OFDI对我国产业结构优化影响的实证研究

在21世纪初全球产业结构调整浪潮中,国际直接投资作为实现国际产业转移的主要方式,对产业转出国的产业结构调整起到了积极的作用。本文拟从对外直接投资对母国产业结构影响的角度来具体探讨OFDI的产业结构优化效应。一、模型的选择引入函数,反映对外直接投资与该国产业结构调整的关系。X=f(OFDI,Q),其中,OFDI为每年实际对外直接投资额,X为每年各产业产值与当年GDP的比重,Q是一国产业结构升级的内部条件(该国现有的产业结构、政府的产业政策与管理和该国企业的经营能力)。假设该国内条件不变,即Q固定时得到以下方程:X=α+βOFDI+u为了消除异方差影响,我们进一步对变量取对数,得到方程:lnX=α     

价值链位置与企业对外直接投资决策——基于中国上市公司数据的实证分析

在全球经济不确定性加深和加快构建“双循环”新格局的背景下，理解价值链位置和企业对外直接投资的关系是非常重要的.为此，本文基于手工匹配的2006年—2015年上市公司对外直接投资数据，从微观层面探讨行业的价值链位置对企业对外直接投资的影响.本文发现，行业价值链位置上升显著提高了企业对外直接投资，这一关系与企业对外直接投资动机、投资类型和企业特征有关，而国内产业投资项目的增加有助于该效应的扩张；进一步分析表明，行业价值链位置与企业对外直接投资存在“U”型关系，尤其是战略资产寻求型OFDI,这可能是由发达国家对中国的“技术封锁”导致；稳健性检验和内生性问题的处理再次验证本文的主要结论.本文的结论能够为政府如何制定符合产业发展阶段的政策，明确产业升级过程中要素需求提供有益借鉴.     

安徽金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响

本文针对全国城乡收入差距日益扩大的现象,特以中部的安徽省为例从金融发展的视角,实证探讨了自1989年以来至2009年这20年期间安徽省城乡收入差距扩大的影响因素。实证分析结果表明:安徽省的经济发展与收入分配之间呈倒"U"型关系,即符合"库兹涅茨效应";金融发展规模和效率显著地影响安徽省的城乡收入差距;而政府的财政支出城乡差别也同样影响着城乡收入差距。     

FDI、OFDI与中国绿色全要素生产率——基于空间计量模型的分析

面对错综复杂的国际形势、艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务特别是新冠肺炎疫情的严重冲击，有必要从宏观层面研究FDI与OFDI在影响中国GTFP时是否存在协同效应，以突出国际化问题研究的整体性、系统性和关联性。本文选取中国对外直接投资和外商直接投资的宏观统计数据，在设置四种空间权重矩阵的基础上，利用空间计量模型系统分析了FDI、OFDI及其交互项对中国GTFP的影响。结果发现，FDI对中国GTFP的影响在统计上并不显著；OFDI对中国GTFP具有一定的促进作用；忽略中国GTFP动态效应的影响时，FDI与OFDI仅在人力资本矩阵假设下存在促进中国GTFP的协同效应；考虑中国GTFP动态效应的影响时，FDI与OFDI在促进中国GTFP上存在地理属性的协同效应。本文的研究对于“引进来”与“走出去”国际化战略的实施，以及促进形成国际国内双循环的新发展格局，都有重要的战略意义和实践价值。     

经济发展中的技术创新、技术溢出与行业收入差距演变——对U型假说的理论解释与实证检验

本文将技术差距、行业收入差距与经济发展纳入一个统一的分析框架,用于解释和刻画在经济发展过程中行业间收入差距的变动规律。结果表明,行业间的技术差距对行业间收入差距的作用可分解为正向的"直接效应"和负向的"间接效应",两种效应的综合结果取决于行业间的替代弹性。在经济发展过程中,受技术创新和技术溢出的影响,行业间的技术差距将经历一个先增大后缩小的倒U型变化过程,因此受技术水平制约的各行业的工资差距也将服从先扩大后缩小的倒U型或先缩小后扩大的正U型演化路径。在理论分析基础上,本文运用1999~2007年中国29个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,对理论分析得出的两个假说和一个推论分别进行了检验,实证检验的结果显示现阶段我国行业技术差距对行业收入差距的影响为负,而其他假说也得到相应的证实。     

能源Kuznets曲线:发达国家的实证分析

关于经验环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)文献已经很多了,但就环境质量与经济增长之间是否存在EKC一直没有得出结论。本文采用非线性回归和拟合的方法,对世界货币基金组织(International Money Fund,IMF)发布的28个发达国家从1970到2004年间的人均能源消费、能源消费总量和人均GDP数据进行回归分析,验证能源消费与收入之间是否存在倒U型曲线关系。结果表明,28个发达国家中有17个国家出现人均能源消费与人均GDP之间的倒U型曲线关系,能源消费总量与人均GDP之间也同样出现倒U型曲线关系,其中有10个国家人均能源消费出现拐点,在这10个国家中,除法国、荷兰和瑞士外的其它国家能源消费总量也都出现拐点。     

经济增长与能源强度：基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析

选取1960-2009年间9国的面板数据,基于面板平滑转换回归（PSTR）模型及改进的算法,实证分析了经济增长与能源强度间的关系。实证结果不仅支持了经济增长与能源强度之间倒U型关系的存在,而且表明在一国经济的不同发展阶段,经济增长与能源强度之间存在连续平滑转换机制,机制转换效应使经济变量以阈值为界从一个机制转为另一个机制;目前,中国的经济增长与能源强度处于倒U型曲线的上行阶段,当人均GDP达13208.48美元时,能源强度的拐点或将出现,经济增长对能源的依赖程度或将逐步下降。     

逆梯度OFDI对我国出口贸易结构的影响

逆梯度OFDI指欠发达国家或地区对发达国家或地区的直接对外投资。本文利用我国HS分类下的实际出口数据、逆向OFDI的数据与贸易国的实际GDP、贸易开放度以及中国与贸易国实际双边汇率数据,对我国主要的贸易国进行分析,分别研究逆梯度OFDI对我国对发达国家与发展中国家出口贸易结构的影响。实证结果发现,逆梯度OFDI并未有效提升我国的出口结构。     

缩小收入分配差距,跨越“中等收入陷阱”——基于我国省际面板数据的实证检验

首先提出我国规避"中等收入陷阱"应主要改变收入分配失衡的格局;而后在控制了投资、对外贸易、产业结构的前提下,实证分析发现收入差距过大对我国人均GDP增长有显著的负向影响,最后提出相关对策。     

对外直接投资对绿色全要素生产率的空间效应影响

基于2004—2016年中国30个省（市、自治区）的面板数据,通过空间杜宾计量模型（SDM）实证研究了对外直接投资（OFDI）对绿色全要素生产率的空间效应影响。结果显示：各地区绿色全要素生产率及其分解项存在明显的地区差异;绿色全要素生产率、绿色技术进步和绿色效率变化存在显著的空间相关性;OFDI逆向技术溢出能够显著的促进本地区绿色全要素生产率提高,并且存在显著的空间溢出效应;FDI技术溢出对绿色技术进步具有显著的正向推动作用;进口技术溢出和自主研发能够显著促进绿色全要素生产率和绿色技术进步的提升;环境规制强度对我国绿色全要素生产率具有非线性影响。     

家族企业的对外直接投资与职业化管理

基于制度同构理论,探究家族企业通过对外直接投资嵌入到国内和国外互不兼容、甚至相互冲突的制度逻辑时对其治理结构的影响,提出对外直接投资给家族企业带来制度同构压力,进而影响其职业化管理水平。运用中国沪深上市家族企业2005~2019年的面板数据,研究发现:家族企业对外直接投资的规模和广度越大,高管团队的职业化水平越高;东道国与母国之间的制度距离会增强家族企业对外直接投资对职业化管理的促进作用;企业所在地区的外商投资水平则会削弱家族企业在对外直接投资中提升职业化管理的动力。通过研究组织同时嵌入不同制度逻辑时对治理结构的影响,深化制度同构行为的分析框架,对家族企业的国际化成长和治理转型具有实践意义。     

Immigration,Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper examines empirically the interaction between immigration and host country economic conditions. We employ panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques for a large annual data set on 22 OECD countries over the period 1987–2009. The VAR approach addresses the endogeneity problem by allowing for endogenous interactions between the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of migration contribution to host economic prosperity (positive impact on GDP per capita and negative impact on aggregate unemployment, native‐ and foreign‐born unemployment rates). We also find that migration is influenced by host economic conditions (migration responds positively to host GDP per capita and negatively to host total unemployment rate).     

Are Economic Development and Education Improvement Associated with Participation in Transnational Terrorism?

Using transnational terrorism data from 1980 to 2000, this study empirically examines the relationships between frequency of participation in transnational terrorism acts and economic development and education improvement. We find an inverse U‐shaped association between the frequency of various nationals acting as perpetrators in transnational terrorism acts and per capita income in their respective home countries. As per capita incomes increase from relatively low levels, frequencies of participation in transnational terrorism increase. However, at sufficiently higher levels of per capita income, further increase in per capita income is negatively associated with the rate of participation in transnational terrorism. Education improvement from elementary to secondary is positively correlated with frequency of participation in transnational terrorism events, whereas further improvement from secondary to tertiary level is negatively correlated with participation in transnational terrorism. We also find that citizens of countries with greater openness to international trade, lower degree of income inequality, greater economic freedom, larger proportion of population with tertiary education, and less religious prevalence participate in transnational terrorism events less frequently.     

Female Labor Participation in the Arab World: Evidence from Panel Data in Morocco

Female Participation Rates (FPRs) in the Arab world are low compared with the level of economic development of Arab countries. Beyond anecdotal evidence and cross‐country studies, there is very little evidence on what could explain this phenomenon. This paper models FPRs in Morocco using the richest set of panel data available for any Arab country to date. It finds marriage, secondary education, and GDP per capita to lower FPRs. These findings are robust to different estimators, endogeneity tests, specifications of the FPR equations, and sources of data. The explanation seems to reside in the nature of economic growth and gender norms. Economic growth has not generated jobs for women with secondary education and this factor reinforces the institution of marriage as a permanent alternative to work.     

Investment attributes and learning from failure in foreign direct investments

This study examines the learning effect of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) failure experience in foreign direct investment (FDI). We also examine the contingent effects of two key investment attributes: cultural distance between the host countries and the MNE's home country and entry mode. Using a longitudinal dataset of Korean foreign direct investments during 1990–2011, we find that an MNE's prior FDI failure experience is negatively related to the failure likelihood of a focal subsequent FD, indicating a learning effect of FDI failure experience. Our results show that this learning effect weakens, as the cultural distance between the host countries of prior failed FDIs and South Korea, or the joint venture percentage among prior failed investments increases; however, those interaction effects become insignificant when a focal subsequent FDI is in a culturally different country, or a JV. This study enriches the literature on learning from failure and research on experiential learning in FDI by demonstrating the boundary conditions of the learning effect of the FDI failure experience of MNEs.     

The Impact of Vicarious Experience on Foreign Location Strategy

MNEs can learn from the foreign investment experiences of other firms when evaluating their own foreign entry strategies. We argue that other firms' experiences reduce investment barriers arising from formal and informal institutional environments in host countries that are dissimilar from an MNE's home country, thereby encouraging new entry. Our empirical analysis of foreign entries by Japanese public manufacturing firms over more than a thirty-year period indicates that the prior experiences of other firms in a host country mitigate the negative effect of formal and informal institutional distance on entry decisions: as other firms' experiences in a host country increase, a firm is less deterred by greater institutional distance from entering the country. We also find that the distance-mitigating effect of other firms' experiences in different industries is less significant when a larger body of same-industry firm experience exists in a country, implying a substitution effect between different types of vicarious experience.     

Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex ante) Identical Countries

This paper proposes a symmetry‐breaking model of trade with a (large but) finite number of (ex ante) identical countries and a continuum of tradeable goods, which differ in their dependence on local differentiated producer services. Productivity differences across countries arise endogenously through free entry to the local service sector in each country. In any stable equilibrium, the countries sort themselves into specializing in different sets of tradeable goods, and a strict ranking of countries in per capita income, TFP, and the capital‐labor ratio emerges endogenously. Furthermore, the distribution of country shares, the Lorenz curve, is unique and analytically solvable in the limit, as the number of countries grows unbounded. Using this limit as an approximation allows us to study what determines the shape of distribution, to perform various comparative statics, and to evaluate the welfare effects of trade.     

Efficiency in the generation of social welfare in Mexico: A proposal in the presence of bad outputs

One of the main goals of any country is to secure the general welfare of society, entailing positive levels of education, health and income, coupled with low levels of social inequality. The following paper studies the efficient use of economic and social resources to generate social welfare in the presence of bad outputs in the states of Mexico during 2010. A two-level data envelopment analysis model was used to determine how efficient the 32 states of the Mexican Republic were, considering as model variables the socioeconomic indicators of the three dimensions of human development (education, health and income), and the data on poverty or inequity in the country. The analysis of the results reveals that only 5 of the 32 units studied were efficient in generating welfare and in reducing poverty, while the rest need to increase their welfare levels and especially reduce inequity in education and income using the economic and social resources they possess.     

Inequality in Incomes and Access to Education: A Cross‐country Analysis (1960–95)

Abstract. In the current debate on the relationship between inequality in income distribution and growth, one of the possible links works through access to education. Starting from an optimal demand for education where, among other things, the years of education depend on family income, we derive two testable predictions in the analysis of aggregate data on school enrolments: a negative (linear) dependence of enrolment rates on the Gini concentration index on income distribution; and a positive dependence on public resources invested in education and/or on skill premium in the labour market. These predictions are tested on a (unbalanced) panel of 108 countries for the period 1960–95. The main finding of this analysis is that, once we control for the degree of development with the (log of) per capita output, financial constraints seem mainly relevant in limiting the access to secondary education. However, when considering gender differences, there is evidence that female participation in education is more conditioned by family wealth, in some cases starting from primary education. Finally, there is weak evidence that public resources spent on education raise the enrolment rates.