房地产限购政策实施效果的实证分析——基于双重差分模型的估计

房地产限购政策对遏制房价过快上涨、抑制投资性购房需求具有重要意义。运用我国70个大中城市2009年9月至2011年10月的面板数据,采用双重差分模型对房地产市场限购政策的实施效果进行了系统而严格的实证研究。结果发现,房地产限购政策的实施对我国相关城市的房价有大约1.88%的负面效应,但是短期效果并不明显。     

我国城镇居民收入与消费：理论、现状与对策

消费是经济增长的根本动力。收入与消费密切相关,消费调控政策是宏观调控政策的重要组成部分。我国城市居民收入和消费发展的制约因素包括内外需求不均衡发展,收入差距不断扩大,房价上涨过快、社会保障不完善抑制居民消费行为。促进我国城市居民收入和消费发展,应当加大货币政策在消费调控中的作用,发展和完善信贷消费,完善促进消费增长的税收政策,努力增加居民收入,强化收入分配调节,加快建立覆盖城乡居民的最低生活保障制度,着力抑制房地产价格过快上涨。     

政策、价格与"财富幻觉"——基于浙江房地产市场的实证检验

本文将1998年以来政府出台的房地产相关政策归纳为温和促买型、持续但外部干预型、抑制供给型、抑制需求型四类,通过政策发布后的市场效应的分析,得出温和促买型政策对价格与成交量有明显的拉动作用,抑制供给型政策短期内有促涨作用,房地产市场价格上升引发“财富幻觉”导致非理性需求出现等观点,并利用浙江省1998年至2005年的相关指标月数据的统计分析与granger因果检验,验证了上述观点的客观存在。     

中国商品房价格与经济增长的数量分析

目前,全国大部分省市房价仍有上涨过快的苗头,这说明政府对房地产价格的调控措施还需要进一步完善,政府在社会经济活动中的组织协调工作是必要的,如此,才能“建立市场配置和政府保障相结合的住房制度,也才能满足困难家庭需求”.可以说,中国对房地产的政策调节仍任重而道远.政府只有做好“裁判员”和“守夜人”的工作,才是最有效率和最佳的选择.     

楼市调控中盘攻坚

楼市调控棋至中盘,地方政府对现有政策执行力度的放松和资金分流推动二三线城市房价上涨,成为下半年调控攻坚的两大堡垒。摘自《中国建设报·中国住房》"强化政策落实,巩固调控效果。"住房和城乡建设部相关负责人用12个字阐述了下一步调控工作之要义。此前,国务院总理温家宝主持召开国务院常务会议,在肯定调控取得初步成效的同时,明确提出"部分城市房价上涨压力仍然较大,有的城市调控力度有所放松"。     

限购政策对不同城市房价影响程度分析——基于超一线、一线城市比较分析

文章基于2010年6月至2016年11月我国超一线城市(上海、广州、深圳)和一线城市(南京、武汉、杭州)的加权平均房价,通过采用多元回归实证分析法,研究住房限购政策对两大类型城市房价的影响效应.实证结果表明,就短期而言,住房限购政策不但无法抑制房价增长,而且还会起到促进作用,其中限购政策对超一线城市的房价上涨的促进作用较一线城市更为明显.针对现实状况和比较分析结果,提出在出台限购政策的同时应配套采取相应的政策,使得政策效用最大化.     

经济转型期我国城市房价收入比研究——以长江三角洲城市为例

房价收入比是我国经济转型期一个关系国计民生的突出问题.近年来房价快速上涨,城镇居民住房支付能力明显减弱,房价收入比严重扭曲.经济比较发达的长三角地区城镇家庭的住房支付能力也存在持续下降的趋势.根本的问题是,房价增长的速度不仅明显快于国民经济增长的速度.而且也明显快于国民收入增长的速度.城镇居民的住房问题是不可能通过市场彻底解决的,还必须依靠政府进行干预.因此,政府有必要采取一些房地产调控和家庭住房优惠(包括住房保障)支持政策.     

新年贺词

已然过去的2010年是地产行业形式复杂,却又充满机遇与挑战的一年,国家调控房地产业政策的连续出台及央行的两轮加息,房地产市场从短期看进入新一轮调控期。但从国计民生的长远角度讲,国家政策对于房价抑制真正的目的在于保护而并非打压房地产     

国外对房地产市场的调控措施及其对中国的启示

房地产经济的繁荣曾推动了众多国家经济的发展,但由此引起的房价过高也给很多国家带来了诸多经济问题和社会问题,美国、英国、法国、德国、日本、韩国等国家调控房价的一些具体措施对我国的启示主要表现在:房地产调控需凸显房地产的准公共物品属性,同时房地产调控是个系统工程,税收应该充当房地产调控的重要手段。     

房地产市场系统动力学仿真模型研究 ——以北京市为例

以北京市商品住房市场为例,基于系统动力学理论,从住房供给和住房需求角度确定房价的影响因素,构建房地产市场的系统动力学仿真模型.结合税收政策、 利率政策和土地政策,对2000-2019年商品住房价格进行政策仿真调控,结果显示:土地政策对商品住房价格的影响最大,其次是利率政策,税率政策的影响最小.对房地产市场进行调控,需要以优化土地供应结构为主,合理利用利率政策因地制宜进行贷款利率弹性化调整,并辅之以税收政策,以维持房价稳定、 保障房地产市场健康发展.     

Social work practice in nursing homes: creativity,leadership, and program development

Housing policy in China has undergone profound changes ever since the dismantlement of the in-kind welfare housing system in 1998. A modern housing system has emerged in China in line with a rapidly growing real estate sector. Meanwhile, China is also plagued with similar housing problems that western governments faced during their industrialization and urbanization and are facing now. In response, the Chinese government has attempted to tackle housing problems by imposing strict regulations on the real estate sector, introducing new affordable housing schemes, and channelling and even limiting housing consumption behaviours. However, the outcome has proved to be meagre. The unsound outcome has driven further policy changes. This paper presents an updated trajectory of housing policy development in the post-reform era. It concludes by discussing implications of housing policy changes on social development and argues that housing policy in China is at a crossroads and is ready for a major overhaul.     

论房价调控与房地产市场板块化设计——以北京市为例

北京市特殊的城市性质和定位决定了其房地产市场调控和管理的复杂性。本文从分析我国房改以来国家层面主要的房价调控措施以及北京市细化执行情况入手,探讨北京市房地产市场现状,板块化设计发展思路,即高端商品房、廉租房和最大比例的普通保障性住房三个板块。提出房地产市场板块化发展的意义在于促进社会公平,维护社会稳定,使各路资金各行其道,既可使房价合理又能保障整个市场经济的活力。     

高房价背后的制度缺失

本文分析了我国土地制度、住房供给体制和住宅金融体制的缺失,试图从一个新视角来剖析房价上涨过快的制度因素,并在此基础上提出建立长效机制的政策建议。     

文件治理中的政策采纳及其影响因素研究:基于国家和省级政府政策文本(2008—2018)数据

“文件治国”是中国国家治理的基本表现形态，不同中央政策在各地被采纳与实施的情况也是国家治理问题的核心研究议题。本文尝试突破以往政策扩散研究多只关注特定单项中央政策在各地扩散过程的局限，结合长时段大样本农村政策文本数据，对中央政府2008—2018年发布的多项农村政策在各地的扩散过程进行实证分析，相对系统地考察了中央层面的行政压力和经济激励，以及地方层面的执行能力和内在动力等因素及其交互作用对政策采纳的影响，进而对中国正式政策文件运作的基本过程和内在机制进行探讨。研究显示，自上而下的行政压力越大，经济激励越大，地方层面的执行能力越强，地方政府采纳中央农村政策的概率就越容易显著增加。从交互关系来看，中央政府对农村议题重视程度的提高会减小不同执行能力省份的政策采纳差异，也会减小不同经济激励政策的采纳差异。     

The unregulated private rental sector and the impact on Israeli housing market

Israel’s rapid population growth, deriving from its unique demographics, is generating a consistent rise in the demand for residential housing. The low interest rate environment in Israel since the beginning of the last decade has also contributed to the rise in demand for housing, which exceeded the available supply and led to a continuous rise in the price of housing. The various government programs all attempted to halt the rising prices, with no long-term success, if any. Policymakers focused on making ownership of housing affordable for young couples but directed their activity at repressing the demand for housing among investors and housing upgraders. This interpretive article focuses on analyzing Israel’s housing policy and indicates the built-in failure engrained in this policy, as the demand for housing in Israel is a rigid demand deriving from the country’s demographics and values and therefore attempts at repressing it are futile in essence. The housing policy aimed at making housing affordable for young people must examine, before it is finalized, their overall incentives to own housing on one hand and the obstacles they encounter that prevent them from opting for rentals on the other, and accordingly formulate the features and different terms of the policy. The research conclusion indicates the need to implement a public policy that will promote the rental alternative as an efficient way of meeting the demand for housing on one hand and of curbing the price of housing on the other.     

Social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China and its policy initiatives

The Global Financial Crisis has brought eminent, negative economic and social impacts on China since late 2008, including a considerable decline in GDP growth and a rapid rise in unemployment. Drawing on the published literature and official statistical data, this paper examines the social consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in China, explores various policy initiatives taken by the Chinese government and assesses the effectiveness of these policy initiatives. It argues that the Global Financial Crisis has led to high levels of enterprise bankruptcy and job losses in China. Rural migrant workers and new university graduates are the two social groups most adversely affected. The economic stimulus package and expanded social programmes tend to be short term and economic oriented. Whether the policy initiatives have been effective in mitigating the social impacts of this crisis and correcting the structural imbalance of China's economy is unclear. The paper concludes by suggesting that a new policy approach should be taken to timely and effectively address the negative social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China, in particular by providing a more inclusive and comprehensive social safety net, prioritizing employment generation, and addressing housing deficits.     

Perpetuating the problem: neoliberalism,commonwealth public policy and housing affordability in Australia

This paper argues that the scale of the contemporary housing affordability crisis in Australia is at least partly attributable to the influence of neoliberal ideas over the past three decades. After providing an overview of the nature and scope of the crisis, the process by which housing as a policy problem has been reconceptualised by policy makers and others since the 1970s is examined. This is followed by analysis of the ways in which a number of commonwealth government policies which are ideationally underpinned by neoliberalism have amplified and perpetuated the problem of housing affordability in Australia and, ipso facto, prevented the issue from being addressed. The paper concludes by suggesting that policies which are ostensibly intended to improve housing affordability will continue to founder until the ideational obstacles which are the focus of this paper are recognised, and housing policy is reconceptualised along lines more conducive to the amelioration of the housing affordability problem. The paper seeks to extend the existing literature on housing affordability by explicitly identifying the linkages between neoliberal ideas, commonwealth public policy, and the extant problem of housing affordability in Australia.     

The Hidden Housing Policy: Management of Public Housing Estates in Australia

Management of public rental housing is out of public view because most of the rules, regulations, and management policy directions arise from within the housing authorities themselves. As such, the policies can be vague, contradictory, and unrelated to the actual social and economic situations of the residents of public housing. The housing estate manager must translate these policies into a workable day-by-day relationship with tenants. The quality of housing estates is the result. We must be concerned, for on this quality rests the success or failure of our public housing policy.     

新中国初期北京市农业政策述评

新中国成立后,北京市对农业政策进行了多项改革。土地政策方面考虑首都土地的长远发展,没收地主、富农土地收归国有,并在一定程度上保护了富农的利益;建立了互助组,出现了土地不分红的高级社;在爱国增产、生产救灾以及农业税收、农业贸易等方面均制定了卓有成效的政策。在各项政策的支持下,北京市的农业生产逐渐恢复。     

房价上涨路径分析综述

1998年住宅实行商品化后,房价上升迅速,房价上升是由于我国货币供应量超过国民经济总量所致。货币超发与我国在改革开放后经济的增长模式高度相关,以出口和投资特别是政府投资带动的经济发展,在经济制度选择上引致货币被动和主动的超发。政府投资的资金依赖于城镇土地出让金,在城镇土地出让数量受到限制的约束下,土地出让金被不断地推高,带动房价上涨超过居民的实际购买力水平。