中国大龄未婚人口现象存在的原因及对策分析

本文从界定独身不婚这一婚姻行为入手，通过对中国大龄未婚人口现象的系统描述来认识其存在的特征和后果，在分析原因的基础上为解决中国大龄未婚人口问题提出相应的对策。笔者认为，中国大龄女性未婚人口现象的存在是和适婚男性非理性的“下娶”相联系的，而大龄男性成婚难则应该归因于适婚女青年理性的“高攀”和跨地区婚姻流动以及自身相对低下的社会经济条件     

中国男性婚姻挤压的态势与特征——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析

基于第七次全国人口普查数据并结合第四、五、六次全国人口普查数据,全面分析近年来中国男性婚姻挤压的态势与特征。研究表明,男性婚姻挤压现象及其后果已全面显现：2010～2020年全国婚龄人口性别比急剧升高,预计2036年将升至峰值116.13;与以往主要集中在社会经济发展较为落后的地区不同,当前经济发达且城镇化率较高地区的未婚男性过剩现象也逐步显现;男性婚姻挤压导致男女两性间初婚水平和模式的差异巨大,男性初婚概率较女性明显偏低,未婚男性成婚期望年数大幅增加;农村大龄未婚男性的规模始终较大、比例始终较高,城镇大龄未婚男性群体也日益凸显,2010～2020年45岁及以上城镇未婚男性由176.04万人增至387.77万人;大龄未婚男性的经济资源相对匮乏,对最低生活保障金的依赖加重,在老年阶段处于不健康状态的比例上升且独居比例较高。     

青年人口迁出对农村婚姻的影响

我国当前农村青年外流对地区婚姻问题和自身婚姻的影响主要表现在三个方面:一是对自身婚配的影响,一些大龄未婚农村外流青年择偶难;二是贫困地区女青年婚姻迁移导致当地男性青年成婚困难;三是农村已婚青年流动对婚姻稳定性产生影响。针对农村青年外流带来的婚姻问题,要关心大龄未婚打工仔和打工女的婚姻问题;要关注农村单亲家庭中的孩子;要关注婚姻迁移导致的贫困农村地区“弱势累积”问题。     

农村大龄未婚男性的婚姻困境:基于性别不平等视角的认识

大龄未婚男性的婚姻困境是在中国农村普婚制社会下长期存在的现象。文章利用全国性的专项调查、主流媒体报道和实地调查数据,从婚姻市场上的性别不平等视角来研究农村大龄男性的婚姻困境。宏观数据分析显示,用性别结构失衡来解释农村大龄男性的婚姻剥夺显得原发性因果关系不强和实证性不足,而简单地以贫困概括农村大龄男性婚姻困境的主因并没有充分考虑婚姻的本质和功能。基于性别不平等的理论视角和实证研究,认为婚姻市场上性别不平等对贫困男性婚姻困境的影响远比人口性别结构失衡的影响更为直接和重要,农村大龄男性的婚姻困境具有独立于个体内因的社会经济结构性的成因。     

解决农村未婚先育问题的思考

当前，在部分农村地区未婚先育现象呈上升趋势，相当一部分农村青年先生育再结婚，这不仅是对传统婚育制度的冲击，也是对现行婚姻生育政策的挑战。未婚先育现象在农村地区的存在，说明它在农村是有其产生与存在土壤的。对此，我们应深入研究其内在原因，了解其危害，将其与农村人口文化建设相结合，在思想上、精神上预防未婚先育现象的发生，引导广大农村青年树立正确的婚姻观、生育观和性爱观。     

婚姻挤压对农村流动男性养老意愿的影响——基于压力应对理论的分析

我国农村持续的性别失衡带来严重的男性婚姻挤压,对家庭养老造成不利影响。本文利用2009年福建省X市的农村流动人口调查数据,基于压力应对理论分析主客观婚姻挤压对农村流动男性养老意愿的影响。分析发现,在面对未来养老压力时,客观存在的婚姻挤压现状比主观遭受婚姻挤压更能构成养老压力源,大龄未婚男性拥有的养老资源少于已婚男性,因此大龄未婚男性更容易采用消极的退行方式应对养老,即不为养老做任何准备。     

高知大龄未婚女性的婚恋问题浅析

在男女性别比居高不下。男性人口远远高于女性人口的当今中国,却出现了高知大龄未婚女性婚恋难问题,这一奇特的社会现象引起人们广泛的关注和热议。本文认为高知大龄未婚女性婚恋问题主要源于“结构性剩余”,在对高知大龄未婚女性婚恋难问题已有的多角度理论研究回顾的基础上．主要从人口与经济的视角对高知大龄未婚女性“结构性剩余”现象的原因进行深入发掘。最后提出一些解决问题的举措。     

性别失衡背景下大龄未婚男性的商业性行为——基于中国农村地区的研究发现

基于2008年安徽省CH市JC区的调查数据,通过与同年龄段已婚男性的对比,对性别失衡背景下中国农村大龄未婚男性的商业性行为、安全套使用情况及其影响因素进行分析。研究发现,在中国性别失衡背景下,男性婚姻挤压导致大龄未婚男性难以获取正常、稳定的性行为,商业性行为作为一种有效的替代和弥补方式,其发生率在农村地区的大龄未婚男性当中存在显著升高的可能性;相对于较高的商业性行为发生率而言,大龄未婚男性的安全套使用率处于较低的水平,使得大龄未婚男性的商业性行为具有高风险特征。     

北京市大龄未婚问题的研究

本文根据１９９５年１％人口抽样调查原始数据对北京市大龄未婚问题进行了分析。与１９９０年相比，大龄未婚比例未见明显变化，但人数有所增加。目前在北京的大龄未婚者集中于同龄人口的两极：一极受教育程度高、职业背景优越；另一极社会地位偏低、各方面条件均较差。前者的大部分男性是自愿倾向晚婚而非选择困难；而前者中诸多女性和后者中的大部分男性才是真正意义上的择偶难的大龄未婚青年     

农村大龄未婚男性的代际经济支持研究

出生性别比持续偏高带来的女性缺失正日益加剧农村男性的婚姻挤压,而农村大龄男性不能结婚有可能对家庭养老功能产生重要影响。本文基于代际支持的投资回报理论,对2008年安徽乙县农村调查数据进行了定量分析。研究发现,儿子的婚姻状态与父母经济支持的获得有密切关系,投资回报理论能较好解释农村大龄未婚男性对父母经济支持较弱的现象;儿子的经济状况、父母的需求和父母对儿子的经济投资都会显著影响父母所获得的经济支持。研究有利于理解男性婚姻挤压对社会养老保障的影响,对及早制定有针对性的社会养老政策具有重要意义。     

社会网络视角下中国农村成年男性初婚风险的影响因素分析

在婚姻挤压背景下,男性拥有较多的社会网络资源是否意味着他们有更多结识异性和获得应急性经济支持的机会,从而增加了其初婚的概率?利用2008年西安交通大学人口与发展研究所在安徽X县调查的数据,从社会网络角度出发,采用事件史分析方法分析影响18~50岁农村男性初婚风险水平的因素。分析结果表明,当前农村男性的初婚年龄主要集中在22~27岁之间,27岁以上仍未结婚的男性,其成婚的概率急剧下降,成为婚姻市场的弱势群体;男性自身的特征和资源拥有状况,包括婚前社会网络、个人经济和非经济特征、家庭和社区因素,往往决定着个人的初婚风险水平,一般来说,男性自身特征和资源拥有状况越差,结婚的可能性越小。     

晚清东北地区人口婚姻状况探析

晚清时期,东北地区人口婚姻带有地域特色:已婚人口中女性婚配人口多于男性,婚龄普遍为早婚,且男小女大;未婚人口中,男性多于女性;男女终身不嫁的不婚人口很少,但男性较多;丧偶人口中,守寡女性占据绝大多数,鳏夫续娶较多,寡妇再嫁则很少;离婚人口中,有休妻、出妻等绝婚现象,但离婚人口很少。种种婚姻状况,主要是由于东北民族婚俗与陋习、东北移民人口的社会、经济状况决定的。     

Marriage Migration and Inequality in India, 1983–2008

Using National Sample Survey data from 1983 to 2007–08, we investigate rising rates of female marriage migration in India. We find little evidence to support the idea that marriage migration is a form of disguised economic migration by women. We hypothesise that it is instead a result of the changing patterns of marriage by socioeconomic status. Regression analysis indicates that poor families are increasingly more likely to have brides who in‐migrate, a finding that is robust across a sectoral disaggregation of marriage migration. We also find that urban inequality increases the likelihood of migration by intensifying class stratifications within urban India, increasing the need for poorer urban households to seek migrant brides. Marriage thus serves to reinforce rather than undermine larger patterns of class (and not just caste) inequality.     

Adolescent sexuality in Asia: new focus for population policy

As the age at marriage continues to rise in East and Southeast Asia, the fertility behavior of unmarried teenagers is receiving more attention from population policymakers. In addition to fertility reduction through family planning, Asian societies today consider population planning strategies in relation to national needs and social goals, including such matters as the population's growth rate, age structure, educational quality and skills. The number of single youth in Asia is growing much more rapidly than the total youth population. By the year 2010, for example, India is projected to have nearly 70 million single teenagers, aged 15-19, 188% more than in 1980. In many developing countries today, such as the Philippines and Korea, the rising age at marriage has combined with rapid urbanization, improved status for women, and more educational opportunity to alter both the behavioral norms of young people and the traditional means of social control over youth. Studies of contemporary adolescent sexuality have been conducted in 4 Asian countries. In the Philippines an overt independent youth homosexual culture was found to exist in urban and to some extent rural areas. In Thailand research revealed little conservative resistance to family planning or to contraceptives for young unmarried people. Surveys in Taiwan indicate that behavior related to dating and choice of spouse has become more liberal, and a survey in Hong Kong revealed a higher level of premarital sex and use of prostitutes among Chinese men than expected. Population policy perspectives that need to be considered in these changing times include: 1) issues of access to family planning services by unmarried people below the legal age of maturity; 2) the development of social institutions, such as exist in Thailand and the Philippines, to guide adolescents' behavior; 3) more extensive study of adolescent sexuality; 4) establishment of the scope of family policy.     

婚姻挤压下农村流动人口的生育性别偏好——基于相对剥夺感视角的分析

中国的出生性别比偏高持续了三十年,婚姻挤压问题日益凸现,大规模的城乡人口流动则加剧了婚姻挤压问题及其社会影响的严重性与复杂性。受制度与非制度因素影响,农村流动人口在城市处于社会底层,易遭遇成婚困难、诱发相对剥夺感,可能对生育偏好产生重要影响。本文基于相对剥夺感视角,对2009年福建省X市外来农村流动人口调查数据的分析发现,婚姻挤压对农村流动人口的生育性别偏好的观念与行为均无显著影响,但相对剥夺感对生育性别偏好行为有显著影响。本研究有助于理解婚姻挤压与相对剥夺感对农村流动人口生育性别偏好演化的特殊作用,对国家调整生育政策、提高流动人口计生服务与管理、促进性别平等有一定借鉴意义。     

The Gendered Double Standard of Aging in US Marriage Markets

Using data on marriages collected in most US states between 1970 and 1988, we show that the older men are when they marry, the more years senior to their brides they are, whether it is a first or higher‐order marriage. While older men with more education marry down in age slightly more than less educated older men, the pattern of men marrying further down if they marry later holds strongly for all education groups. We consider several possible explanations for the tendency of men to marry further down in age if they are older at marriage. While we have no direct measure of physical attractiveness, we argue that the most compelling interpretation is that men, more than women, evaluate potential spouses on the basis of appearance. Because the prevailing standard of beauty favors young women, the older men are when they marry, the less they find women their own age attractive relative to younger women, leading them to marry further down in age if they are older at marriage. The consequence for women of men's preference for youth is more often that they remain unmarried than that they end up married to much older or less educated men.     

Gender in Marriage and Life Satisfaction Under Gender Imbalance in China: The Role of Intergenerational Support and SES

This study examined gender differences in the influence of marital status and marital quality on life satisfaction. The roles of intergenerational support and perceived socioeconomic status in the relationship between marriage and life satisfaction were also explored. The analysis was conducted with data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2006, representing 1,317 women and 1,152 men at least 25 years old. Chi-squared tests and logistic regression models were used in this process. Marriage, including marital status and relationship quality, has a protective function for life satisfaction. Marital status is more important for males, but marital quality is more important for females. The moderating roles of intergenerational support and perceived socioeconomic status are gender specific, perhaps due to norms that ascribe different roles to men and women in marriage.     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

我国男性的婚姻溢酬——基于内生选择性模型的分析

本文利用2008年的RUMiC（中印农民工调查数据）构造内生选择模型分析我国男性的婚姻溢酬。OI．S结果显示,控制个人特征和单位特征后,已婚男性的工资大于未婚男性的工资,婚姻溢酬为O．360。控制了婚姻选择性和妻子工作时间内生性后,使用Hekman两步法对此分析后发现婚姻溢酬更大一些,达到了O．523;这表明我国男性的婚姻溢酬不能简单归因于选择性假说,即已婚男性比未婚男性拥有更高的不可观测的生产力。进一步的研究发现,我国男性的婚姻溢酬可以用生产力假说中的家庭内部分工理论来解释,OLS和Heckman两步法的回归结果均表明,我国男性的婚姻溢酬随妻子的工作时间上升而下降。