基于互惠理论和前景理论的客户回报计划对客户忠诚影响

客户回报计划是指商家为鼓励客户与其保持长期关系的客户关系管理措施。现有的回报计划研究和实践主要依赖经济利益对客户的激励,未能充分实现预期的效果。本研究尝试基于行为经济学的互惠理论和前景理论设计新的客户回报计划,在经济驱动的基础上融入影响客户心理的手段。我们采用实验方法,参与实验的客户收到意外的礼物,而不是积分兑换,接受礼物的客户对银行的忠诚行为显著高于对照组的客户。进一步实验了不同赠送方式,在礼物总价值相同的条件下,分两次收到礼物的客户忠诚表现好于只收到一次礼物的客户。在此基础上提出了管理建议,丰富营销理论和工具,提高营销的效率和效益。     

带有回报计划的超市DCRM模型构建与实证分析

通过对忠诚计划模型的修正,以回报计划的回报率、回报极限、计划的时间范围及营销组合策略为主要变量,提出了带有回报计划的动态客户关系管理的模型。将该模型用于某超市的客户数据库中,发现模型的结果对这类客户是适用的,并给出了不同的客户状态空间对应的最优营销组合策略。结果表明:合适的回报计划可以促进客户的购买、提高公司的利润及缓解价格竞争。回报极限应该比客户的平均购买水平偏高,回报率应该与回报极限的改变方向一致,计划的时间范围应定在一年左右比较合适。对于累积购买水平较高的客户一般不邮寄商品信息。在回报计划的初期与末期不用打折,中期对那些购买次数很少的客户可以实行相应的降价策略。     

回报计划感知价值及其与计划忠诚和品牌忠诚的关系研究

目前,客户回报计划已成为一种重要的关系营销手段,相关问题也开始引起学术界的关注。本文研究了回报计划的不同形式是如何影响客户对计划的感知价值的,同时回报计划的感知价值又是如何影响计划忠诚和品牌忠诚的,并且在研究的过程中考虑了产品或服务对客户涉入度的调节作用。结果显示,仅回报类型对计划感知价值的影响受到涉入度的调节,强涉入度下直接回报优于间接回报;而回报时间和回报额度对计划感知价值的影响不受涉入度的调节,延迟回报和差额回报优于立即回报和等额回报。同时,在强涉入度情况下,回报计划的感知价值通过直接和间接两务途径影响品牌忠诚;而在低涉入度争件下,回报计划感知价值对品牌忠诚没有直接影响,而是通过计划忠诚间接影响品牌忠诚。     

关系营销范式下营销努力对客户行为的影响研究

关系营销范式日益得到理论界和实业界的认可,但却很少有研究着眼于不同关系营销努力能否对衡量关系营销绩效的不同客户行为产生一致的影响作用.本文重点研究了客户关系感知与关系营销手段--回报计划对客户重复购买行为与客户份额增加所产生的不同影响.结果显示,不同的关系营销努力对客户重复购买行为与客户份额增加所产生的影响是不一致的,情感承诺与回报计划有助于促进客户的重复购买,而客户满意感与价格公平感更容易影响客户份额的增加.     

基于预算限制和客户挽留价值最大化的电信客户流失挽留研究

在分析电信行业中挽留激励效应、自然流失效应和口碑传播效应对客户保持率的动力学机理的基础上,得到客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径;接着提出了使用挽留激励系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体描述这3种效应的作用力。然后基于客户保持率的演进路径推导出了客户挽留周期模型和客户挽留价值模型。最后建立了2种不同类型的客户挽留模型:基于挽留激励效应建立了单个客户挽留费用模型,并推导出了单个客户挽留费用的有效范围、挽留激励的高效率区域和低效率区域;基于定义的挽留收益函数和挽留边际收益函数建立了一对一客户挽留策略模型,并推导出了在挽留预算限制条件下的客户挽留顺序选择原则。实验结果表明,所提出的电信客户挽留方法是可行且有效的。     

基于客户价值的客户序位评价研究

客户关系管理是目前管理研究的热点,企业对客户价值的序位评价是其基础问题之一,其有效性是实施客户关系管理的基础.基于价值的客户序位评价是根据客户的价值大小来定位客户.本文首先在现有的客户价值评价体系的基础上结合客户生命周期理论设计了一种新的客户价值评价指标体系,从客户的生命周期阶段和客户发展潜力两个方面来评价客户价值.然后根据该指标体系的指标特性,选择神经网络作为评价方法.最后根据客户价值评价结果进行客户序位,并对每个类别的客户特征及其相应的营销策略进行了分析.     

基于竞争对手反击的电信客户流失挽留研究

首先分析了挽留激励、竞争反击、自然衰减和口碑传播这4种效应对客户保持率产生影响的动力学模型,并得到了客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径;接着定义了挽留激励系数、竞争反击系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体刻画这4种效应的作用力.然后基于客户保持率的演进路径得到了客户挽留周期计算模型,分别基于竞争对手反击效应存在性的不同情况建立了3类客户挽留价值计算模型.最后基于客户挽留价值和挽留成本建立了客户流失挽留评估模型,基于挽留重要性指标建立了客户挽留顺序选择模型.实验结果表明所提出的客户流失挽留方法是可行且有效的.     

基于改进GMDH的目标客户选择模型研究

近年来,目标客户选择建模成为客户关系管理领域的研究热点。为了解决用于目标客户选择建模的训练样本类别分布高度不平衡的问题,本文首先提出了混合抽样方法。进一步地,将数据分组处理(GMDH)神经元网络引入到客户特征选择中,提出新的特征选择算法Log-GMDH。该算法分别从传递函数的选择和新的外准则的构建两个方面对传统GMDH网络模型进行了改进。最后,将提出的混合抽样、Log-GMDH和Logistic回归分类算法相结合,构建目标客户选择模型LogGMDH-Logistic。在CoIL2000预测竞赛中某汽车保险公司的目标客户选择数据集上进行实证分析,结果表明,LogGMDH-Logistic模型不仅在性能上优于已有的一些目标客户选择模型,而且具有很好的可解释性。     

“通缉客户”——一种逆向寻找目标市场的营销模式

（一）“通缉客户”是逆向寻求目标市场的有效方法“通缉客户＂是进行需求规划的、逆向的、反传统的寻找目标市场的营销模式。需求规划 ,是指企业根据预测和分析 ,制定生产和营销计划来满足活动客户需要的系统活动 ,是企业营销的重要职能。良好的需求规划是成功满足客户需求的关键 ,也是企业发现市场机会的有利保证。《企业再造》的作者迈克尔·哈默最近指出：“在你的四壁之内能取得的利益是有限的。下一轮巨大的机遇就在于撤除你和你的用户之间、以及你和你的供应商之间的围墙。”未来的成功企业只有两种：一种是品牌驱动 ,另一种是找到客…     

基于AHP与聚类分析的信用卡客户细分

近年来,优质客户资源的争夺已成为信用卡业务竞争的焦点。因此,如何通过有效的客户细分,全面掌握客户信息,了解客户的用卡特征,有的放矢进行营销,成为信用卡运营商研究的关键问题。本文首先用AHP法对个人信用指标体系的各指标进行分析,确定指标体系中各指标的重要程度,并根据一定精确度要求对指标进行精简;然后,运用Clementine软件对经过指标精简后的数据进行聚类,并对每个子类中的客户特点进行分析,并提出了相应的营销策略。     

客户空间行为的空间交互和离散选择模型研究

客户空间行为模型可以帮助解释空间竞争态势、提供管理建议、预测销售以及选址决策.在以往相关研究的基础上,深入研究空间结构对客户空间行为的影响,指出相对空间位置的重要作用,提出相对空间位置变量及度量方法.在离散选择模型的框架下,结合相对空间位置变量的客户空间行为模型更好地解释了空间结构对空间行为的影响,提高了参数空间无关性.在一个真实的城市空间中调查客户超市选择行为数据,并基于这些数据验证了模型有效性.     

Optimal Temporal Customer Purchasing Decisions Under Trade‐In Programs with Up‐Front Fees

To entice customers to purchase both current and new generation products over time, many firms offer different trade‐in programs including programs that require customers to pay an up‐front fee. To examine the effectiveness of the trade‐in programs, we develop a two‐period model in which a firm sells the first generation product in the first period and the second generation product in the second period; however, the firm offers a trade‐in program that customers can participate in when purchasing the first generation product in the first period. To participate, each customer has to pay a nonrefundable fee in the first period so that she has the option to trade‐in her first generation product and receive a prespecified trade‐in value to be used for the purchase of the second generation product in the second period. To capture market heterogeneity and market uncertainty, we examine the case when the valuation of the first generation product varies among customers and the valuation of the second generation product is uncertain a priori. By analyzing a two‐period game, we determine the optimal purchasing behavior of each rational customer, and we show that the firm is always better off by offering its own trade‐in programs. Also, our numerical analysis reveals that trade‐in programs can benefit the firm significantly especially when (i) the residual value of the first generation product is high; (ii) the expected incremental value of the second generation product is high; or (iii) the valuation of the second generation product is highly uncertain.     

社交媒体中企业分享奖励营销模式研究

社交媒体中用户之间的分享行为具有潜在的经济价值,因此越来越多的企业通过分享奖励模式开展社会化营销,以挖掘新用户。本文构建“嵌套”Stackelberg博弈模型,研究了企业的最优分享奖励机制设计,并对比分析了分享奖励营销模式与传统大众广告营销模式。主要研究发现,企业的最优奖励策略包括单独奖励新用户、单独奖励分享者以及同时奖励分享者和新用户三种。不同策略的选择受到价格以及用户之间社交关系的影响。当用户之间的社交关系较弱时,由打折奖励引起用户购买概率增加的“折扣作用”强于由分享奖励金引起的“推荐作用”,企业适合采用单独奖励新用户策略;当用户之间的社交关系较强时,“推荐作用”强于“折扣作用”,企业适合采用单独奖励分享者策略。同时,企业选择大众广告营销模式或者分享奖励模式受到市场渗透率和用户之间社交关系两个主要因素的影响。     

消费者采用3G移动通讯的影响因素研究——对重庆移动通讯市场的实证研究

自从中国发放3G牌照后,虽然新一代3G通讯在技术上拥有巨大的优势,但市场渗透率却不尽如人意。针对此问题本文采用选择型联合分析法,从消费者面对不同通讯服务的选择行为中,获得了消费者对于通讯产品属性的效用系数。结果表明:目前3G通讯的技术优势并没有对消费者起到应有的作用,而通话费、上网费及高购机成本是阻碍采用3G的关键因素,中国移动在3G背景下依然拥有较强的品牌效用,同时消费者对移动增值服务具有选择性。本文研究结论对于认知消费者在通讯市场的行为和帮助移动运营商更有效制定营销政策的实践具有重要意义。     

Optimal responses to stockouts: Lateral transshipment versus emergency order policies

In the retail industry, stockouts have a significant effect on a firm׳s profitability. When a stockout takes place, retailers often apply one of two strategies to resolve the issue – placing an emergency order with their supplier or arranging a lateral transshipment with a nearby partner store. Choosing the optimal response to a stockout is complicated by customers׳ spontaneous reactions. Customers who find that a product is out of stock may choose to give up on the purchase, to wait for delivery (through emergency order or lateral transshipment), or go to a partner store to search for the product on their own. In this study, under a single-period setting with two retail stores, we investigate the optimal inventory decisions under each strategy, and conduct a comparison between lateral transshipment and emergency order options. We also analyze the effects of the customer requesting rate and switching rate on the optimal inventory decision. Through numerical analysis, the two strategies are compared in terms of inventory levels and profitability. The results suggest that in addition to the cost associated with each of these strategies, the customers׳ behavior in response to a stockout has a significant effect on the optimal decision. The emergency order strategy is a better option when more customers request deliveries or when more customers switch to another store. Extending this analysis, we also examine the combined strategy when an emergency order is placed after a transshipment fails to fulfill unmet demands, and explore the circumstances under which this strategy provides the highest additional profit for the stores. Finally, we also find that a higher requesting rate does not necessarily increase profits, particularly when there is a high customer switching rate, because requesting emergency order or transshipment reduces switching demand.     

基于制造商网络渠道选择的双渠道供应链定价 与服务决策研究

本文考虑由线下零售商实体销售与制造商网络销售构成的网络直销,以及由线下零售商实体销售与线上零售商网络销售构成的网络分销两种制造商双渠道模式,研究“搭便车”行为下制造商模式选择和供应链最优定价与服务决策。研究发现:制造商的渠道选择策略与“搭便车”行为程度、消费者偏好网络渠道程度、价格敏感系数等有关。尤其当消费者受到的服务且对价格的敏感性相同时,制造商会选择网络直销双渠道模式。进一步分析消费者“搭便车”行为和网络渠道偏好对制造商渠道选择和定价决策影响发现,制造商在消费者偏好网络渠道程度比较低时应选择网络分销双渠道模式,而当消费者网络渠道偏好和“搭便车”行为程度都比较高时,制造商应选择网络直销双渠道模式。消费者网络渠道偏好或“搭便车”行为程度越大,两种模式下批发价格应设置的更低。网络直销渠道模式下“搭便车”行为程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置的更低,而消费者网络渠道偏好程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置得更高。     

考虑策略型消费者行为的零售商订货及忠诚计划联合决策研究

顾客忠诚计划是零售商的重要销售策略之一. 本文针对两期折扣问题中零售商的订货和积分回馈计划投入的联合决策问题,基于完全理性假设,并结合问题的实际情况,考虑了全价期单期以及全价期和折扣期两期的积分回馈计划,构建了基于这两种积分回馈计划下的策略型消费者决策模型. 分析了不同积分回馈计划对策略型消费者行为的影响,进而讨论了零售商在不同决策下的收益情况,探索了零售商订货和积分回馈计划联合决策的制定. 研究发现：(1)积分回馈计划会对策略型消费者行为产生影响,从而影响零售商的决策和收益;(2)订货和忠诚计划制定的联合决策有利于零售商提高收益;(3)对于单位成本低的商品,面向全价期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大;(4)对于商品价值与实际价格差异较小的商品,积分回馈计划对最优收益的提升作用较大. 具体而言,如果商品单位成本小于等于折扣价,则面向全价期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大,反之,则面向全价期和折扣期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大.     

The Impact of Revenue‐Maximizing Priority Pricing on Customer Delay Costs

Speed is an increasingly important determinant of which suppliers will be given customers' business and is defined as the time between when an order is placed by the customer and when the product is delivered, or as the amount of time customers must wait before they receive their desired service. In either case, the speed a customer experiences can be enhanced by giving priority to that particular customer. Such a prioritization scheme will necessarily reduce the speed experienced by lower‐priority customers, but this can lead to a better outcome when different customers place different values on speed. We model a single resource (e.g., a manufacturer) that processes jobs from customers who have heterogeneous waiting costs. We analyze the price that maximizes priority revenue for the resource owner (i.e., supplier, manufacturer) under different assumptions regarding customer behavior. We discover that a revenue‐maximizing supplier facing self‐interested customers (i.e., those that independently minimize their own expected costs) charges a price that also minimizes the expected total delay costs across all customers and that this outcome does not result when customers coordinate to submit priority orders at a level that seeks to minimize their aggregate costs of priority fees and delays. Thus, the customers are better off collectively (as is the supplier) when the supplier and customers act independently in their own best interests. Finally, as the number of priority classes increases, both the priority revenues and the overall customer delay costs improve, but at a decreasing rate.     

考虑消费者预期后悔的价格歧视策略研究

基于行为的价格歧视（BPD）受到越来越多的关注，企业为了更好地服务于各细分市场，需要更细致的考虑消费者事前估值的不确定性，以及因此出现的消费者预期后悔。本文在双寡头垄断市场中建立模型，探讨消费者预期后悔对企业动态价格竞争和利润的影响。研究结果表明，消费者预期后悔会对自身购买决策产生显著影响；当高值实现概率相对较低，高低值差异大且切换后悔的厌恶较小或者重复后悔的厌恶较大时，企业奖励重复购买的客户，否则奖励切换者；预期后悔对企业的利润既可以有正面的影响也可以有负面的影响。     

On the Benefits of Assortment‐Based Cooperation Among Independent Producers

Motivated by the challenges small‐ to medium‐size companies face in export‐oriented industries, we consider a competitive market for a set of substitutable products. Depending on the assortment of the firms and the substitution behavior of the customer, either a product is sold to the customer or the sale is lost. We consider the cooperation of independent producers that offer a combined set of products to their customers. Producers use discounted price contracts to manage the exchange of products among themselves. We propose an analytical model that enables us to determine the characteristics of firms and their products that would facilitate a beneficial cooperation. We conclude that a cooperation between symmetric single‐product firms is always beneficial, whereas threshold‐type criteria should be satisfied so that assortment‐based cooperation is beneficial for asymmetric firms. We also show that commonality in product assortments of cooperating firms has adverse effects on the benefit from cooperation. For the most general problem setting, we propose a method to determine the set of firms that should cooperate and set the parameters of the contract among the members of cooperation in such a way that each member of the cooperation is better off. We use a numerical study to draw insights on the conditions for which our cooperation scheme is beneficial in the most general problem setting.