Health Disorder of Climate Migrants in Khulna City: An Urban Slum Perspective

As the most vulnerable climatic region in the country, Khulna City is increasingly experiencing climate‐change‐induced urban problems. For instance, occupancy by climate migrants (delete the term “illegal migrant”), drainage congestion, water logging and reduced fresh water availability are all increasing problems. In the last decade, the population in the city increased by more than 20 per cent due to migration from nearby climate vulnerable districts. This study explores the health disorders of climate migrants occupying the urban slums and squats of the Khulna City area. This study found that these climate migrants settled in the urban slums and squats and, as such, they do not have access to urban amenities such as clean drinking water, hygiene services, and health facilities. This study noted that these displaced people are at increased risk of health issues from unhygienic and overcrowded living conditions and from water and sanitation problems. They often suffer from different waterborne diseases, under‐nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. This study suggests that there is a need for better planning, preparation and training in Bangladesh to which migrants move, including better training in health and related services on how to recognize and respond to health problems that may be slow to manifest. Education and training also need to be provided for the migrants themselves, to help them adapt culturally and to enhance their skills and potential for employment.     

A semiparametric approach for modelling multivariate nonlinear time series

In this article, a semiparametric time‐varying nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model is proposed to model nonlinear vector time series data. We consider a combination of parametric and nonparametric estimation approaches to estimate the NVAR function for both independent and dependent errors. We use the multivariate Taylor series expansion of the link function up to the second order which has a parametric framework as a representation of the nonlinear vector regression function. After the unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the obtained NVAR function is adjusted by a nonparametric diagonal matrix, where the proposed adjusted matrix is estimated by the nonparametric kernel estimator. The asymptotic consistency properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed semiparametric method. A real data example on short‐run interest rates and long‐run interest rates of United States Treasury securities is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 668–687; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

On E-Bayesian estimations for the cumulative hazard rate and mean residual life under generalized inverted exponential distribution and type-II censoring

Estimation of reliability and hazard rate is necessary in many applications. To this aim, different methods of estimation have been employed. Each method suffers from its own problems such as complexity of calculations, high risk and so on. Toward this end, this study employed a new method, E-Bayesian, for estimating the parametric functions of the Generalized Inverted Exponential distribution, which is one of the most noticeable distributions in lifetime studies. Relations are derived under a squared error loss function, type-II censoring and a conjugate prior. E-Bayesian estimations are obtained based on different priors of the hyperparameters to investigate the influence of different prior distributions on these estimations. The asymptotic behaviors of E-Bayesian estimations and relations among them have been investigated. Finally, a comparison among the maximum likelihood, Bayes and E-Bayesian estimations in different sample sizes are made, using a real data and the Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations show that the new presented method is more efficient than previous methods and is also easy to operate. Also, some comparisons among the results of Generalized Inverted Exponential distribution, Exponential distribution and Generalized Exponential distribution are provided.KEYWORDS: E-Bayesian estimation, generalized Inverted exponential distribution, type-II censoring, reliability, hazard rate, Monte Carlo simulation     

Some aspects of probability forecasting

The problems of assessing, comparing and combining probability forecasts for a binary events sequence are considered. A Gaussian threshold model (analytically of closed form) is introduced which allows generation of different probability forecast sequences valid for the same events. Chi - squared type test statistics, and also a marginal-conditional method are proposed for the assessment problem, and an asymptotic normality result is given. A graphical method is developed for the comparison problem, based upon decomposing arbitrary proper scoring rules into certain elementary scoring functions. The special role of the logarithmic scoring rule is examined in the context of Neyman - Pearson theory.     

Using Community-Based Participatory Research to Develop a Series of Core Competency Trainings Within a Developmental Disability Program

ABSTRACT

The New York State Talent Development Consortium at the Office for People with Developmental Disabilities (OPWDD) mandated developmental disability programs to train and evaluate direct service providers (DSPs) on seven core competencies. Utilizing community-based participatory research (CPBR) – an approach where clients, providers, and researchers share their knowledge and experience to identify study areas, formulate research questions, and use results to improve practice – a needs assessment was conducted by a New York-based developmental disability program to inform a training curriculum. Six focus groups were conducted from a purposive sample of 14 DSPs, and 19 managers/supervisors. Staff identified skills that corresponded with six out of seven competencies. Staff recommended hands-on training on: appropriate communication to deal with individuals with severe disabilities; professionalism; person-centered care; and education on terminology in behavioral health plans, medication, and mental health illnesses. Empowering DSPs through CBPR allows for a training curriculum catered toward staff needs, which may be well-received and utilized. The CBPR process employed may be beneficial to other agencies within the intellectual and developmental disabilities field, particularly at a time when the demand for nonlicensure providers such as DSPs is increasing, and there is a need to train them to render quality and effective services.     

中沙关系回顾与展望

中国和沙特政治制度不同,但两国发展积极友好的关系没有障碍。目前,沙特是中国在西亚和非洲最大的贸易伙伴,两国经贸合作前景广阔。同时,中沙双方均奉行独立自主的外交政策,拥有良好的政治关系,未来在区域组织和联合国等国际舞台上将有更广泛的合作领域。     

The purpose in life and academic behaviour of problem students in Bangladesh

This study was conducted with a group of 30 problem students who have been identified as irregular in class attendence, non-attentive to class lectures, creating disturbances in the class, etc. The problem students were compared with a group of equal number of normal students with respect to a Purpose in Life (PIL) scale. It was found that the problem students had lower scores (M=59.87, SD=18.09) as compared to those of normals (M=87.93, SD=0.68). These scores differed significantly (t=7.230). From this study it was concluded that the problem students demonstrated such activities due to a lack of purpose in their lives, although it was granted that some causality probably runs in both directions. It is hypothesised that counseling may be helpful in order to improve such behaviour.     

Role of the Members of Parliament in the Local Government of Bangladesh: Views and Perceptions of Grassroots in the Case of Upazila Administration

This paper intents to present the overall state of the local government and attention has been drowned particularly on the new commence Upazila in Bangladesh. Attempts have been made to address sensitive issue of debate whether the MPs should have the role in the local government or not as a public representative, whether a democratic Upazila Parishad in Bangladesh enhances its responsive role to the people who elected themselves and the consciousness of the mass people about the elected representatives and their functions and also the expectations of the local people to their elected representatives. The study carried out on the selected eight Upazilas from the prevailing seven divisions in Bangladesh.     

Mediated Partnerships

This paper studies partnerships that employ a mediator to improve their contractual ability. Intuitively, profitable deviations must be attributable, that is, there must be some group behavior such that an individual can be statistically identified as innocent, to provide incentives in partnerships. Mediated partnerships add value by effectively using different behavior to attribute different deviations. As a result, mediated partnerships are necessary to provide the right incentives in a wide range of economic environments.     

Estimates of fertility in Bangladesh

The attempt is made to estimate fertility levels in Bangladesh on the basis of data collected during the 1974 Census. In the 1st section attention is directed to providing an overall picture of the demographic situation in the country. Comparisons between the 1961 and 1974 data demonstrates that the 1974 Census data provide consistent results. Factors such as the degree of urbanization, literacy and economic participation rates--considered as indicators of development--all seem to show little progress during the intercensal period. The use of child/women ratios (CWRs) provides plausible evidence of the likelihood of a fertility decline. A decline in CWR values is small for "all areas" but a marked decline can be noted for "urban areas." The recorded mean number of children is less in 1974 than in 1961 for women under age 35 whereas for the older groups the 1974 Census shows higher mean numbers. The Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) data result for the total fertility rate of 6.58 is very close to that estimated for the 1974 Census--6.59. The reverse survival method also indicates that birthrates have been lower during the 1969-1974 period.