Heteroscedastic log-exponentiated Weibull regression model

We introduce a new class of heteroscedastic log-exponentiated Weibull (LEW) regression models. The class of regression models can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters with censored data as well as influence diagnostics for the new regression model is investigated. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the heteroscedastic LEW regression model. The normal curvatures for studying local influence are derived under various perturbation schemes. An empirical application to a real data set is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the new class of heteroscedastic regression models.     

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions for classifying three-way data

Matrix-variate distributions represent a natural way for modeling random matrices. Realizations from random matrices are generated by the simultaneous observation of variables in different situations or locations, and are commonly arranged in three-way data structures. Among the matrix-variate distributions, the matrix normal density plays the same pivotal role as the multivariate normal distribution in the family of multivariate distributions. In this work we define and explore finite mixtures of matrix normals. An EM algorithm for the model estimation is developed and some useful properties are demonstrated. We finally show that the proposed mixture model can be a powerful tool for classifying three-way data both in supervised and unsupervised problems. A simulation study and some real examples are presented.     

The heteroscedastic odd log-logistic generalized gamma regression model for censored data

We propose a four-parameter extended generalized gamma model, which includes as special cases some important distributions and it is very useful for modeling lifetime data. A advantage is that it can represent the error distribution for a new heteroscedastic log-odd log-logistic generalized gamma regression model. The proposed heteroscedastic regression model can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data since it includes as special models several widely-known regression models. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed. Overall, the new regression model is very useful to the analysis of real data.     

A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the uncertain functional constraint using screened scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions

This paper considers a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of regression models using a class of Gaussian scale mixtures. This class provides a robust alternative to the common use of the Gaussian distribution as a prior distribution in particular for estimating the regression function subject to uncertainty about the constraint. For this purpose, we use a family of rectangular screened multivariate scale mixtures of Gaussian distribution as a prior for the regression function, which is flexible enough to reflect the degrees of uncertainty about the functional constraint. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the constrained regression function with uncertainty on the basis of three stages of a prior hierarchy with Gaussian scale mixtures, referred to as a hierarchical screened scale mixture of Gaussian regression models (HSMGRM). We describe distributional properties of HSMGRM and an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, and apply the proposed model to real applications with constrained regression models subject to uncertainty.     

Modelling stochastic order in the analysis of receiver operating characteristic data: Bayesian non-parametric approaches

Summary.  The evaluation of the performance of a continuous diagnostic measure is a commonly encountered task in medical research. We develop Bayesian non-parametric models that use Dirichlet process mixtures and mixtures of Polya trees for the analysis of continuous serologic data. The modelling approach differs from traditional approaches to the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curve data in that it incorporates a stochastic ordering constraint for the distributions of serologic values for the infected and non-infected populations. Biologically such a constraint is virtually always feasible because serologic values from infected individuals tend to be higher than those for non-infected individuals. The models proposed provide data-driven inferences for the infected and non-infected population distributions, and for the receiver operating characteristic curve and corresponding area under the curve. We illustrate and compare the predictive performance of the Dirichlet process mixture and mixture of Polya trees approaches by using serologic data for Johne's disease in dairy cattle.     

Statistical Inference and Applications of Mixture of Varying Coefficient Models

In this paper, we consider a new mixture of varying coefficient models, in which each mixture component follows a varying coefficient model and the mixing proportions and dispersion parameters are also allowed to be unknown smooth functions. We systematically study the identifiability, estimation and inference for the new mixture model. The proposed new mixture model is rather general, encompassing many mixture models as its special cases such as mixtures of linear regression models, mixtures of generalized linear models, mixtures of partially linear models and mixtures of generalized additive models, some of which are new mixture models by themselves and have not been investigated before. The new mixture of varying coefficient model is shown to be identifiable under mild conditions. We develop a local likelihood procedure and a modified expectation–maximization algorithm for the estimation of the unknown non‐parametric functions. Asymptotic normality is established for the proposed estimator. A generalized likelihood ratio test is further developed for testing whether some of the unknown functions are constants. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed generalized likelihood ratio test statistics and prove that the Wilks phenomenon holds. The proposed methodology is illustrated by Monte Carlo simulations and an analysis of a CO₂‐GDP data set.     

Estimating the prevalence of low-lumbar spine bone mineral density in older men with or at risk for HIV infection using normal mixture models

Bone mineral density decreases naturally as we age because existing bone tissue is reabsorbed by the body faster than new bone tissue is synthesized. When this occurs, bones lose calcium and other minerals. What is normal bone mineral density for men 50 years and older? Suitable diagnostic cutoff values for men are less well defined than for women. In this paper, we propose using normal mixture models to estimate the prevalence of low-lumbar spine bone mineral density in men 50 years and older with or at risk for human immunodeficiency virus infection when normal values of bone mineral density are not generally known. The Box–Cox power transformation is used to determine which transformation best suits normal mixture distributions. Parametric bootstrap tests are used to determine the number of mixture components and to determine whether the mixture components are homoscedastic or heteroscedastic.     

On Mixture Double Autoregressive Time Series Models

This article proposes a mixture double autoregressive model by introducing the flexibility of mixture models to the double autoregressive model, a novel conditional heteroscedastic model recently proposed in the literature. To make it more flexible, the mixing proportions are further assumed to be time varying, and probabilistic properties including strict stationarity and higher order moments are derived. Inference tools including the maximum likelihood estimation, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for searching the estimator and an information criterion for model selection are carefully studied for the logistic mixture double autoregressive model, which has two components and is encountered more frequently in practice. Monte Carlo experiments give further support to the new models, and the analysis of an empirical example is also reported.     

Testing homogeneity in a heteroscedastic contaminated normal mixture

Large-scale simultaneous hypothesis testing appears in many areas. A well-known inference method is to control the false discovery rate. One popular approach is to model the z-scores derived from the individual t-tests and then use this model to control the false discovery rate. We propose a heteroscedastic contaminated normal mixture to describe the distribution of z-scores and design an EM-test for testing homogeneity in this class of mixture models. The proposed EM-test can be used to investigate whether a collection of z-scores has arisen from a single normal distribution or whether a heteroscedastic contaminated normal mixture is more appropriate. We show that the EM-test statistic has a shifted mixture of chi-squared limiting distribution. Simulation results show that the proposed testing procedure has accurate type-I error and significantly larger power than its competitors under a variety of model specifications. A real-data example is analysed to exemplify the application of the proposed method.     

Fitting probability distributions to economic growth: a maximum likelihood approach

The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) usually carries heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. In this study three important and significantly heteroscedastic GDP series are examined. A Normal, normal-mixture, normal-asymmetric Laplace distribution and a Student's t-Asymmetric Laplace (TAL) distribution mixture are considered for distributional fit comparison of GDP growth series after removing heteroscedasticity. The parameters of the distributions have been estimated using maximum likelihood method. Based on the results of different accuracy measures, goodness-of-fit tests and plots, we find out that in the case of asymmetric, heteroscedastic and highly leptokurtic data the TAL-distribution fits better than the alternatives. In the case of asymmetric, heteroscedastic but less leptokurtic data the NM fit is superior. Furthermore, a simulation study has been carried out to obtain standard errors for the estimated parameters. The results of this study might be used in e.g. density forecasting of GDP growth series or to compare different economies.     

Alternative covariance estimates in a replicated measurement error model with correlated,heteroscedastic errors

The article concerns covariance estimates in a replicated measurement error model with correlated, heteroscedastic errors. Freedman has conjectured that using more of the data will improve estimates of covariance matrices and result in a more efficient estimate of the coefficient of the regression model. The paper confirms the conjecture asymptotically for the case that all random variables are normally distributed, but the gain is not substantial.     

Mixtures of autoregressive-autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models: semi-parametric approach

We propose data generating structures which can be represented as a mixture of autoregressive-autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models. The switching between the states is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We investigate semi-parametric estimators for estimating the functions based on the quasi-maximum likelihood approach and provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity of the process. We also present an expectation–maximization algorithm for calculating the estimates numerically.     

Bayesian semiparametric modeling and inference with mixtures of?symmetric distributions

We propose a semiparametric modeling approach for mixtures of symmetric distributions. The mixture model is built from a common symmetric density with different components arising through different location parameters. This structure ensures identifiability for mixture components, which is a key feature of the model as it allows applications to settings where primary interest is inference for the subpopulations comprising the mixture. We focus on the two-component mixture setting and develop a Bayesian model using parametric priors for the location parameters and for the mixture proportion, and a nonparametric prior probability model, based on Dirichlet process mixtures, for the random symmetric density. We present an approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulation. The performance of the model is studied with a simulation experiment and through analysis of a rainfall precipitation data set as well as with data on eruptions of the Old Faithful geyser.     

Mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers for clustering high dimensional data

Mixtures of factor analyzers is a useful model-based clustering method which can avoid the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional clustering. However, this approach is sensitive to both diverse non-normalities of marginal variables and outliers, which are commonly observed in multivariate experiments. We propose mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers (MGCFA) for clustering high-dimensional clustering. This model has two advantages; (1) it allows different marginal distributions to facilitate fitting flexibility of the mixture model, (2) it can avoid the curse of dimensionality by embedding the factor-analytic structure in the component-correlation matrices of the mixture distribution.An EM algorithm is developed for the fitting of MGCFA. The proposed method is free of the curse of dimensionality and allows any parametric marginal distribution which fits best to the data. It is applied to both synthetic data and a microarray gene expression data for clustering and shows its better performance over several existing methods.     

Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model.     

Bayesian inference in a heteroscedastic replicated measurement error model using heavy-tailed distributions

We introduce a multivariate heteroscedastic measurement error model for replications under scale mixtures of normal distribution. The model can provide a robust analysis and can be viewed as a generalization of multiple linear regression from both model structure and distribution assumption. An efficient method based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is developed for parameter estimation. The deviance information criterion and the conditional predictive ordinates are used as model selection criteria. Simulation studies show robust inference behaviours of the model against both misspecification of distributions and outliers. We work out an illustrative example with a real data set on measurements of plant root decomposition.     

A profile likelihood method for normal mixture with unequal variance

It is well known that the normal mixture with unequal variance has unbounded likelihood and thus the corresponding global maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is undefined. One of the commonly used solutions is to put a constraint on the parameter space so that the likelihood is bounded and then one can run the EM algorithm on this constrained parameter space to find the constrained global MLE. However, choosing the constraint parameter is a difficult issue and in many cases different choices may give different constrained global MLE. In this article, we propose a profile log likelihood method and a graphical way to find the maximum interior mode. Based on our proposed method, we can also see how the constraint parameter, used in the constrained EM algorithm, affects the constrained global MLE. Using two simulation examples and a real data application, we demonstrate the success of our new method in solving the unboundness of the mixture likelihood and locating the maximum interior mode.     

Bayesian semiparametric modeling for stochastic precedence,with applications in epidemiology and survival analysis

We propose a prior probability model for two distributions that are ordered according to a stochastic precedence constraint, a weaker restriction than the more commonly utilized stochastic order constraint. The modeling approach is based on structured Dirichlet process mixtures of normal distributions. Full inference for functionals of the stochastic precedence constrained mixture distributions is obtained through a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulation method. A motivating application involves study of the discriminatory ability of continuous diagnostic tests in epidemiologic research. Here, stochastic precedence provides a natural restriction for the distributions of test scores corresponding to the non-infected and infected groups. Inference under the model is illustrated with data from a diagnostic test for Johne’s disease in dairy cattle. We also apply the methodology to the comparison of survival distributions associated with two distinct conditions, and illustrate with analysis of data on survival time after bone marrow transplantation for treatment of leukemia.     

Using conditional independence for parsimonious model-based Gaussian clustering

In the framework of model-based cluster analysis, finite mixtures of Gaussian components represent an important class of statistical models widely employed for dealing with quantitative variables. Within this class, we propose novel models in which constraints on the component-specific variance matrices allow us to define Gaussian parsimonious clustering models. Specifically, the proposed models are obtained by assuming that the variables can be partitioned into groups resulting to be conditionally independent within components, thus producing component-specific variance matrices with a block diagonal structure. This approach allows us to extend the methods for model-based cluster analysis and to make them more flexible and versatile. In this paper, Gaussian mixture models are studied under the above mentioned assumption. Identifiability conditions are proved and the model parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method by using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The Bayesian information criterion is proposed for selecting the partition of the variables into conditionally independent groups. The consistency of the use of this criterion is proved under regularity conditions. In order to examine and compare models with different partitions of the set of variables a hierarchical algorithm is suggested. A wide class of parsimonious Gaussian models is also presented by parameterizing the component-variance matrices according to their spectral decomposition. The effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology are illustrated with two examples based on real datasets.