Evaluation of Methods for Assessing the Oral Bioavailability of Inorganic Mercury in Soil

The risks associated with environmental exposures to inorganic mercury are typically assessed based on toxicity studies conducted with the soluble salt, mercuric chloride (HgCl₂). Evidence indicates, however, that inorganic mercury is present in soil as a variety of compounds and that oral absorption of inorganic mercury decreases with a decrease in the solubility of the mercury compound being studied. Thus, while HgCl₂ is approximately 15–20% bioavailable, the bioavailability of cinnabar (HgS) may be 30- to 60-fold less. The solubility and, hence, bioavailability of inorganic mercury in soil is expected to be substantially less than that of HgCl₂ due to the presence of less soluble compounds and their interactions with soil constituents. Quantification of this difference in bioavailability is important in assessing potential risks associated with exposure to mercury-containing soil. A review of available studies supports the expectation that mercury bioavailability in soils will be reduced. This paper reviews methods for assessing soil metal absorption with consideration of the characteristics of the oral absorption of elemental and inorganic mercury that should be evaluated in designing additional studies. Because of the very slow elimination of mercury in some species, it is recommended that a repeated-dose study be conducted. Such a study would yield an estimate of relative bioavailability based on a comparison of tissue mercury concentrations in animals ingesting soil with those of animals receiving HgCl₂. The dose, age, gender, and species of animal selected are not expected to affect relative bioavailability estimates; however, it is recommended that studies be conducted in two animal species. Rats should be used because they have been used in many studies of mercury absorption and toxicity. A species of large animals such as monkeys, swine, or dogs should also be used to provide confirmation in a species with greater similarities to humans in gastrointestinal physiology and anatomy. Other critical factors in designing these studies, such as selection and characterization of soil samples, are also addressed.     

Combined Effects of Contaminant Desorption and Toxicity on Risk from PAH Contaminated Sediments

A strong inverse correlation was observed between the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mass fraction desorbed, a surrogate measure of bioavailability, and relative carcinogenicity, as quantified by potency equivalency factors (PEFs), for two study sediments from the New York/New Jersey Harbor estuary. Because compounds with the highest toxicity, such as dibenz(a,h)anthracene and benzo(a)pyrene (BAP), also tended to be the least rapidly and least extensively desorbed, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) default guidance may dramatically overestimate risk from exposure to PAH-contaminated soils or sediments. A "relative risk index" (RRI) was developed to account for the combined effects of compound-specific bioavailability and toxic potency in estimating excess cancer risk. Using this approach, estimated excess cancer risk may be diminished by as much as a factor of 159 times versus default EPA guidance. Also, the hierarchy of estimated risk between study sediments and among treatment fractions of study sediments differed using the two approaches, implying that the default approach may inaccurately determine site clean-up priorities. The percentage contribution of each potentially carcinogenic priority PAH to total excess cancer risk was computed under various scenarios. In each case, the contribution of BAP to total excess cancer risk was remarkably invariable, for example, ranging from 48% to 52% in one sediment, and 44% to 54% in the other, over four different exposure durations. These results suggest that BAP may be an excellent indexing compound for gauging relative exposure risk across sediments. Other important contributors to total excess cancer risk were benz(a)anthracene and dibenz(a,h)anthracene. Together, these three compounds comprised nearly 90% of total excess cancer risk from all PAHs in every scenario. This integrated RRI approach may enable regulators to more accurately gauge relative risks and make more informed sediment management decisions.     

The Environmental Geochemistry and Bioaccessibility of Mercury in Soils and Sediments: A Review

There have been many studies of mercury geochemistry in the environment and its bioconcentration/bioaccumulation through the aquatic food chain. However, there is a dearth of information regarding the bioaccessibility of mercury in human receptors exposed primarily by soil ingestion. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of mercury bioaccessibility and speciation in soils, and the utility of speciation methods to estimate mercury bioaccessibility. We conclude that additional research is necessary to determine: (1) whether analytical measurements can adequately determine the bioaccessibility of mercury in sediments and soils; (2) the accuracy of in vitro analyses in assessing mercury bioaccessibility; (3) the ability of mercury to cross tissue membranes of the mouth, esophagus, stomach, and the small and large intestines; (4) the speciation and distribution of mercury in biological fluids; and (5) mercury bioavailability using an in vivo animal model relevant to human gastrointestinal tract conditions.     

Current Views on the Oral Bioavailability of Inorganic Mercury in Soil: Implications for Health Risk Assessments

Due to the presence of mercury at a number of major contaminated sites in the United States, the bioavailability of inorganic mercury in soil following ingestion has emerged as an important public health issue. Studies of the leachability/solubility of inorganic mercury in soil have shown that it is largely immobile, thereby suggesting that it will not be readily available for absorption in the gastrointestinal tract. Ignoring the effect of the soil matrix on decreasing bioavailability may result in a substantial overprediction of risks due to ingestion of contaminated soil. This paper discusses current knowledge about the oral bioavailability of inorganic mercury in soil and offers suggestions about how these data may be applied in human health risk assessment. Though precise estimates are not available, in vivo and in vitro estimates of the bioavailability of different inorganic mercury species in different matrices suggest that the bioavailability of mercury in soil is likely to be significantly less, on the order of at least three- to tenfold, than the bioavailability of mercuric chloride, the species used to derive the toxicity criteria for inorganic mercury. Because bioavailability can vary significantly with soil type, soil aging, the presence of co-contaminants and other factors, it is suggested that whenever the fiscal aspects justify a more precise estimate of bioavailability, site-specific estimates be developed. To develop a database for identifying a less expensive and more efficient method for estimating bioavailability, it is suggested that in vivo studies be conducted concurrently with in vitro studies. However, due to the lack of precision associated with the derivation of the most widely-used health guidance value for inorganic mercury (the US EPA RfD), additional work to address the uncertainties in the RfD is recommended.     

The Bioaccessibility of Lead (Pb) from Vacuumed House Dust on Carpets in Urban Residences

Risk assessments for toxicants in environmental media via oral exposure often rely on measurements of total concentration in a collected sample. However, the human digestive system cannot dissolute all of a toxicant present in the binding matrix, and cannot absorb it with nearly 100% efficiency. In vitro bioaccessibility has been developed as a method to estimate oral bioavailability of a toxicant using a physiologically-based extraction procedure. Bioaccessibility measurements are more physiologically relevant than strong acid leaching measurements of concentration. A method for measuring bioaccessible lead in house dust was derived from the bioaccessibility method currently used for heavy metals in contaminated soils. House dust was collected from carpets in typical urban residences. Bioaccessible lead was measured in house dust (<75 microm) from the homes of 15 participants. The bioaccessibility ranged from 52.4% to 77.2% in gastric fluid, and 4.9% to 32.1% in intestinal fluid. House dust samples from five homes were analyzed to assess the relationship among lead bioaccessibility of three particle size fractions (<75, 75-150, and 150-250 microm). Changes in lead bioaccessibility as a function of particle size fraction were not significant for gastric fluid (p= 0.7019); however they were significant for intestinal fluid (p= 0.0067). This decrease of bioaccessibility may result from the readsorption of dissolved lead onto the dust particles or precipitation of lead with phosphates in a high-pH environment. The bioaccessibility data obtained for two biofluids were applied to the IEUBK model, and results for intestinal bioaccessibility of lead provide support for the model default value of 30% lead bioavailability of dust as a reasonable population indicator for dose, but the higher values for gastric bioaccessibility of lead appeared to provide an upper bound that approached actual blood lead levels in the children living in the studied homes. This upper bound seemed to overcome some of the limitations of the model when it lacks child-specific activity data and characterization of all exposure routes.     

Ethylene Oxide Cancer Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiological Data: Application of Revised Regulatory Guidelines

Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of the animal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenarios and a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10^–6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for lymphoid tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.     

Characterizing the Noncancer Toxicity of Mixtures Using Concepts from the TTC and Quantitative Models of Uncertainty in Mixture Toxicity

This article explores the use of an approach for setting default values for the noncancer toxicity, developed as part of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), for the evaluation of the chronic noncarcinogenic effects of certain chemical mixtures. Individuals are exposed to many mixtures where there are little or no toxicological data on some or all of the mixture components. The approach developed in the TTC can provide a basis for conservative estimates of the toxicity of the mixture components when compound-specific data are not available. The application of this approach to multiple chemicals in a mixture, however, has implications for the statistical assumptions made in developing component-based estimates of mixtures. Specifically, conservative assumptions that are appropriate for one compound may become overly conservative when applied to all components of a mixture. This overestimation can be investigated by modeling the uncertainty in toxicity standards. In this article the approach is applied to both hypothetical and actual examples of chemical mixtures and the potential for overestimation is investigated. The results indicate that the use of the approach leads to conservative estimates of mixture toxicity and therefore its use is most appropriate for screening assessments of mixtures.     

Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds

This paper studies the interaction between default and liquidity for corporate bonds that are traded in an over‐the‐counter secondary market with search frictions. Bargaining with dealers determines a bond's endogenous liquidity, which depends on both the firm fundamental and the time‐to‐maturity of the bond. Corporate default decisions interact with the endogenous secondary market liquidity via the rollover channel. A default‐liquidity loop arises: Assuming a relative illiquid secondary bond market in default, earlier endogenous default worsens a bond's secondary market liquidity, which amplifies equity holders' rollover losses, which in turn leads to earlier endogenous default. Besides characterizing in closed form the full interdependence between liquidity and default for credit spreads, our calibrated model can jointly match empirically observed credit spreads and liquidity measures of bonds across different rating classes.     

供应链契约稳定性及其在期权博弈视角下的优化

供应链契约作为一种有效的经营合作模式,已得到理论界和企业界广泛认同,并在实际的产业化经营中占据主导地位。由于市场需求及价格波动的不确定性引发的机会主义行为,导致契约在执行过程中存在逆向选择和道德风险,严重影响了产业化组织的运行效率。为探索供应链契约模式的稳定性并制定有效的优化策略,通过静态博弈模型得出供应链契约模式价格波动区间,进而深入分析了决策参数对契约稳定性的影响。在此基础上,借助期权市场的风险规避功能,寻求风险外化通道以协调契约主体间的利益冲突,为探索供应链契约模式中供应商的高违约率问题提供新的视角。     

Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization

Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. Our Binomial No‐Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, contingent or noncontingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that only no‐default equilibria would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or handling default. Our Binomial Leverage Theorem shows that equilibrium Loan to Value (LTV) for noncontingent debt contracts is the ratio of the worst‐case return of the asset to the riskless gross rate of interest. In binomial economies, leverage is determined by down risk and not by volatility.     

Regulatory treatment of the double default effect under the New Basel Accord: how conservative is it?

Within the internal ratings-based approach of the New Basel Accord, banks have the possibility to consider the so-called double default effect of guaranteed exposures. However, the correlation assumptions inherent in the regulatory recognition of the double default effect appear to be quite conservative. To evaluate the degree of conservatism, on one hand, the regulatory correlation assumptions are compared with the results of a broad range of empirical studies. On the other hand, additional simulation experiments are carried out. While the comparison with the empirical results indeed suggests that the correlation parameters assumed by the regulatory authorities are much too large, the simulation experiments show that the assumed values are not unrealistic for capturing the intended effects.

Bogen's Critique of Linear‐No‐Threshold Default Assumptions

In an article recently published in this journal, Bogen⁽¹⁾ concluded that an NRC committee's recommendations that default linear, nonthreshold (LNT) assumptions be applied to dose– response assessment for noncarcinogens and nonlinear mode of action carcinogens are not justified. Bogen criticized two arguments used by the committee for LNT: when any new dose adds to a background dose that explains background levels of risk (additivity to background or AB), or when there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in susceptibility (SIH) in the exposed human population. Bogen showed by examples that SIH can be false. Herein is outlined a general proof that confirms Bogen's claim. However, it is also noted that SIH leads to a nonthreshold population distribution even if individual distributions all have thresholds, and that small changes to SIH assumptions can result in LNT. Bogen criticizes AB because it only applies when there is additivity to background, but offers no help in deciding when or how often AB holds. Bogen does not contradict the fact that AB can lead to LNT but notes that, even if low‐dose linearity results, the response at higher doses may not be useful in predicting the amount of low‐dose linearity. Although this is theoretically true, it seems reasonable to assume that generally there is some quantitative relationship between the low‐dose slope and the slope suggested at higher doses. Several incorrect or misleading statements by Bogen are noted.     

中小企业违约风险系统性和异质性测度——基于违约风险成分分析法的研究

与大中型企业相比，经济环境恶化或突发事件冲击使中小企业资产价值更易大幅下降，不仅单个企业违约风险急增，企业间的违约相关性也明显变大。然而不同类型中小企业违约风险变化特征仍有较大差异。为了更好测度中小企业违约风险、分析其相关性和差异性，本文在资产价值满足跳-扩散过程假定下，将或有权益分析法、组合违约风险分析与系统波动风险测度β相结合，把违约风险分解为系统成分和异质成分。系统成分越大，表明企业违约风险越易受外部经济环境和相关违约风险影响。异质成分越大则表明企业违约风险与自身异质性特征更为相关。实证研究表明，违约风险成分分析能较好解释中小企业违约风险的相关性和差异性，有助于违约风险分类管理。     

A Time‐Dependent Risk Assessment for Broken Compact Fluorescent Lamps

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ambient air quality guidelines are meant to limit long‐term exposures of toxins to safe levels. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for what constitutes a safe level from a one‐time (or very infrequent) short exposure(s). In the case of mercury, a review of the derivation of the EPA ambient air quality standard shows that it implicitly assumes a tissue burden model. The time dependence of the tissue burden is commonly described in terms of a half‐life, a modeling assumption that presumes that the decline in the tissue burden after a single exposure can be approximately described as an exponential decay. In this article, we use a simple exponential tissue burden model to derive a time‐dependent no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for mercury concentrations in air. The model predicts that tissue body burden will asymptotically approach the EPA air quality level for long exposure times, and reach workplace standard levels for exposures of a few hours. The model was used along with data on mercury levels from experimental work done by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection to evaluate the risks from a broken compact fluorescent lamp in a residential setting. Mercury levels approached the NOAEL only when the debris was left in an almost sealed room. Normal common‐sense cleaning measures: removal of debris to an outside area, and ventilation of the room for several minutes, reduced exposures to less than 1% of the NOAEL.     

借款陈述文字中的违约信号——基于P2P网络借贷的实证研究

P2P借贷让借款人可以通过借款陈述文本去获得投资者的信任，所以借款陈述又成为投资者识别借款人违约风险的重要信息来源。但是如何解读复杂的、不规则的、包含各种信息的借款陈述面临较大挑战。针对违约风险的两个来源：还款能力和还款意愿，以及它们的潜在因素，从P2P借贷平台‘人人贷’借款项目中的借款陈述文本中，通过人工识别提取了文字特征信息、反映还款能力和还款意愿的信息以及对资金需求的情感特征信息，并检验这些信息对识别借款人违约风险的显著性。研究发现借款陈述文本的字数越多、存在重复语句，违约风险越大；借款陈述文本中存在还款能力信息，或者同时存在表示还款意愿的保证性语言以及对自己信用状态补充说明的信息，则违约风险越小；借款人在情感上表现出对资金需求的急切性越高，违约风险越大。研究结论为将来运用程序实现智能文本算法识别借款陈述文本中的违约信息提供了研究方向。     

需求随机时的存货质押贷款质押率决策研究

需求波动导致的风险是存货质押融资区别于有价证券质押融资的主要方面.本文研究了当存货的需求随机波动时,银行的最优质押率决策问题,并详细分析了不同的风险偏好对质押率的影响,结论表明风险厌恶及损失规避时的质押率均低于风险中性时的质押率.本文同时还分析了当质押率影响贷款企业的库存决策时,银行的最优质押率决策.最后,通过数值算例验证了文章的结论.     

Bidding under auctioneer default risk

In a financially turbulent economy, participants of a procurement auction should consider in their bids the event of default of the auctioneer, which may result to substantial damages for the winning bidder. We examine a sealed bid auction, with private cost values and interdependence among the beliefs of the bidders about the auctioneer׳s default risk. The probability of payment of the bid price by the auctioneer is estimated by each bidder. For a first and a second price auction, we derive equilibrium bidding strategies, which address the risk of default and optimally adjust the bid price, introducing a risk premium in the form of an additional mark-up. A numerical illustration of the proposed strategies is provided. The effect of auctioneer׳s risk of default on the procurement project cost is examined. Financial arrangements that may be used to relax or eliminate the effect of the risk of default, such as early payment methods, third party guarantees or insurance programs are discussed and evaluated in comparison with the approach of risk premium on bid price.     

股票市场的极值风险测度及后验分析研究

通过对上证综指和世界股市若干重要指数的实证研究发现,无论是在成熟资本市场还是新兴资本市场当中,极值理论(EVT)及其工具都能更加准确地刻画实际市场的极端波动和风险状况.详细说明了不同收益分布假定下风险价值(VaR)的计算方法及其后验分析(Back-testing)过程,证明了与非条件和条件正态分布以及条件t分布等主流金融理论的收益分布假定相比,条件EVT分布在测度极端市场风险时所表现出的优越性,同时说明了在不同概率水平下各种收益分布假定的精确度和适用范围.     

Connecticut's Dioxin Ambient Air Quality Standard

Connecticut is the first state in the country to have adopted an ambient air quality standard for dioxins at 1 pg/m³, 2,3,7,8-TCDD equivalents, as annual average. This paper describes the scientific basis and the methodology used by the State Department of Health Services (the risk assessment agency) in assisting the Department of Enviromental Protection (the risk management agency) to establish a health-based dioxin standard. This standard protects the public health from the aggregate effect of all sources of dioxin emissions in the vapor and particulate phases. The risk assessment methodology included: a limit on total daily dioxin exposure from all media and sources based on reproductive effects; a multimedia nonsource-specific exposure assessment; an apportionment by media of the health-based limit (including background dosing rate); an evaluation of inhalation bioavailability and cancer risk based on a calculation of a range of upperbound cancer risk estimates using different potency, bioavailability, and particle phase assumptions.