北京市生育政策调整对出生人口规模的影响

在全面分析北京市户籍人口生育水平、育龄妇女孩次结构、独生子女比例、婚配模式、人口迁移和生育意愿的基础上,本文分析了北京生育政策调整对出生人口规模产生的影响。结果表明户籍人口放开单独对北京新增出生人口的影响非常小,2020年以前每年对北京市户籍人口出生规模的影响在1万-2万人左右,远远低于迁入人口规模的影响。     

低生育水平对东北三省人口发展的影响

我国提出计划生育政策和稳定低生育水平的战略决策有其深刻的历史背景,是基于我国实际具体国情的理性判断。在30多年的计划生育和人口控制政策的实施过程中,我国人口的生育水平持续下降,完成了人口转变过程,已经进入低生育、低增长阶段。在肯定稳定低生育水平对于我国东北三省人口发展具有重要意义的同时,通过分析低生育水平可能带来的一些负面影响,以统筹解决我国东北三省人口问题为根本目的,进而促进我国东北三省社会经济的健康、稳步、快速发展,实现人口、资源、环境、经济、社会的协调、可持续发展,构建以人为本的和谐社会。     

浙江省低生育率问题与对策研究

长期以来,政府、社会和学术界对生育率的关注多从控制生育的角度。随着我省生育转变的实现,自愿放弃生育人口日益增多,导致我省低生育率长期持续,人口长期均衡发展问题凸现。本文基于人口长期均衡发展视角,深入分析我省持续低生育率问题、成因,以及由此引起严重的人口失衡,着重关注过去被忽视的自愿放弃生育人群,并把它与我省持续低生育率相联系,在此基础上,提出未来完善生育政策促进我省人口长期均衡发展的对策建议。     

北京城市独生子女生育意愿研究

本文利用2002年"北京市城乡独生子女生育意愿调查"和2006年"北京城市独生子女和双独家庭生育意愿调查"的第一手资料,重点分析了在"独生子女政策"、"双独生育政策"的双重影响下,进入始育阶段的独生子女特别是双独家庭在生育数量、性别偏好和生育时间方面的意愿选择,探讨独生子女生育观念的变化、可能的行为选择对未来北京市人口变动产生的影响和政策意义。     

国家“二孩政策”对甘肃省人口发展的影响分析

全面放开二孩生育的政策,是党的十八届五中全会《建议》做出的最为重要、最为醒目的宏观决策。二孩政策的出台引起了全社会各方面的热议,对人口增长压力、赡养负担、劳动力供给和人口红利等主要人口发展问题,都提出了新的挑战。本文结合甘肃省的实际情况,就二孩政策对甘肃省的人口发展的影响进行了系统分析,提出了独特的看法。     

制度人口学重大问题研究述评

关注制度与人口行为的关系研究是制度人口学的重要特征,而针对与制度和政策有关的现代和未来人口问题,努力为改进这些制度和政策提出建议是制度人口学研究者价值体现的最重要方式。从2004年开始,国内不少人口学者开始投身“十一五”中国人口发展战略的研究之中。经过一年多的协作攻关,全国多家主要人口研究机构就自己所承担的题目拿出了论证报告,对全国“十一五”社会和经济发展纲要的形成做出了贡献。近期,与制度人口学关系关注的重大问题探讨主要体现在以下几个方面:一、中国生育控制政策的调整研究中国的生育控制政策已经实行了20余年。…     

论“四结合”的人口与计划生育政策体系

本文从多种角度分析了21世纪浙江省的人口战略目标，提出了应实行“一箭多雕”的人口与计划生育政策体系，分析了分婚配模式的“一代独生子女”的生育政策；婚配模式与妇女文化程度“双结合”的一代独生子女政策；普遍强化优生与分婚配模式、分受教育程度“三结合”的生育政策；有选择的大进大出的人口迁移政策与普遍强化优生、分婚配模式、分受教育程度“四结合”的人口与计划生育政策体系。最后，作者认为，小口径的一代独生子女政策，是实施其他人口与计划生育政策的基础，是实现浙江多种战略目标的必要条件，应作为浙江的首选政策。     

浙江省的新人口问题及其解决

浙江省的新人口问题及其解决顾耀德人口是社会的主体，人口状况的合理与否直接关系到社会能否全面发展。近来年，随着浙江省生育水平的急剧下降，人口与社会经济开始协调发展，但是在人口自身发展方面出现一些不容忽视的新情况。为此，有必要对生育政策进行一定的调整，以...     

中国出生人口性别比偏高问题探析

中国出生人口性别比偏高的后果为冲击社会的和谐稳定、加大社会养老的压力,严重影响人口生产,威胁人类可持续发展;主要原因有传统生育文化的影响、社会保障体系不健全、胎儿性别鉴定技术的滥用计划生育政策执行不力监管不严;解决问题的对策有:培育新型生育文化,引导人们树立正确的生育观念、适当调整计划生育政策、加快经济发展,完善社会保障体系、加强监管,严格执法,打击非法选择胎儿性别行为等四个方面。     

贵州少数民族人口增长问题及对策探讨

经济和社会的发展以及生育政策的相对宽松,使得贵州少数民族人口呈现持续快速增长态势,成为该地区资源、生态环境、教育和经济可持续发展循环链中的薄弱一环,严重影响其他链条的发展。需要正确对待少数民族人口增长的问题,有区别、有步骤地完善人口控制政策,完善少数民族社会保障政策,创新计生工作机制。     

人口老龄化与养老保障政策应对研究——基于多元社会政策建构视野

人口老龄化趋势是我国人口结构转变的一个突出现象。人口老龄化问题的突现,势必对养老保障压力提出了新的挑战,同时也会影响国家对养老政策的调整。本文基于＂人口年龄结构—国民经济因素—社会因素—养老政策＂综合分析模型,提出了养老保障政策分析的框架。本文以人口结构转变为切入点,描述了人口老龄化趋势,以及由此引发的国家系统养老保障以及公民社会养老保障挑战。为应对这些挑战,本文基于综合分析模型和现代国家治理结构特点,提出了相应的应对策略。本文认为,只有整体性福利制度构建,才能确保在国民经济发展、人口老龄化趋势与社会稳定之间取得动态平衡。     

Family planning programs and fertility decline

A recently completed World Bank statistical study of family planning in 63 developing countries indicated that countries which experienced a large decline in birth rates between 1960-1977 were more likely to have a family planning program, an official population policy aimed at decreasing the birth rate, and a relatively high level of development than countries which experienced smaller or no decline in birth rates. The 65 countries represented 95% of the population of the developing world. Birth rate declines of 10% or more between 1960-1977 were experienced by: 1) 10 of the 26 countries which had a family planning program and a policy aimed at reducing the birth rate; 2) 6 of the 19 countries which had a family planning program but lacked clearly defined population objectives; and 3) 2 of the 18 countries without any population policy or program. Furthermore, the implementation of a family planning program and the adoption of a population policy were directly related to the development level of the country. This finding suggested that countries need to reach a certain level of development before they have the capacity to develop population programs and policies. When a country is sufficiently advanced to collect population data, awareness of population problems increases and they are more likely to adopt a population policy. In addition, government efficiency increases as development proceeds and governments must have a certain level of efficiency before they can implement effective programs.     

Learning from Japanese Experience in Aged Care Policy

Like Singapore, Japan is projected to age rapidly. Japan is the first country in the world where more than 20% of the total population is over 65. Even as Japan adapts from western Europe and America where population ageing is more advanced up till now, it has been pioneering its own aged care policy, given the differences in sociocultural and political contexts. Of particular interest is its introduction of long-term care insurance and its effectiveness in meeting the needs of the long-term care of the aged and their family caregivers. In this article I seek to compare and contrast Singapore and Japan in terms of their demographic changes leading to rapid ageing, and their respective policy and program responses to a rapidly ageing population, drawing lessons from the Japanese experience.     

女性职业生涯发展的制约因素与建议

女性约占我国总人口的一半,我国女性职业生涯发展越来越受到社会的关注。影响女性职业发展的因素是多方面的,与性别相关的社会传统文化的影响,市场经济体制下的公共政策对妇女职业权利保障的弱化,具有示范性的成功职业女性形象稀少等都是障碍性的因素。促进女性职业生涯的发展,是当前我国人力资源开发中的一个重要课题。     

The construction of the medical insurance system in the Republic of Korea, 1963–1989

The task of bringing a whole population into medical insurance coverage is a challenging one for a country's health policy makers. The outcomes of health policy differ significantly from one country to another depending on each state's socio-economic and political background. Health policy in Korea is to a great extent incremental in character and the consequence of a variety of causal events. This is why it has been difficult to apply the established social welfare theories to the Korean case. In any event, the Korean national medical insurance system, constructed between 1963 and 1989, reveals some similarity to that in Japan, i.e., compartmentalization of financial and administrative units as well as inequality in contributions and benefits. The system also reflects Korea's traditional Confucian value which emphasizes mutual dependence between family members.     

Sickness and disability policies: Reform paths in OECD countries between 1990 and 2014

We analysed sickness and disability policies for the working‐age population in a number of OECD countries, between the years 1990 and 2014. Existing evidence suggests that there has been a broad shift in focus from passive income maintenance to employment incentives and reintegration policies. We have updated detailed policy scores provided by the OECD to estimate model‐based country clusters. Our results indicate that countries have pursued different types of reforms consisting of a combination of integration and compensation measures. The reforms of recent decades have led to the emergence of a distinct cluster of Northern and Continental European countries characterised by a combination of strong employment‐oriented policies and comparatively high social protection levels. An analysis of recent reforms shows a continued expansion of measures that foster employment as well as instances of retrenchment in the compensation dimension. Diversity of policy settings across country groups, however, remains substantial.     

Private Health Insurance in Chile: Basic or Complementary Insurance for Outpatient Services?

A private health insurance system has existed in Chile since 1981 and has covered over a quarter of the population of that country since 1995. This article examines that system in economic terms. The analysis focuses on the incentive effects of state regulations governing the formulation of private health insurance policies and the relationship with the state health service. The imbalance in policy termination rights and the unrestricted possibility to return to the state system emerge as central functional elements. The article postulates that the private system represents, for many, not a full coverage scheme but an additional policy for outpatient benefits, regardless of its officially stated aims.     

Economic crisis and social policy reform in Korea

The economic crisis that broke out in Korea in December 1997 has had a chilling impact on social development in the country. Today unemployment is the highest that Korea has experienced in the past thirty years. This paper aims to examine the impact of the economic crisis on social development and the role of public policy to mitigate the problems caused by the crisis. The economic crisis has hit vulnerable groups harder, increased the proportion of part-time and daily workers, and reversed the trend of steady improvement of income distribution. The economic crisis along with the trend of aging population, globalization, and competition calls for an expanded role of social policy, which the Korean government has neglected for a long time. The main targets of social policy reform in Korea include the expansion of government programs and safety nets for the unemployed and redesigning the national pension and health insurance scheme to provide adequate income security as well as to improve the system sustainability.     

东道国FDI政策国际比较研究

分析东道国政策对FDI产生的影响是FDI理论的最新研究方向。在实践上,美国对FDI实行的国民待遇原则,韩国FDI政策从限制到促进的转变,印度FDI政策的封闭特征是三国FDI存量、流量及质量不同的主要原因。对FDI政策的理论研究和实践比较表明,世界各国的FDI政策都存在不同程度的规制与鼓励交替变迁过程,但变化的总趋势是向投资自由化方向发展。对我国的启示是,在正确把握规制与自由化的关系基础上,保持政策的动态连续性。     

Causes and impacts of the mis-representation of agricultural policy—The case of food supply security payments in Switzerland

Although the supply situation of the Swiss population is sufficient in terms of food security, contributions to security of food supply have been made since 2014 as part of the country’s current agricultural policy. Amounting to around CHF 1.17 billion, such contributions account for more than a third of Switzerland’s total direct payments budget. The effectiveness and the efficiency of this policy in terms of both calorie production and income transfer were analysed. With the help of an agent-based model approach, the extent to which the achievement of targets is guaranteed in the long term was examined. Possible gains in efficiency become visible alongside a stepwise reduction in the levels of the contributions. If the current policy is continued, Switzerland will barely achieve its actual operationalised calorie production targets. A focus on demand during times of supply shortages and a stronger focus on maintaining production factors could release the resources necessary to close existing gaps in relation to meeting targets. With an income ratio of about 0.3, the payments have a high income transfer effect and, therefore, make a major contribution to securing agricultural income. This fact is not evident in either the formulation of targets or the labelling of the policy. The present study contributes to the discussion concerning the possible reasons and likely impacts for the mislabelling of this policy measure.