农村分家类型与三代直系家庭的变动趋势——基于对全国人口普查数据的分析

本研究基于全国人口普查数据,以及笔者已有关于农村分家类型数量模型的分析,对家庭结构再生产过程中的分化因素与组合因素进行了归纳,揭示了家庭结构再生产的内在逻辑,构建分家类型对家庭类型的微观作用机制．进而据此解释1990—2000年三代直系家庭的历史变动,并预测未来独子家庭结构再生产的变动趋势。结论是：（1）家庭结构再生产的过程中,家庭结构的分裂因素对组合因素的优势日益明显,无论是在独子家庭还是在多子家庭都是这样。（2）自1990年以来三代直系家庭比重上升的内在原因是多子分家类型的急剧减少．由此而减少了大量核心家庭,而相对提升了三代直系家庭的比例．三代直系家庭本身的演变趋势是走向日益瓦解,特别是在日益增加的独子家庭中,分裂因素日渐强势并占据主导地位,三代直系家庭在未来将会顽强坚持的判断可能是靠不住的。文章最后回应了学界关于中国家庭结构问题的争论。     

分家模式与家庭规模的相关分析

本研究基于全国人口普查数据,建构了农村的分家模式,通过回归分析论证了分家模式与家庭规模之间的相关关系。进而阐述分家模式与家庭规模在历史变动、区域差异等两个维度上的内在关联。文章最后从市场消费、土地利用、能源消耗与碳排放等角度对其影响做简要归纳。     

分家对老年人死亡风险的影响——基于中国多世代人口数据库(双城)

分家是影响家庭生命周期的重要事件,它对家庭成员的生活质量和健康水平有重要影响。使用中国多世代人口数据库-双城(CMGPD-SC),运用离散时间事件史分析技术考察晚清(1866¹913年)东北双城旗人移民的分家与老年人死亡风险的关系,研究发现:分家增加了老年人的死亡风险,与女性老人相比,分家对男性老年人死亡机会比率的增加更为明显;儿子数量越多的老年人其死亡机会比率越低,传统社会中儿子在提供父母养老资源方面具有重要意义。     

中国女性婚后离家模型——模型的建立、检验及估测其主要参数α与β的解析法

婚后离家往往意味着新住户的建立。它的变化直接引起家庭、住户数量、规模与结构的变动,关系到住宅、家用消费品市场与社会家庭福利规划。对这一社会现象的了解不但具有学术价值,而且有很大的实际意义。我们曾在另文利用中国现有的12省(市)数据,运用生命表分析方法估算了不同省(市)不同时期按结婚年数分的婚后离家率以及其它有关统计指标,对初婚时居住方式与婚后离开公婆(父母)另立门户的现象、过程以及对50～80年代     

第一代独生子女婚后居住模式——基于江苏省的经验研究

二十世纪七、八十年代出生的第一代独生子女正处在婚育阶段,与此同时,他们的父母也在逐渐步人老年。文章利用2007年江苏生育调查数据,从代际关系角度考察了第一代独生子女的婚后居住模式及影响因素,结果表明：子代需要亲代帮助照料年幼孙代的需求、亲代需要子代提供照料的需求显著提高了独生子女婚后与父母同住的可能性,代际交换关系显著影响了居住模式;与非独生子女家庭相比,独生子女家庭更可能与夫妻一方或双方父母同住;城市独生子女比农村独生子女更可能婚后与父母同住：独生子女的性别属性对居住模式有显著影响,独生子与自己父母同住的比例明显大于独生女同她们的父母同住的比例。     

第一代独生子女婚后居住方式:一项12城市的调查分析

本文考察了我国第一代独生子女婚后居住方式的分布及其与非独生子女的差别。结果表明,青年婚后小家单独居住的比例高达2/3,成为第一代独生子女婚后居住方式的主流。在与父母同住的青年中,独生子女与双方父母同住的比例相当;而非独生子女则基本上都是与男方父母同住。此外,双独家庭与老年父母同住的比例最小;单独家庭与老年父母、特别是与女方父母同住的比例最大;双非家庭与男方父母同住的比例最大。单独家庭中青年夫妇婚后居住方式明显受到性别因素的影响。论文探讨了这种居住方式的变化对家庭养老以及家庭观念等方面所具有的意义。     

生育率下降是如何影响我国家庭结构变动的

曾毅在《北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》1987年第4期上发表的论文中,运用他的能适用于中国等亚洲国家的核心家庭与三代家庭并存的家庭状态生命表模型,对我国50年代到80年代初以来人口要素的变化如何影响家庭结构的变动作了探讨。 作者使用我国1950—1970年与1981年的有关数据,通过家庭状态生命表的模拟计算发现:与1891年的人口条件对应的平均家庭规模和核心家庭比例比与1950—1970年人口条件所对应的平均家庭规模和核心家庭比例分别减少11％与29％。这个     

独生子女家庭结构演变与养老方案选择研究①——以安徽省为例

独生子女家庭关系简单、脆弱,具有很强的风险性,为此引起学界和政府高度关注。文章利用2010年全国第六次人口普查数据资料,利用生命表方法构建独生子女家庭生命表．并推算丧子家庭、丧偶家庭、单人家庭等各类家庭结构演变趋势。得出：独生子女家庭中,丧子家庭在子女60岁时达到高峰,比例达到3．1％,其中丧子的父母单人家庭比例达到高峰值2．6％,丧子的父母空巢家庭在独生子女50岁达到高峰1．1％：独生子女单亲家庭（丧父或丧母）在独生子女55岁时达到峰值50％。不同的独生子女家庭,有着不同的养老需求,政府应该根据不同的家庭属性设置多样化的养老支持方案。     

中国农村婚姻形式和与父母共居时间关系研究

本文应用湖北省松滋县的调查数据,对婚姻形式和与父母共居时间的关系进行了研究.结果表明,在控制了其他重要的影响因素后,夫妻的婚姻形式对婚后保持与父母共居关系的时间有显著的影响.嫁娶婚姻夫妻、制度变化型和应时变化型"招赘"婚姻夫妻在婚后与父母共居时间上呈现递增的关系,婚后5年内是最可能改变与父母共居关系的时期.本文最后讨论了出现这种现象的原因及其社会意义.     

80年代以来我国妇女初婚初育间隔变动分析

本研究利用2000年人口普查长表0.95‰抽样数据,首先匹配了育龄妇女曾生子女教与现存子女数一致的样本,通过育龄妇女结婚时间与其长子/长女的出生时间差(精确到月)定义育龄妇女的初婚初育间隔.研究发现,我国育龄妇女初婚初育间隔较短,集中度很高,近7成妇女在婚后一年半以内生育,90%的育龄妇女在婚后2年半以内生育.自20世纪80年代以来,我国育龄妇女初婚初育间隔总体上呈不断下降的趋势.我国育龄妇女的初婚初育间隔存在较大的城乡和地区差异,其中城市育龄妇女初婚初育间隔大于农村,而西部地区育龄妇女初婚初育间隔则高于东部和中部地区.育龄妇女的结婚时间和受教育程度对其婚育间隔均有不同程度的影响,但影响幅度不大.     

The relative stability of cohabiting and marital unions for children

Children are increasingly born into cohabiting parent families, but we know little to date about the implications of this family pattern for children's lives. We examine whether children born into premarital cohabitation and first marriages experience similar rates of parental disruption, and whether marriage among cohabiting parents enhances union stability. These issues are important because past research has linked instability in family structure with lower levels of child well-being. Drawing on the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, we find that white, black and Hispanic children born to cohabiting parents experience greater levels of instability than children born to married parents. Moreover, black and Hispanic children whose cohabiting parents marry do not experience the same levels of family stability as those born to married parents; among white children, however, the marriage of cohabiting parents raises levels of family stability to that experienced by children born in marriage. The findings from this paper contribute to the debate about the benefits of marriage for children.     

摇摆的家庭：农村“新逃婚”的呈现及其产生机制——基于对赣南H乡新逃婚现象的调查与分析

“新逃婚”的出现给农村的婚姻与家庭带来了极大的不稳定。从相关案例分析发现,“新逃婚”现象主要出现在年轻夫妇、有婚生子女、跨省婚姻、男方家庭经济条件差和夫妇长期外出打工的家庭。“新逃婚”在打工潮的背景下表现的更加激烈,以打工过程中女性的婚外情为突出表现,并最终以女性的出走为结局。多数发生新逃婚的家庭男性都难以再婚,而女性则开始了新的婚姻生活。传统道德、舆论与地方性规范的式微,家庭关系与夫妻关系的松散和婚姻市场化程度的提升以及女性择偶观念的经济理性是导致“新逃婚”出现的主要机制。     

The family planning work as suggested by analysis of the age at first marriage in Jiaxing Prefecture, Zhejiang Province]

Since 1970 when the big push for family planning began, China advocated late marriages. In general, the age for late marriage for female peasants is 23 years and 25 for males; for urban females and males, it is 25 and 27 years, respectively. In 1981 the New Marriage Law stipulated the age at marriage to be 20 years for females and 22 for males (these ages are lower than the ages advocated for marriage in actual practice). Despite the New Marriage Law, however, there was in 1981 an increase in the number of people who married before attaining the "late marriage age," thereby creating problems in family planning work. Since 1981, early marriages have been an increasing phenomenon (for the purposes of this essay, age at early marriage is 23 years for females and 25 for males). Jiaxing Prefecture had a 460.53% increase from 1979 to 1981 in the number of women who married early. The following findings were based on studies of Tungxiang and Pinghu Countries. Early marriages as well as "regular" marriages have increased greatly, with early marriage exceeding the number of other marriages. Urban marriages are far more moderate in number than rural marriages, partly because family planning work in urban areas is more effective. Early marriage in areas where family planning work was effective is less extreme than in areas where family planning work was ineffective. Findings from Kayuan Commune of Tungxiang County shows that 47.8% of all male marriages in 1981 were early marriages, as opposed to 6.3% in 1980. The average age for men at marriage in 1981 was 1.6 years younger than in 1980, and .75 years younger for females. Undoubtedly the New Marriage Law influenced the trend in early marriages, but the main reason is that the agarian economy is backwards. Further, traditional attitudes (e.g., "the sooner the children come the sooner the riches come") prevail.     

Welfare Exit,Marriage, and Welfare Recidivism: A Reevaluation of Patterns of the 1980s and 1990s

We examine the relationship between marriage and welfare recidivism for women leaving a first welfare spell, using the 1979–2000 panels of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Previous studies have found that women who marry around the time of welfare exit have lower rates of welfare return than women who stay single. However, more marriages occur before or after welfare exit than occur at the time of welfare exit. We find that marriages that precede or follow welfare exit by more than 12 months are not associated with significantly lower rates of welfare return. We also confirm previous findings that marriages formed within a year of welfare exit are associated with reduced rates of welfare return. However, these reduced rates mostly indicate later welfare returns rather than fewer welfare returns. Overall, our findings indicate a much weaker association between marriage and welfare independence than has been previously reported for this time period.     

Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years

Although there is evidence that the number and ages of children influence marital stability, studies have not systematically tracked the risk of marital disruption throughout the child-rearing years. This study uses marital and fertility histories from the June 1985 Current Population Survey to examine this issue. Continuous-time regression models with ages and numbers of children as time-varying covariates are estimated. Net of controls for age at marriage, year of marriage, education, and marital duration, stability increases with family size up to the third child but starts to decline as family size reaches five or more children. Aging of children is disruptive until the youngest child reaches adulthood, after which marriages become much more stable. Arrival and aging of children is an important dynamic with strong implications for marital stability.     

Gay men from heterosexual marriages: attitudes,behaviors, childhood experiences,and reasons for marriage

In the current study, the attitudes, behaviors and experiences of 26 gay or bisexual men who were married to a woman are examined. Data are provided on childhood family background and experiences, sexual practices with men, reasons for entering marriage, and the "coming out" process. The frequency of childhood sexual experiences was associated with unsafe sexual practices with other men in adulthood. Attitudes toward lesbians and gay men were more negative now than at the time of marriage. The two most frequent reasons for marriage were that it seemed natural, and a desire for children and family life. The results support the hypothesis that internalised homophobia is a factor that leads men into mixed-orientation marriages. Cognitive consistency theory is used to explain the eventual marriage breakdown.     

A comparison of the probability of the dissolution of first and second marriages

This paper applies the techniques of multiple decrement life tables to marriage histories collected as part of the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, in an attempt to examine differences in pattern and level of marriage dissolution by marriage order. The paper considers the process of marriage dissolution in two stages—marriage to separation and separation to divorce—in addition to considering the composite of these two, marriage to divorce. Second marriages are more likely to remain intact only for blacks. For all subgroups of whites, second marriages are either as likely or more likely to dissolve than first marriages. For both first and second marriages, blacks are considerably less likely to obtain a divorce after separation.     

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.     

The Proximate Determinants of Educational Homogamy: The Effects of First Marriage,Marital Dissolution,Remarriage, and Educational Upgrading

This paper adapts the population balancing equation to develop a framework for studying the proximate determinants of educational homogamy. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on a cohort of women born between 1957 and 1964, we decompose the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages into four proximate determinants: (1) first marriages, (2) first and later marital dissolutions, (3) remarriages, and (4) educational attainment after marriage. The odds of homogamy among new first marriages are lower than among prevailing marriages, but not because of selective marital dissolution, remarriage, and educational attainment after marriage, as has been speculated. Prevailing marriages are more likely to be educationally homogamous than new first marriages because of the accumulation of homogamous first marriages in the stock of marriages. First marriages overwhelmingly account for the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages in this cohort. Marital dissolutions, remarriages, and educational upgrades after marriage have relatively small and offsetting effects. Our results suggest that, despite the high prevalence of divorce, remarriage, and continued schooling after marriage in the United States, the key to understanding trends in educational homogamy lies primarily in variation in assortative mating into first marriage.     

Magic Moment? Maternal Marriage for Children Born Out of Wedlock

To test the existence of the “magic moment” for parental marriage immediately post-birth and to inform policies that preferentially encourage biological over stepparent marriage, this study estimates the incidence and stability of maternal marriage for children born out of wedlock. Data came from the National Survey of Family Growth on 5,255 children born nonmaritally. By age 15, 29 % of children born nonmaritally experienced a biological-father marriage, and 36 % experienced a stepfather marriage. Stepfather marriages occurred much later in a child’s life—one-half occurred after the child turned age 7—and had one-third higher odds of dissolution. Children born to black mothers had qualitatively different maternal marriage experiences than children born to white or Hispanic mothers, with less biological-parent marriage and higher incidences of divorce. Findings support the existence of the magic moment and demonstrate that biological marriages were more enduring than stepfather marriages. Yet relatively few children born out of wedlock experienced stable, biological-parent marriages as envisioned by marriage promotion programs.