分散模式.     

信息共享：缓解供应链中牛鞭效应的有效方法

20世纪90年代中期，宝洁公司在检查婴儿尿布产品的销售情况时，发现了一个奇怪的现象：虽然零售商店的销售存在波动，但并不剧烈，而分销商给宝洁公司的订单却波动很大。宝洁公司在进一步检查给供应商下的订单时，发现其波动的幅度变得更大了。该现象表明供应链中的需求信息在向上游传播的过程中，最初的微小波动会变得越来越大。正如牛仔所使用的长鞭，顶端的一点儿小小抖动，传递到末端就演化为长长的弧线，这就是“牛鞭效应”。在以顾客为中心的供应链管理中，每个成员在决策时都是利用来自直接下游企业的需求信息进行预测并向上游企业订货，每个企业都面临着前趋和后继间的订货问题。然而当下游需求发生变化时，     

论供应链战略联盟

在经济全球化背景下,企业之间的竞争已上升为供应链的竞争,通过构建和实施全球化供应链管理来提高企业的核心竞争力十分重要。零售业的龙头企业(后文简称零售巨头)是供应链中最靠近顾客的一环,只有这一环节能够直接得到市场的需求信息。如果零售巨头作为供应链的核心企业,则供应链对需求信息的获取和反应都会快捷很多。本文通过分析以零售巨头为主导的供应链合作中的优势和存在的问题,探讨了如何建立和谐的战略联盟关系。     

Supporting the collaborative decision-making process in an automotive supply chain with a multi-agent system

Collaborative initiatives such as collaborative design, collaborative planning and forecasting, and open collective innovation are increasingly accepted as approaches that can effectively support decision-making (DM) processes in a range of different industries. However, justifying and demonstrating the benefits of collaborative solutions remains a challenge and has been under-researched. Demonstrating the feasibility of implementing collaborative solutions as opposed to traditional, linear and transactional solutions is even less evident. The purpose of this paper is to conceive a collaborative solution that supports the multi-level DM process in a real, tree-based automotive supply chain environment. The hypothesis presented posits that by sharing information collaboratively, improvements in terms of the profit and service levels will be found within the supply chain and at every supply chain node.     

Book reviews

This paper is aimed at developing and testing a methodology to evaluate the most appropriate collaboration level within a given supply chain. In particular, the proposed methodology is conceived for logistic networks belonging to the consumer packaged goods industry, e.g. the grocery industry, and it consists of: (i) identifying an approximation of collaboration, (ii) representing through such approximation the different options among collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), vendor management inventory (VMI) and loosely collaborative approach (LCA); (iii) using a simulation-based decision support system to select the best collaboration level. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real-life supply chain in the food and beverage industry. Results conclude that the methodology proposed here proved useful in facing the problem of collaboration level definition among the nodes of a consumer packaged goods logistic network.     

基于Supply-Hub的生产与配送协同模式研究

本文建立了需求随机情况下的基于Supply-Hub的两供应商、单制造商生产与配送协同决策模型,通过与没有Supply-Hub的两供应商-单制造商生产与配送协同决策模型进行对比,证明了Supply-Hub的协同功能能够降低各供应商的成本、制造商的总成本和供应链的总成本。最后通过参数分析,揭示了需求的不确定性对基于Supply-Hub的生产与配送协同模式的影响,研究结果表明：需求不确定性越高,Supply-Hub模式的优势表现的越明显,而且即使需求的不定性非常高,Supply-Hub也可以将配送批量控制在一定范围内;当需求的不确定性超过一定范围时,供应商会采用多批次、小批量的配送方式给Supply-Hub配送零部件来规避风险。     

分布决策环境下生产-分销协同计划研究

针对分布决策环境下因信息不对称使得供应链协同计划求解困难及难以达到全局最优的问题,本文利用多层规划理论和方法构建一个供应链生产-分销协同计划模型,采用模糊交互式协商和遗传算法的优化求解方法对协同计划模型进行求解。该方法求解的结果是一组满足约束条件的满意解,各节点企业根据自身偏好和约束信息决定是否接受该满意解,或者修正各自目标满意度隶属函数重新求解。决策过程具有一定的柔性。最后通过算例给出供应链生产-分销协同计划满意解的求解过程,对文中所建立的模型和算法进行了有效地说明和验证。求解结果说明该模型和协商方法能够有效地解决非对称信息条件下供应链生产-分销协同计划的求解和冲突问题。     

A hybrid approach to the study of CPFR implementation enablers

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is one of the most important but also one of the most difficult collaborative strategies in supply chain management. CPFR has been well documented in past research as providing significant benefit to those that implement it well. It has also been noted that CPFR uptake has been significantly lower than initially expected. The main reason for this slow uptake is the general recognition that successful implementation of CPFR is not a trivial task and the fact that it inflicts dramatic changes to the ‘usual’ way of doing business. Based on the premise that CPFR has significant positive potential for supply chain collaboration, the motivation of this paper is to review CPFR enablers and to develop a model which addresses the most significant ones. To complete this task, a hybrid modelling approach integrating fuzzy extended analytical hierarchy process and interpretive structural modelling is proposed. The model developed is based on an identified gap by the automotive sector and embeds expert opinion, from two separate industrial groups in the automotive sector through the use of workshops. Although potential success factors for CPFR implementation can vary across somewhat between differing supply chains, the results maintain wider general applicability due to the many common issues across sectors. The paper highlights the need for decision-makers to be aware of the most influential enablers prior to a CPFR implementation project and to understand the relationships between these enablers.     

信息不对称下基于区块链驱动的供应链减排信息共享机制研究

信息不对称是阻碍供应链多主体协同减排的主要因素,针对消费者隐匿低碳偏好导致的供应链协同减排效率损失问题,通过与基于委托-代理理论的供应链减排信息甄别机制比较,设计了基于区块链驱动的供应链协同减排信息共享机制。研究表明,消费者获得额外的信息租金是导致供应链减排效率损失的主要因素,生产商和供应商通过分担一定比例的“区块链+协同减排”投资成本,可以获得额外的信息共享收益。“区块链+协同减排”信息共享机制在消除信息租金的同时,可以有效提高供应链收益,并且存在一最优收益分配比例使得生产商与供应商收益达到均衡以及供应链收益达到最优。“区块链+协同减排”信息共享机制可以有效提高供应链上下游企业协同减排效率,是推进我国“十四五”时期减排任务的重要路径之一。     

Decision knowledge sharing: flexible supply chains in KM context

Supply chain excellence has a real impact on business strategy. Building supply chains as flexible systems represents one of the most exciting opportunities to create value and one of the most challenging tasks for the policy makers. It requires integrated decision making amongst autonomous chain partners with effective decision knowledge sharing between them. The key to success lies in knowing which decision has more impact on the overall performance and this can be achieved by appropriate knowledge sharing. In this context, knowledge management (KM) can be used as an effective approach to achieve knowledge sharing and decision synchronisation in supply chains. Flexible supply chains (FSC_s) are more complex and involve multiple autonomous players with varying technical cultures (affects knowledge mindsets), managerial background (affects decision knowledge) and supply chain management (SCM) exposures (affects knowledge sharing attitudes). Thus there is a need to develop demo models that can encourage chain managers towards collaborative knowledge sharing in the supply chains. This paper presents the application of one such model based on decision knowledge sharing (DKS) for improved supply chain management. A simulation model of a flexible supply chain based on DKS framework is developed for demo purposes. The key results are highlighted along with industry implications. The cost based performance of DKS at different levels of flexibility is studied. Thus a careful analysis of the chain with a focus on collaborative decisions is useful to ensure success. This paper addresses this interesting and challenging domain.     

考虑先期和当期资源投入的能源应急协同研究

鉴于当前中国能源应急协同过程中暴露出的临时性和过度依赖政府的问题，构建了两种情况下政府和能源供应链企业的应急协同模型，一种是仅有当期应急协同资源投入，一种是有先期和当期两种应急协同资源投入。通过对两种情况的建模以及结果的比较分析，表明两种情况下政府和能源供应链企业的最优协同参与度一样，且受到边际协同收益及补偿力度等参数的影响；政府的补偿力度与能源供应链企业的应急协同参与度正相关，政府的协同参与度与能源供应链企业的边际协同收益负相关；应急协同资源投入与政府的协同参与度正相关，应急协同资源投入与政府的补偿力度正相关；高效的日常应急资源投入有利于提高当前能源应急协同收益，反之亦然。通过算例分析，对研究结果进行直观验证和说明。建议政府和能源供应链企业应加快建设常态化的应急管理体系；政府和能源供应链企业应权责分明，合理分工；加快构建能源应急补偿机制，调动能源供应链企业应急积极性，使其承担更多的责任，以此提高能源应急协同效率。     

A note on supply risk and inventory outsourcing

To fully accommodate the correlations between semiconductor product demands and external information such as the end market trends or regional economy growth, a linear dynamic system is introduced in this paper to improve the forecasting performance in supply chain operations. In conjunction with the generic Gaussian noise assumptions, the proposed state-space model leads to an expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to estimate model parameters and predict production demands. When the dimension of external indicators is high, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to reduce the model order and corresponding computational complexity without loss of substantial statistical information. Experimental study on some real electronic products demonstrates that this forecasting methodology produces more accurate predictions than other conventional approaches, which thereby helps improve the production planning and the quality of semiconductor supply chain management.     

供应链中的企业合作关系

供应链管理是企业发展最具活力的前沿领域之一。本文首先回顾了供应链中的企业关系演变过程,分析战略伙伴关系与供应链战略的关系,然后从四个方面探讨供应链的战略伙伴关系问题：（1）战略伙伴关系的质量保证体系-过程质量管理与顾客驱动的供应链质量信息系统;（2）战略伙伴关系的知识学习与技术扩散-知识链与基于知识链的知识管理;（3）战略伙伴关系的制度保证-合作对策与委托代理机制;（4）战略伙伴关系的生产协作-同步化生产计划与控制。