复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法

就复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法研究领域中如何实现复杂问题的表示、理解与求解等问题提出了看法 ,并针对复杂决策问题 ,建立了一个更加符合人类思维习惯的综合集成方法三层次理论框架 ,该框架由复杂问题定性简化处理层、复杂问题定量分析层及复杂问题定性定量综合集成求解层三个层次组成 ,同时研析了这三个组成层次的主要研究内容 .本文在运用综合集成方法解决问题过程 ,如何实现人机完美结合问题也作了有益的探索     

复杂决策问题形式化方法研究

在对决策问题复杂性原因研究的基础上,为复杂决策问题形式化下了准确的定义,并提 出复杂决策问题形式化方法的逻辑框架. 该框架由3 部分组成,即复杂决策问题表示层、复杂 决策问题结构化层和定量分析模型综合层. 针对各层次所要解决的关键问题,进行了深入 探讨.     

基于案例推理的决策问题求解研究

案例推理是人工智能的一种新求解方法。本文针对目前案例推理的不足 ,用新的观点审视了案例推理过程的一些重要步骤 ,包括复杂决策环境下案例的表示、案例的检索、案例的调整以及案例推理与其他推理方法的复合等问题 ,提出了不完全信息下的一种案例推理综合算法 ,为案例推理的实用化提供了理论依据。此外 ,在决策问题求解模型的基础上 ,讨论了在复杂决策背景下的基于案例的决策问题求解策略 ,给出了系统的框架 ,并将之用于医疗诊断。     

目标规划问题的解法研究——递归LU分解的高功率解法

系统设计与运行中许多复杂的决策问题,常可表示为多目标数学规划模型。在众多的求解方法中,目标规划法是最有力的工具之一。本文在过去反复迭代法中,导入递归 LU 求解的思想,推出了高速,计算误差影响小的目标规划算法,并给出了一个算例。     

Excel对经典存货管理模型的拓展与超越

Excel的“规划求解”工具是求解最优化决策问题的一个十分方便而有效的工具,本文以存货管理决策为例,向读者介绍了Excel规划求解工具的强大功能、及其在求解存货最优化问题时对经典存货管理模型的拓展和超越。     

线性二层决策问题的期望收益模型及算法

下层反应不唯一时 ,如何确定二层线性决策问题最优策略为一非确定型决策问题 .对此类问题 ,本文通过引入领导者对追随者合作程度的期望系数 ,提出期望收益模型 .利用双罚函数把该问题转换为一单层次优化问题 ,并提出一种求解问题的全局优化算法 .应用此模型分析二层线性问题可知 :对存在不确定性反应的二层决策问题 ,下层追随者与上层领导者的合作态度是领导者确定其最优策略的关键 ;对下层追随者而言 ,某些情况下 ,采取与领导者部分合作的态度对其自身收益的提高是合理的     

面对促销期的供应链生产销售微分对策研究

针对一个制造商与一个销售商在动态变化状态下的生产与定价决策问题,本文构建被动接受市场动态模型和主动投入努力动态模型,进行Stackelberg博弈和合作优化,再利用微分对策求解出生产量、批发价、零售价和投入努力值的最优策略.在促销期的一段时间内,以供应链利润最大化为前提,应用模型求解,企业可以动态选择最优生产量、定价及投入努力值,从而获得自身利润的增加并促进企业在整个供应链上实现可持续发展.     

基于方案偏好信息的灰色关联度决策模型

针对带有方案偏好信息的多指标决策问题,利用灰色关联度知识进行了研究.在定义四级标度法的基础上,给出方案偏好信息的客观值,并提出了基于灰色关联度、方案偏好信息值和客观信息熵的灰色关联度决策模型.利用非线性规划中的极值原理确定各指标权重的情况下,对决策模型进行求解和应用.应用结果表明该模型科学合理、易于实施.该法多属性决策问题提供了一种简单实用的可靠方法.     

基于悲观度的双边匹配决策问题研究

双边匹配决策问题一直是经济管理和计算几何等领域研究的热点和难点问题之一。针对双边主体偏好信息为序值的双边匹配决策问题,提出基于悲观度的新方法,给出具有序值形式信息的双边匹配决策问题的描述,引入能够反映功利型中介悲观度的满意度和支付的计算公式。在此基础上,考虑到匹配主体对之间的满意度和功利型中介的收益,构建求解双边匹配决策问题的多目标优化模型。运用基于隶属函数的加权和方法将多目标优化模型转化为单目标优化模型,运用Hungarian法进行求解获得双边匹配方案,通过算例说明给出方法的有效性。计算结果表明,悲观度取值不同,运用该方法获得的双边匹配方案也可能会不同,即双边匹配方案能反映不同功利型中介的不同风险偏好。     

随机环境中的生产作业计划问题

生产系统中通常会涉及各种不确定因素 ,如不确定的顾客定单、不确定的生产作业时间等 .在当今时间竞争非常激烈的时代中 ,生产型企业如何把握生产系统中的这些不定因素变得尤为关键 .本文研究在不确定的作业时间、工序间延迟时间等情况下的生产作业计划问题 ,利用 scenario模型把这类随机生产计划问题归纳为一个多阶段随机决策问题 .进而 ,采用Lagrangian松弛和 scenario分解的方法求解这样一个大型的决策问题 .最后 ,就一个实例建立模型、进行计算和分析 ,以说明本文提出的随机生产计划方法的特点和有效性     

只有输出的广义样本区间DEA模型

在应用多个绩效指标综合评价决策单元有效性时，决策者常常把这些决策单元与另外预先指定的标准（样本单元）进行比较。由于客观事物的复杂性和不确定性导致样本单元和决策单元的指标信息有时必须用区间数的形式给出。针对区间数指标信息的综合评价问题，本文通过分解的方法讨论样本单元和决策单元指标信息为区间数时用广义DEA模型评价决策单元有效性的方法，并相应地构建了只有输出的广义区间DEA模型。同时，对模型的含义、求解以及性质等进行了分析。之后，探讨了该方法在决策单元有效性分类和排序中的应用。最后，通过实例表明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Budgets for integrating decentralized investment and production planning

Planning for an economic enterprise can be dichotomized into short-run production planning and longer-run investment planning. Usually these problems are treated as if they were separate, if not independent. This paper briefly reviews the separate approaches to optimal production decision making and investment planning, ‘fusing’ these models in order to consider the two issues simultaneously. The resulting ‘fused’ model is used to illustrate several difficulties which result from an intuitive synthesis of the independent solutions of the production problem and the investment problem. An integrated model is presented representing a centralized simultaneous solution for decision variables from the two functional fields. The paper compares and contrasts the synthesis of separate functional models to the decomposition of a simultaneous model of those functional areas. A result of this comparison is a theoretical justification for operating budgets and revenue targets as organizational mechanisms for achieving coordinated plans among decentralized planning units. Further, the set of conditions are identified under which the two approaches to simultaneous decision making are equivalent.     

Performance Evaluation of Enterprise Knowledge Management based on Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making

Given that the classical performance evaluation models can not deal with the group decision making problems since they simply average the index, we propose an enterprise knowledge management evaluation model based on multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM). Find the differences between Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) and meth- ods for uncertain decision making. Also, analyze the multiple attribute group decision making process and implement the al. gorithm. Finally, apply the method on performance evaluation of four enterprises and make sensitivity analysis towards the evaluation results.     

System dynamics: Portraying bounded rationality

This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie School in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication with other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon's ‘principle of bounded rationality’ which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester's ‘Market Growth Model’ is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model formulation reveals decision functions involving simple rules of thumb and limited information content. Finally, there is a discussion of the implications of Carnegie philosophy for system dynamics as it affects communication, model structuring, model analysis and future research.     

考虑安全性的层次分析法

本文从决策的现实特点出发,提出了安全矩阵、风险矩阵、安全指数等一系列概念;并进一步给出了在运用决策方法(如:AHP等)时考虑安全性的具体方法。该方法(1)可表示、度量、计算、分析决策结果对安全性要求的具体程度;(2)可解决某些AHP无法直接解决的决策问题;(3)可使决策者对决策结果有重要的安全感。值得指出的是,本文给出了安全指数的解析表达式,并解决了式中参数的辩识问题,从而使本方法更具实用价值。     

基于贝叶斯网络推理的双重不确定信息集结模型

针对一类不确定多属性决策问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络推理的信息集结决策模型。根据决策依据信息,建立了决策方案综合属性值优劣的范围估计模型;由影响方案属性的因素构成的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构图,建立了基于贝叶斯推理的方案综合属性值确定模型;基于两类信息的内在关联性,提出了两种结果集结的最大相似度模型,最后得出方案综合属性值,算例表明基于贝叶斯网络推理的双重不确定信息集结模型是有效的。     

Understanding the Participation of Critical Task Specialists in Strategic Decision Making*

This paper explores the role of critical task specialists in strategic decision making and presents a theoretical model relating critical task specialist participation in decision making to the organization's overall strategy and the nature of the decision. This exploratory study examines scope and intensity of physician participation in hospital decision making. Intensity of critical task specialist participation is explained by content of the decision and by the organization's strategy, while scope of participation is explained by decision content. The findings suggest the need for more complex models of participation than are normally used in decision-making research. The findings also suggest that executives, in managing strategic decision-making processes, should pay attention to questions of both scope and intensity of participation. The results suggest that critical task specialists play a different role in the decision process, depending on specific decision content and organization strategy.     

The Effects of Task Information and Outcome Feedback on Individuals' Insight into Their Decision Models

When making business decisions, people generally receive some form of guidance. Often, this guidance might be in the form of instructions about which inputs to the decision are most important. Alternatively, it might be outcome feedback concerning the appropriateness of their decisions. When people receive guidance in making difficult judgments, it is important that they do not confuse this guidance with insight into their own decision models. This study examined whether people confuse their actual decision model with task information and outcome feedback. Subjects predicted the likelihood that various hypothetical companies would experience financial distress and then reported the decision models they believed they had used. Their reported models were compared with their actual models as estimated by a regression of the subjects' predictions on the inputs to their decisions. In a 2times2 factorial design, some subjects were provided with task information regarding the relative importance of each input to their decisions while others were not. Some subjects were provided with outcome feedback regarding the quality of their decisions while others were not. The subjects tended to confuse the task information and outcome feedback with their actual decision models. Implications for the results are discussed.     

一种基于区间直觉梯形模糊数偏好的大群体决策冲突测度研究

针对决策偏好为区间直觉梯形模糊数的大群体决策冲突测度问题,首先给出了两个区间直觉梯形模糊数的距离,提出了群体成员冲突函数,基于该函数对大群体成员偏好进行聚类形成若干聚集,以此为基础提出了聚集冲突测度模型并集结为群体冲突测度模型,然后应用于大群体偏好集结。最后通过一个算例对模型进行了验证。该模型便于大群体意见的分析与协调,适用于群决策支持系统,在应急决策中具有实际应用价值。