非流动性市场中的跨期最优消费和投资策略

本文在Merton跨期最优消费和资产组合的理论框架内引入非流动性资产,构造了一个三资产的连续时间经济模型,探讨流动性约束对投资者最优消费和投资决策的影响。本文用动态规划方法给出了跨期优化问题的解析解。数值分析表明对投资者而言,非流动性资产的真实价值低于其市值,必须引入影子价格来刻划这种流动性效应;流动性约束降低了投资者的福利,并且显著地影响到投资者的消费和投资策略。     

投资者行为如何影响股票市场流动性?——基于投资者情绪、信息认知和卖空约束的分析

投资者交易行为是形成股票市场流动性的前提和基础,市场投资者情绪变化引起投资者产生有偏差的信息认知,通过卖空约束的市场行为选择影响市场流动性.论文首先通过理论推导得出影响市场流动性的三个命题,然后结合我国股票市场发展现状做出相应理论判断并对其进行实证检验.结果发现,在我国股票市场中,投资者情绪对市场流动性的影响是正向的,投资者情绪越高,市场流动性越强;我国股票市场中参与交易的投资者在面临新的消息面时更多的呈现出认知不足的特征.该特征的投资者随着认知程度的增加反而会降低市场流动性;与理论判断相反,我国股票市场中开展的融资融券业务进一步促进了投资者情绪对市场流动性的影响.最后就如何构建我国有效流动性的股票市场提出了四点政策建议.     

涨跌幅限制对股票流动性的影响分析

针对涨跌幅限制对股票流动性的影响存在不同的观点,实证研究了沪市的涨跌幅限制对股票流动性的影响.结果表明,无论采用传统流动性度量方法(交易股数和换手率)还是基于波动性的流动性度量方法,涨跌幅限制约束了股票当天的流动性,致使在以后的几个交易日股票的流动性优于其它股票,即涨跌幅限制存在流动性干扰效应.通过对3种流动性度量方法的有效性比较分析,得出基于波动性的流动性度量方法更适合度量沪市股票的流动性.     

宏观经济政策与居民消费关系实证研究

在分析了我国居民消费特征的基础上研究了我国在不同消费特征下的宏观经济政策的消费传导机制,即分析了可支配收入渠道和边际消费倾向渠道的两种传导机制。这种从我国实际消费特征出发,然后以此为基础研究宏观政策的消费传导机制的研究方法,弥补了从单一方向对宏观经济政策研究的缺陷。实证结果验证了在我国改革中存在经济不确定性和流动性约束情况下经济政策对消费存在平减效应。     

流动性创造、市场利率预期与银行利率动态调整

在银行体系局部流动性问题频发的现实背景下，深入把握流动性创造对银行利率动态调整的影响机理，是理顺我国货币政策传导的重要微观基础.本文从理论与实证上研究了流动性创造如何影响银行利率对市场利率及其预期的动态调整，并考虑了忽略预期市场利率可能产生的遗漏变量问题.研究发现：1)流动性创造对银行利率动态调整具有负向的影响，且考虑流动性创造后市场利率对存款利率的传导相对较低. 2)流动性创造对银行利率动态调整的影响具有异质性，市场利率对国有及全国性股份制银行的传导不够顺畅. 3)预期能够在一定程度上改善市场利率的短期传导，但无法从根本上纠正市场利率的长期传导，尤其是对于国有及全国性股份制银行而言. 4)在流动性创造对银行利率动态调整的影响机制中，同业拆借具有部分中介效应，进一步验证了市场利率异质性传导的原因在于流动性创造在同业市场中存在外部融资约束效应.基于此，建议从实现存款利率并轨、提高中小银行同业市场参与度、加强预期管理着手，疏通货币政策传导渠道，优化货币政策跨周期调节.     

可转债定价异常的流动性差异解释

本文首先通过构造可转债价格指数和标的股票价格指数,比较和分析了我国可转债市场整体现状.并以丰原转债为例,证实了可转债市场价格较其理论价值存在被低估的异常现象.研究发现转债与股票二者的流动性存在很大差异,在进人转股期之后可转债的流动性远不如股票,而且在时间分布上极不均匀;同时发现可转债市场的投资者存在短期投机行为.这些因素是导致可转债市场异常的重要原因.     

基于流动性偏好的上市公司现金持有行为研究

以流动性偏好理论为基础,通过理论模型推导出不同融资约束的公司会依据其现金流波动性进行有差异的现金持有行为决策;以2001～2006年间4 285个公司年数据为样本,实证检验并分析了中国上市公司融资约束、现金流波动性和现金持有量之间的相互关系.结果表明:在中国资本市场,融资约束公司的现金流波动性高于非融资约束公司,而现金持有量却低于非融资约束公司;前者现金持有量与现金流波动性显著正相关,而后者无显著相关性.     

企业隐性软实力能够改善流动性限制吗?

改善流动性限制,保持资产流动性是持续经营的永恒课题,既有研究过度聚焦融资约束改善流动性限制,而面对融资约束程度与流动性限制程度不一致的情况,挖掘融资约束改善流动性限制的决定因素、阐明作用机理,是流动性管理效果得以保障的关键。本文利用企业金融理论模型阐明融资约束对流动性限制的作用机制后,引入公司治理模型,论证企业隐性软实力改善流动性限制的直接作用机制和通过融资约束改善流动性限制的间接作用机制,并改良经典实证模型,并利用上市公司数据对研究命题进行检验。研究发现:企业为降低融资成本、缓解融资约束而保有的资金无法用于经营活动,限制了资产流动性,但相同融资约束强度对资产流动性的限制程度,由企业隐性软实力的强弱决定。同时,企业隐性软实力可以维持股东与管理者利益的稳定,降低货币资金被股东和管理者用来获取私人收益而造成的流动性限制。研究结论为流动性受限企业解决资产流动性限制问题提供了一个新的策略维度。     

中国股市总流动性与资产定价关系实证研究

我们建立了一个包含市场风险和两种流动性风险的三因素资产定价模型,研究中国股市总的市场流动性风险是否在资产定价中得到了反映,其中流动性风险包括用协方差度量的市场收益对总流动性的敏感性风险和用方差度量的总流动性的波动性风险。研究结果表明,中国股市不仅存在显著的市场风险溢价,而且存在显著的流动性风险溢价,而流动性风险中市场收益对总流动性的敏感性风险对资产定价的影响更为显著。     

股票流动性能够解释收益反转之谜吗?

以我国沪深股票市场为例研究了股票收益率反转与股票流动性的关系,以期为股票收益率反转和股票流动性之间关系明确前提条件,提供不同国家金融市场差异性研究的佐证.研究表明我国沪深A股市场存在着显著的反转效应与流动性溢价效应;然而与针对美国市场的理论解释相悖,发现股票收益的反转与股票流动性之间代表了我国沪深A股市场上的两种截然不同的风险因素,股票的流动性因素并不完全是股票收益反转的潜在解释因素.并进一步通过分析得出操纵股票行为可能导致这种流动性解释在我国沪深股市上并不适用,这种操纵股票行为本身直接就会导致我国沪深股市短期收益反转.     

Liquidity and Trading Dynamics

In this paper, we build a model where the presence of liquidity constraints tends to magnify the economy's response to aggregate shocks. We consider a decentralized model of trade, where agents may use money or credit to buy goods. When agents do not have access to credit and the real value of money balances is low, agents are more likely to be liquidity constrained. This makes them more concerned about their short‐term earning prospects when making their consumption decisions and about their short‐term spending opportunities when making their production decisions. This generates a coordination element in spending and production which leads to greater aggregate volatility and greater comovement across producers.     

RISK AVERSION,WEALTH, AND BACKGROUND RISK

We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay for a risky security. We relate this measure to consumer's endowments and attributes and to measures of background risk and liquidity constraints. We find that risk aversion is a decreasing function of the endowment—thus rejecting CARA preferences. We estimate the elasticity of risk aversion to consumption at about 0.7, below the unitary value predicted by CRRA utility. We also find that households' attributes are of little help in predicting their degree of risk aversion, which is characterized by massive unexplained heterogeneity. We show that the consumer's environment affects risk aversion. Individuals who are more likely to face income uncertainty or to become liquidity constrained exhibit a higher degree of absolute risk aversion, consistent with recent theories of attitudes toward risk in the presence of uninsurable risks. (JEL: D1, D8)     

Liquidity Constrained Markets Versus Debt Constrained Markets

This paper compares two different models in a common environment. The first model has liquidity constraints in that consumers save a single asset that they cannot sell short. The second model has debt constraints in that consumers cannot borrow so much that they would want to default, but is otherwise a standard complete markets model. Both models share the features that individuals are unable to completely insure against idiosyncratic shocks and that interest rates are lower than subjective discount rates. In a stochastic environment, the two models have quite different dynamic properties, with the debt constrained model exhibiting simple stochastic steady states, while the liquidity constrained model has greater persistence of shocks.     

含流动性约束及保证金购买的多空投资组合选择模型

本文在基于风险资产的价格服从梯形可能性分布的基础上,引入流动性约束、保证金限制、交易成本和存贷利差等因素,建立了多空投资组合模型。利用非线性规划理论和极大熵方法,给出了求解该模型的一种方法。最后,通过实例验证了主要结果并分析了流动性约束、保证金、交易费和存贷利差等因素对投资组合有效前沿的影响。     

FINANCIAL FRAGILITY,LIQUIDITY, AND ASSET PRICES

We define a financial system to be fragile if small shocks have disproportionately large effects. In a model of financial intermediation, we show that small shocks to the demand for liquidity cause either high asset‐price volatility or bank defaults or both. Furthermore, as the liquidity shocks become vanishingly small, the asset‐price volatility is bounded away from zero. In the limit economy, with no shocks, there are many equilibria. However, if banks face idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, then the only equilibria that are robust to the introduction of small aggregate risk involve stochastic consumption as well as volatile asset, prices. (JEL: D5, D8, G2)     

卖空制度、流动性与信息不对称问题研究——香港市场的个案

应用香港市场的案例,研究了引入卖空制度后个股的交易活跃程度、流动性、波动性与信息不对称的变化,提出了噪声交易者假说,即引入卖空制度后重要的变化是噪声交易者会出于对更高亏损可能的担心而退出交易或变得谨慎.实证结果发现:引入卖空制度会带来交易活跃程度下降、流动性下降以及信息不对称水平升高.同时,通过对知情交易概率(PIN)...     

卖空制度、流动性与信息不对称问题研究———香港市场的个案

应用香港市场的案例, 研究了引入卖空制度后个股的交易活跃程度、流动性、波动性与信息不对称的变化, 提出了噪声交易者假说, 即引入卖空制度后重要的变化是噪声交易者会出于对更高亏损可能的担心而退出交易或变得谨慎.实证结果发现:引入卖空制度会带来交易活跃程度下降、流动性下降以及信息不对称水平升高.同时, 通过对知情交易概率(PIN)的分析发现, 在引入卖空制度后, PIN值确实呈现出显著升高的趋势, 而使其升高的因素就是噪声交易者参与程度降低.噪声交易者假说较好地解释了上述现象.     

A DIRECT TEST OF THE BUFFER‐STOCK MODEL OF SAVING

Recent models with liquidity constraints and impatience emphasize that consumers use savings to buffer income fluctuations. When wealth is below anoptimal target, consumers try to increase their buffer stock of wealth by saving more. When it is above target, they increase consumption. This important implication of the buffer stock model of saving has not been subject to direct empirical testing. We derive from the model an appropriate theoretical restriction and test it using data on working‐age individuals drawn from the 2002 and 2004 Italian Surveys of Household Income and Wealth. One of the most appealing features of the survey is that it has data on the amount of wealth held for precautionary purposes, which we interpret as target wealth in a buffer stock model. The test results do not support buffer stock behavior, even among population groups that are more likely, a priori, to display such behavior. The saving behavior of young households is instead consistent with models in which impatience, relative to prudence, is not as high as in buffer stock models. (JEL: D91)