Stochastic Choice and Revealed Perturbed Utility

Perturbed utility functions—the sum of expected utility and a nonlinear perturbation function—provide a simple and tractable way to model various sorts of stochastic choice. We provide two easily understood conditions each of which characterizes this representation: One condition generalizes the acyclicity condition used in revealed preference theory, and the other generalizes Luce's IIA condition. We relate the discrimination or selectivity of choice rules to properties of their associated perturbations, both across different agents and across decision problems. We also show that these representations correspond to a form of ambiguity‐averse preferences for an agent who is uncertain about her true utility.     

The Monotonicity of Individual and Market Demand

This paper studies the monotonicity of individual and market demand with the aid of the indirect utility function. We identify sufficient (and in a sense, necessary) conditions on an agent's indirect utility which will guarantee that he has a monotonic demand function. Our conditions also point to a natural way of extending the result of Hildenbrand (1983). Hildenbrand showed that market demand is monontonic if the income distribution has a downward sloping density, even though individual agents' demand function might violate monotonicity. Using the indirect utility function, we introduce a measure of violations of individual monotonicity that allows us to identify a larger class of density functions that will generate a monotonic market demand.     

同类异质产品市场博弈Nash均衡最优策略模型

本文按照Nash均衡解的要求,建立同类异质产品市场用户需求分布及效用结构模型,导出不同定位的企业所实施竞争策略的若干最优条件,通过计算不同策略设计下产品相应的临界功能效用值,参与竞争的企业可找到适合于市场需求的最优决策。     

Utility‐consistent Brand Demand Systems with Endogenous Category Consumption: Principles and Marketing Applications*

This paper introduces the design and implementation of utility‐consistent, brand, and category demand systems. It extends formal demand analysis to the area of brand and category demand, which directly concerns marketing researchers and managers. The proposed brand demand system is a set of interrelated demand functions that are derived explicitly from a utility function describing consumer preferences. The model generalizes by the integration of category expenditures, which are determined endogenously. The theoretical plausibility of the proposed demand model is demonstrated first and, subsequently, brand and category level systems are derived. Econometric methods for estimating the systems are also developed and illustrated in empirical data. The results yield empirically determined, quantitative insights into the structure of consumer demand for brands and product categories. The proposed approach has the attractive feature of structuring the interdependencies of consumer decisions and ensuring an explicit role for theory in applied research.     

网络外部性对双渠道供应链信息分享的影响

研究了网络外部性对双渠道供应链信息分享的影响。分别建立了存在网络外部性和不存在网络外部性下的双渠道供应链模型，通过比较零售商信息分享和不分享下其与制造商的期望利润。研究发现：当未考虑产品的网络外部性时，零售商不与制造商分享其市场需求信息，与已有研究一致。当考虑了产品网络外部性且网络外部性较小时，零售商仍不与制造商分享市场需求信息；然而，当网络外部性较大时，零售商与制造商分享其市场需求信息。此外，零售商与制造商共享其市场需求信息有助于增加制造商和供应链利润。     

LEARNING TO REOPTIMIZE CONSUMPTION AT NEW INCOME LEVELS: A RATIONALE FOR PROSPECT THEORY

This paper provides a theoretical rationale for three experimental results of Prospect Theory: risk preferences are over gains and losses, loss aversion, and diminishing sensitivity. We consider a (boundedly rational) decision maker who does not find her new optimal consumption bundle with certainty when she is faced with a new income level. This alters her indirect utility function and makes her more risk averse at her current reference income level and less risk averse for a range of incomes below her reference income level. (JEL: D11)     

效用不对称假设下通用竞争战略约束优化建模——Palepu假设的解析验证

提出差异化和非差异化产品效用不对称假设，并将其嵌入效用函数和Cournot均衡模型，同时引入等绩效约束条件和需求价格弹性约束条件，建立并求解非线性规划模型，导出成本领先战略定理，并进一步导出成本领先战略的成本-效用关系定理、产量关系和价格关系定理.最后，导出了纯战略的财务识别条件和溢价条件，给出了Palepu假设的首次解析证明.研究表明，成本领先战略是内生的，相对于差异化产品，成本领先产品具有相互关联的低成本、低效用特性和高产量、低价格的特性，对差异化产品的价格比低于两种产品的成本比;纯战略识别的充分必要条件是具有较低营业利润率和较高资产周转率的公司为成本领先，相反的公司则是差异化，这与Palepu假设一致.本研究还显示，Porter溢价条件不是差异化战略的充分条件.     

Measuring unfairness feeling in allocation problems

In this paper, we introduce a new measure of social fairness based on unfairness feelings of the players involved in an allocation problem, e.g., cake-cutting problem or shift scheduling. We only require that each player be described by a von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function. Next, we propose a social normalization of each player׳s utility function, based on how each player sees the other players׳ shares through her own utility function. Further, we extend this normalization idea to a setting where the players are represented by a weighted oriented graph, where the weights assess the relatedness of (or similarities between) the agents. Among other results, we establish some links between our measures of fairness and those classically used in the cake-cutting-problem literature.     

Management of school locations allowing for free school choice

Nearly without exception, we find in literature (school) location models with exogenously given demand. Indeed, we know from a large number of empirical studies that this assumption is unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a discrete location model for school network planning with free school choice that is based on simulated utility values for a large average sample. The objective is to maximize the standardized expected utility of all students taking into account capacity constraints and a given budget for the school network. The utility values of each student for the schools are derived from a random utility model (RUM). The proposed approach is general in terms of the RUM used. Moreover, we do not have to make assumptions about the functional form of the demand function. Our approach, which combines econometric and mathematical methods, is a linear 0–1 program although we consider endogenous demand by a highly non-linear function. The proposed program enables practicing managers to consider student demand adequately within their decision making. By a numerical investigation we show that this approach enables us to solve instances of real size optimally – or at least close to optimality – within few minutes using GAMS/Cplex.     

考虑消费者效用与保鲜的生鲜农产品EOQ模型

针对生鲜农产品新鲜度随时间减小的特点,构造受生鲜农产品新鲜度和零售价格影响的消费者时变效用函数,分析了消费者在不同时刻够买生鲜农产品的效用和数量的变化,并基于此建立了消费者偏好影响需求的生鲜农产品EOQ模型;以提高消费者效用为目的,分析了两种不同保鲜情形下零售商的最优订货决策和最优保鲜投入。研究发现,零售商的最优保鲜投入并不能使消费者效用最大化,满足消费者对生鲜农产品新鲜度的要求必须依靠政府的宏观调控。     

Vector Expected Utility and Attitudes Toward Variation

This paper proposes a model of decision under ambiguity deemed vector expected utility, or VEU. In this model, an uncertain prospect, or Savage act, is assessed according to (a) a baseline expected‐utility evaluation, and (b) an adjustment that reflects the individual's perception of ambiguity and her attitudes toward it. The adjustment is itself a function of the act's exposure to distinct sources of ambiguity, as well as its variability. The key elements of the VEU model are a baseline probability and a collection of random variables, or adjustment factors, which represent acts exposed to distinct ambiguity sources and also reflect complementarities among ambiguous events. The adjustment to the baseline expected‐utility evaluation of an act is a function of the covariance of its utility profile with each adjustment factor, which reflects exposure to the corresponding ambiguity source. A behavioral characterization of the VEU model is provided. Furthermore, an updating rule for VEU preferences is proposed and characterized. The suggested updating rule facilitates the analysis of sophisticated dynamic choice with VEU preferences.     

消费者效用测度与产业需求函数

把概率解释为Ramsey的信念度,商品效用便可赋予von Neumann-Morgenstern效用性质从而得到测度;按二元价值结构的消费偏好特性建立新的需求模型,可导出在严格意义上用于产业分析的非线性需求函数,为解释现代产业组织及竞争行为提供科学依据。     

含期权的最优投资消费决策

当投资对象中含有期权时如何安排自己的投资和消费是当前投资者所面临的实际问题。本文在Black-Scholes模型假设的市场条件下,假定投资者的投资对象中含有一个欧式看涨期权,讨论了在该情形下投资者如何进行投资和消费的问题。建立效用最大化模型,应用最优控制原理得到了关于指数效用函数的最优投资消费策略,另外还得到了投资者的套期保值策略,并对这两种策略进行了对比,得到了它们之间的关系式。最后给出了数值示例验证了最优策略优于套期保值策略。     

Axiomatic Justification for a Geometric Quality Aggregation Function

A central issue in many decision-making situations is the need to consider multiple factors. A special case of multifactor modeling is the quality aggregation problem, which is to derive an overall quality measurement from a set of component quality measurements. Although much research has been published regarding the components of a quality construct, alternative methods for aggregating quality components have been largely ignored. The function generally used for this aggregation is an arithmetic weighted average. This article proposes four axioms that are intuitively desirable in a quality aggregation function. Concepts are drawn from related disciplines such as utility theory, decision theory, and microeconomics. Empirical evidence is presented to support the axioms. The arithmetic weighted average function is found to be inconsistent with all four axioms. A geometric, or multiplicative, function form is presented as a superior alternative, consistent with the four axioms. Model specification issues and other implications are discussed.     

我国综合客运需求函数及各种客运方式的需求格局

分析了我国客运需求的主要影响因素,提出基本需求和活动需求概念,研究了我国客运需求函数的一般表达式和实证形式。认为各客运方式的需求应依赖于其竞争的状态,各客运方式将主要集中在典型竞争因素上开展竞争,其各自的市场需求份额将趋于一个较合理的比例。用AHP定量方法并结合定性方法推算出了这一比例。     

Fair Production and Allocation of an Excludable Nonrival Good

We study fairness in economies with one private good and one partially excludable nonrival good. A social ordering function determines for each profile of preferences an ordering of all conceivable allocations. We propose the following Free Lunch Aversion condition: if the private good contributions of two agents consuming the same quantity of the nonrival good have opposite signs, reducing that gap improves social welfare. This condition, combined with the more standard requirements of Unanimous Indifference and Responsiveness, delivers a form of welfare egalitarianism in which an agent's welfare is measured by the quantity of the nonrival good that, consumed at no cost, would leave her indifferent to the bundle she is assigned.     

Individual Sense of Justice: A Utility Representation

We present an axiomatic model depicting the choice behavior of a self‐interest seeking moral individual over random allocation procedures. Individual preferences are decomposed into a self‐interest component and a component representing the individual's moral value judgment. Each component has a distinct utility representation, and the preference relation depicting the choice behavior is representable by a real‐valued function defined on the components utilities. The utility representing the self‐interest component is linear and the utility representing the individual's moral value judgment is quasi‐concave. The addition of a hexagon condition implies that the utility representing the individual's preference is additively separable in the components utilities.     

EGO UTILITY,OVERCONFIDENCE, AND TASK CHOICE

This paper models behavior when a decision maker cares about and manages her self‐image. In addition to having preferences over material outcomes, the agent derives “ego utility” from positive views about her ability to do well in a skill‐sensitive, “ambitious,” task. Although she uses Bayes' rule to update beliefs, she tends to become overconfident regarding which task is appropriate for her. If tasks are equally informative about ability, her task choice is also overconfident. If the ambitious task is more informative about ability, she might initially display underconfidence in behavior, and, if she is disappointed by her performance, later become too ambitious. People with ego utility prefer to acquire free information in smaller pieces. Applications to employee motivation and other economic settings are discussed. (JEL: D83, D11)     

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

考虑消费者参照效应与策略行为的多产品动态定价

在考虑客户同时表现出参照依赖和策略行为的场景下，本文构建了一个垄断厂商两阶段的多产品动态定价模型。该模型将易逝品的销售分为正常价格阶段和促销价格阶段，每个阶段又分为多期。客户分为短视型和策略型，其中策略型客户会根据两个阶段价格的差异和获得商品的概率，决定是在第一阶段和等到第二阶段购买商品。基于随机动态规划的结构属性和超模理论，得到了两个阶段稳态价格的解析解，并且证明最优价格路径是单调且随着初始参照价格变化而变化。最后，通过对两种产品的数值实验，分析了各种参数对最优稳态价格的影响。结果显示，零售商可以采取多产品联合定价策略，即基于商店水平的定价策略，并通过调整核心产品的比重来获得更高的利润。