Ethical Futures and Public-Private Partnerships: Peering Far Down the Track

This article employs an institutional perspective in formulating predictions about the ethical futures of privatization partnerships. Although this paper focuses on ethical concerns in the U.S. public sector, it incorporates a multinational dimension in (a) comparing the meaning of privatization among societies and (b) probing privatization financing in the global economy. Five assumptions that flow from institutional reasoning are made explicit as supports for subsequent predictions. The institutional logic shifts privatization conversation away from conventional debate about competition and efficiency toward centralizing forces in both sectors in response to globalization. In that regard, this study identifies the systemic erosion of (local) community integrity as the key privatization problem of the future.     

Fundamentals of Health Risk Assessment. Use,Derivation, Validity and Limitations of Safety Indices

We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the NAS paradigm. Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as Acceptable Daily Intake, Reference Dose, and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Risk is characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's Proposition 65, where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of conventional air pollutants. These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.     

A New Era in Governmental Reform: Realizing Community

The good government models of the 1990s realized a focus that included reinventing, reengineer-ing, rethinking, quality, empowerment, and devolution of the organization. These organizational reform ideologies sought to increase involvement, improve productivity, manage performance, and drive results. One essential key that has been disregarded in these government models is the involvement of community in the decision-making process. This paper points to the importance of involving and empowering citizens in the decision-making process, particularly in regard to community justice based on the notion of restorative justice system. Community justice, a modern day reform movement with international proportions, is based on the principles of empowering community, repairing harm caused by a crime or disturbance, and reducing risk to the community.     

Context in the Risk Assessment of Digital Systems

As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a context-based approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing randomly. The paper elaborates on the concept of error-forcing context as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify error-forcing contexts for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.     

The Changing Nature of Internal Labor Markets

Research on Internal Labor Markets (ILMs) has had enormous influence on social sciences since the seminal work by Peter Doeringer and Michael Piore, thirty years ago.This article discusses the past and current contribution of the ILM concept to the development of labor economics, organization theory and human resource management and argues that research on ILMs remains important, despite the changes occurred in the economy. Therefore, a renovated effort of theoretical and field studies is required and desirable in order to reach a better understanding of the efficiency and equity issues the knowledge economy poses to the employment relation. In fact, the emergence of a new employment contract, characterized by less sticky a relation between employer and employees asks for a major re-conceptualization of ILMs that cannot be limited to a diverse, more detailed classification, or to an update of their possible variants. Such re-conceptualizationcould be linked with the new organizational forms literature, i.e. with that body of research that models organizations as hybrids or networks.     

Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents

The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a surprise response and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (full-cost information response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the full-cost information response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.     

A comparative study of U.S. and Iraqi students

This study uses a sample comprised of U.S. students and Iraqi students to determine if differences occur over ethical perceptions based on cultural/demographic issues. Irrespective of demographics, the results of this study indicate significant cultural differences between Iraqi students and American students with regard to selected ethical issues concerning graduate education. Specifically the differences occurred in the students' perceptions of winning is everything, selling one's soul, logic before emotion, and pander to professors. Iraqi students consistently viewed these beliefs as more necessary for success in their graduate education than did their American counterparts.     

Human Interindividual Variability in Parameters Related to Health Risks

This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters and parameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per body weight)Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact RateGeneral Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilution via Distribution Volume (e.g., initial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma ConcentrationPhysiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)Functional Reserve Capacity–Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process–differences among people in functional reserve capacity. This has the implication that relevant information for estimating effective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants that are thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.     

Multinational alliances: A note on the perception of technology executives

Multinational alliances in the 1980s came into vogue as one of the prominent instruments of corporate strategies. In the process of forging alliances, especially in the technologyintensive firms, senior technology executives such as directors of R & D often play a vital advisory role. This short paper reports the findings of survey of American technology executives. Among the findings two are noteworthy in the conceptualizations of multinational alliances: Alliances are viewed as a means to solving a firm's strategic problems, and as offering mutual learning opportunities, rather than win-win possibilities for firms entering the alliances.     

Administrative Reform and Style of Work Behavior: Adaptors-Innovators

In this paper the situation of Iranian reform agents from their style of work behavior point of view (such as problem solving and decision making) is analyzed.The assessment is based on a modified version of Kirton's theory of adaptors and innovators (modified KAI). The purpose of this study is to see whether the reform agents were seen as innovative enough to bring about fundamental changes in Iranian bureaucracy. The study of work behavior makes a difference in how people approach, solve and communicate problems, and therefore, may influence the success of reform program. Although the results indicate that the reform program was not perceived as having been as successful as expected, however, about 75 percent of Iranian reform agents could be categorized as innovative-inclined. The level of education and age account for little of the variance in the responses. Differences in the (modified) KAI mean scores of the agents of reform working in different organizations may explain some communication problems.     

Randomized Online Scheduling with Delivery Times

We study one of the most basic online scheduling models, online one machine scheduling with delivery times where jobs arrive over time. We provide the first randomized algorithm for this model, show that it is 1.55370-competitive and show that this analysis is tight. The best possible deterministic algorithm is 1.61803-competitive. Our algorithm is a distribution between two deterministic algorithms. We show that any such algorithm is no better than 1.5-competitive. To our knowledge, this is the first lower bound proof for a distribution between two deterministic algorithms.     

Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

Broadcast Routing with Minimum Wavelength Conversion in WDM Optical Networks

We consider dynamic routing of broadcast connections in WDM optical networks. Given the current network state, we want to find a minimum set of network nodes S such that a broadcast routing using only the nodes in S as wavelength conversion nodes can be found. This ensures that the average conversion delay from the source to all destinations is minimized. We refer to the problem as Broadcast Conversion Node Selection (BCNS) problem. We prove that BCNS has no polynomial-time approximation with performance ratio ln n for < 1 unless NPDTIME(n^{O(log log n)}) where n is the number of vertices in the input graph. We present a greedy approximation algorithm for BCNS that achieves approximation ratio 2+ln n. Simulation results show that the algorithm performs very well in practice, obtaining optimal solutions in most of the cases.     

Circadian Rhythm and the Business Person

Each human being has an internal timekeeping mechanism. To date, over 100 so-called circadian rhythms have been detected. Perhaps the most significant is body temperature. There is an apparent connection between this rhythm and the efficiency with which we do things in the course of the working day. Within individuals, patterns have been discovered which give credence to the popular notions of a morning or an afternoon person, and so on. Our memory changes from morning to afternoon: short-term memory is stronger in the morning, and long-term memory stronger in the afternoon; in schools, morning students have higher grades than students who have other time-of-day preferences. Therefore, a strong case can be made in support of flexible time schedules. It is reported that productivity went up on the introduction of such a scheme. Employee stress has been seen to decline also. When flextime was offered, parents with small children took advantage of the benefit as well as unmarried employees. The only drawback is ensuring that, with so many individual variations in preferences, the needs of the company are fully met. If such a scheme can be devised, however, the research suggests that productivity and efficiency will increase.     

Cancer Dose-Response Modeling of Epidemiological Data on Worker Exposures to Aldrin and Dieldrin

The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human risk assessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workers suggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantly increase human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1 g/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses of aldrin and dieldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 g/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and 0.0001, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 g/kg/day.     

Business student ethical values anew in the 1990s

This paper uses a Rokeach Value Survey methodology to again ask the question, now in the mid 1990s, whether business student ethics are different from non-business student ethics. Additionally, the paper addresses the question of whether a course can alter or change student ethics and values during a semester. Thirdly, this paper attempts to operationalize and empirically test and measure the new ethical concepts of moral management and moral maximization.     

Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis

This paper concerns the combination of experts' probability distributions in risk analysis, discussing a variety of combination methods and attempting to highlight the important conceptual and practical issues to be considered in designing a combination process in practice. The role of experts is important because their judgments can provide valuable information, particularly in view of the limited availability of hard data regarding many important uncertainties in risk analysis. Because uncertainties are represented in terms of probability distributions in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), we consider expert information in terms of probability distributions. The motivation for the use of multiple experts is simply the desire to obtain as much information as possible. Combining experts' probability distributions summarizes the accumulated information for risk analysts and decision-makers. Procedures for combining probability distributions are often compartmentalized as mathematical aggregation methods or behavioral approaches, and we discuss both categories. However, an overall aggregation process could involve both mathematical and behavioral aspects, and no single process is best in all circumstances. An understanding of the pros and cons of different methods and the key issues to consider is valuable in the design of a combination process for a specific PRA. The output, a combined probability distribution, can ideally be viewed as representing a summary of the current state of expert opinion regarding the uncertainty of interest.     

Risk Perceptions,General Environmental Beliefs,and Willingness to Address Climate Change

The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.     

A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste

In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of waste management should be adopted, as opposed to waste disposal, as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.     

Performance Assessments of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Dialogue on Their Value and Limitations

Performance Assessment (PA) is the use of mathematical models to simulate the long-term behavior of engineered and geologic barriers in a nuclear waste repository; methods of uncertainty analysis are used to assess effects of parametric and conceptual uncertainties associated with the model system upon the uncertainty in outcomes of the simulation. PA is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of its certification process for geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This paper is a dialogue to explore the value and limitations of PA. Two skeptics acknowledge the utility of PA in organizing the scientific investigations that are necessary for confident siting and licensing of a repository; however, they maintain that the PA process, at least as it is currently implemented, is an essentially unscientific process with shortcomings that may provide results of limited use in evaluating actual effects on public health and safety. Conceptual uncertainties in a PA analysis can be so great that results can be confidently applied only over short time ranges, the antithesis of the purpose behind long-term, geologic disposal. Two proponents of PA agree that performance assessment is unscientific, but only in the sense that PA is an engineering analysis that uses existing scientific knowledge to support public policy decisions, rather than an investigation intended to increase fundamental knowledge of nature; PA has different goals and constraints than a typical scientific study. The proponents describe an ideal, six-step process for conducting generalized PA, here called probabilistic systems analysis (PSA); they note that virtually all scientific content of a PA is introduced during the model-building steps of a PSA; they contend that a PA based on simple but scientifically acceptable mathematical models can provide useful and objective input to regulatory decision makers. The value of the results of any PA must lie between these two views and will depend on the level of knowledge of the site, the degree to which models capture actual physical and chemical processes, the time over which extrapolations are made, and the proper evaluation of health risks attending implementation of the repository. The challenge is in evaluating whether the quality of the PA matches the needs of decision makers charged with protecting the health and safety of the public.